MLB matchup analysis
Astros vs Athletics Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Saturday, September 26, 2026 at Sutter Health Park · 9:40 PM ET
Leo decision: Pass on Astros vs Athletics
The case for Houston Astros
The case for Athletics
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
The combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Final result
Astros 13, Athletics 2
How the analysis held up
Houston Astros won, the side Leo's model favored.
Leo's two internal reads disagreed pregame by 66.3 points — the team-strength model favored Houston Astros, the run-projection model favored Athletics. The team-strength model had the winner here.
Hayden Wesneski (Houston Astros), the starter Leo's pitcher score favored, actually outpitched Jack Perkins: 7.0 IP, 1 ER (1.29 ERA) against 5.0 IP, 6 ER (10.80 ERA). The edge held up.
The Houston Astros bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (High risk). In relief it actually allowed 0 earned runs over 2.0 innings (0.00 ERA) — the risk read did not show up on the scoreboard tonight. Note: 1 of the runs charged to the Houston Astros pitching staff overall was unearned — not something the bullpen's stuff should be blamed for.
The Athletics bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (Tired). In relief it actually allowed 7 earned runs over 4.0 innings (15.75 ERA) — the risk read showed up.
Houston Astros scored 13, 9.2 more than the 3.8 pregame projection.
Athletics scored 2, 3.4 fewer than the 5.4 pregame projection.
Game information
| Matchup | Houston Astros at Athletics |
|---|---|
| Date | Saturday, September 26, 2026 |
| First pitch | 9:40 PM ET |
| Venue | Sutter Health Park |
| Starting pitchers | Hayden Wesneski vs Jack Perkins |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 76°F, 0% precipitation chance, 4 mph wind from SW. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Astros | Athletics |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 5⅓ | 4⅔ |
| Throws | R | R |
| Leo pitcher score (higher is better) | 67 | 49 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 3.50 | 5.90 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.15 | 1.45 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 6.8 | 10.2 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 10.0% | 16.0% |
| K% (higher is better) | 18.7% | 25.2% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 8.7% | 9.2% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 3.2 | 3.7 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 0.7 | 1.6 |
| Ground-ball rate | 44.7% | 42.9% |
| Fly-ball rate | 55.3% | 57.1% |
Pitcher edge: Leo gives Hayden Wesneski a 18-point edge over Jack Perkins, driven mainly by ERA (3.50 vs 5.90) and HR/9 (0.67 vs 1.55).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Astros are 4-6 in their last 10 and averaging 3.9 runs per game over the last 15 days; Athletics are 3-7 in their last 10 and averaging 4.3 runs per game over the last 15 days. On the season Astros carry the better run differential per game (-0.25 against -1.42).
| Metric | Astros | Athletics |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 4-6 | 3-7 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 4-6 on the road | 6-4 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.753 | 0.743 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.327 | 0.328 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 3.9 | 4.3 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 24.4% | 21.4% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Astros | Athletics |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.744 (+0.013 vs szn) | 0.722 |
| Runs per game | 4.18 (-0.325 vs szn) | 4.22 (-0.119 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.324 | 0.319 |
| K% (lower is better) | 23.3% (+1.3% vs szn) | 21.7% (-0.7% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Astros have been the better offense, 0.324 wOBA to 0.319.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Astros | Athletics |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 79-81 | 64-96 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | -0.25 | -1.42 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.50 | 4.34 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.76 | 5.76 |
| Season OPS | 0.727 | 0.722 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 22.0% | 22.4% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.734 | 0.723 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Astros and Athletics are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Astros | Athletics |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 9.6/10, High risk | 7.4/10, Tired |
| Efficiency | 4.8/10, Average | 3.7/10, Below average |
| Combined risk | 9.7/10, High risk | 8.1/10, Tired |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 32.3 | 27.0 |
| Back-to-back arms | 5 | 4 |
| 7-day ERA | 4.45 | 5.33 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.36 | 1.74 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model and market are close. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
More games today
All matchups →Every Leo pick, graded in public
Free daily model card by email, or open today's full slate. Membership adds delivery before first pitch.
Model outputs are not guarantees. Leo provides analysis and education only. Every official pick remains visible on the Results page. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.