MLB matchup analysis
Astros vs Phillies Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Wednesday, September 9, 2026 at Citizens Bank Park · 6:40 PM ET
Leo prediction: Philadelphia Phillies moneyline
The case for Philadelphia Phillies
The case for Houston Astros
What to watch
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
Philadelphia Phillies is an official moneyline pick because it clears both gates: 67.8% model win probability and 7.4/10 Lab Rating. Leo projects 67.8% against a 60.8% no-vig market number, a 7.0% model edge at -172. Philadelphia Phillies owns the starting pitcher edge by 11 points. Bullpen read: Neutral. Philadelphia Phillies's pen efficiency: Below average (3.9/10). Lineup check: Philadelphia Phillies is a touch below its season form (-0.041 OPS); Houston Astros is a touch below its season form (-0.032 OPS).
Final result
Astros 7, Phillies 11
How the analysis held up
Philadelphia Phillies won, the side Leo's model favored.
Cristopher Sánchez (Philadelphia Phillies) was Leo's favored starter by pitcher score, but Hunter Brown actually pitched better tonight: 5.0 IP, 4 ER (7.20 ERA) against 6.0 IP, 6 ER (9.00 ERA). The edge did not show up in this game. Both starters struggled; this was not a case of one clean outing beating one bad one.
The Houston Astros bullpen was not flagged pregame, but it had a night worth noting: 5 earned runs allowed over 3.0 relief innings (15.00 ERA) — quietly worse than the pregame read implied. Note: 2 of the runs charged to the Houston Astros pitching staff overall were unearned — not something the bullpen's stuff should be blamed for.
Houston Astros scored 7, 5 more than the 2 pregame projection.
Philadelphia Phillies scored 11, 7 more than the 4 pregame projection.
Game information
| Matchup | Houston Astros at Philadelphia Phillies |
|---|---|
| Date | Wednesday, September 9, 2026 |
| First pitch | 6:40 PM ET |
| Venue | Citizens Bank Park |
| Starting pitchers | Hunter Brown vs Cristopher Sánchez |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 81°F, 0% precipitation chance, 8 mph wind from S. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Astros | Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 5⅓ | 6⅓ |
| Throws | R | L |
| Leo pitcher score (higher is better) | 66 | 76 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 3.52 | 2.79 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.30 | 1.21 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 9.8 | 10.1 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 14.0% | 21.6% |
| K% (higher is better) | 25.9% | 27.0% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 11.9% | 5.4% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 4.5 | 2.0 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.1 | 0.8 |
| Ground-ball rate | 61.1% | 65.4% |
| Fly-ball rate | 38.9% | 34.6% |
Pitcher edge: Leo gives Cristopher Sánchez a 10-point edge over Hunter Brown, driven mainly by BB/9 (2.0 vs 4.5) and K-BB% (21.6% vs 14.0%).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Both sides arrive in similar form. Astros are 6-4 in their last 10 and averaging 4.1 runs per game over the last 15 days; Phillies are 6-4 in their last 10 and averaging 3.5 runs per game over the last 15 days. On the season Phillies carry the better run differential per game (+0.26 against -0.28).
| Metric | Astros | Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 6-4 | 6-4 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 6-4 on the road | 7-3 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.691 | 0.671 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.304 | 0.298 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 4.1 | 3.5 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 22.1% | 20.8% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Astros | Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.677 (-0.048 vs szn) | 0.736 (+0.023 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 4.07 (-0.446 vs szn) | 4.81 (+0.308 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.296 (-0.022 vs szn) | 0.325 (+0.010 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 22.7% (+1.1% vs szn) | 18.4% (-3.7% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Phillies have been the better offense, 0.325 wOBA to 0.296. They are running hot against their own season line (+0.010 wOBA).
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Astros | Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 74-71 | 81-64 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | -0.28 | +0.26 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.52 | 4.51 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.80 | 4.25 |
| Season OPS | 0.723 | 0.712 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 21.7% | 22.1% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.703 | 0.712 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Astros and Phillies are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Astros | Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 6.1/10, Normal | 4.4/10, Normal |
| Efficiency | 6.7/10, Effective | 3.9/10, Below average |
| Combined risk | 5.3/10, Normal | 5.0/10, Normal |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 19.7 | 13.0 |
| Back-to-back arms | 6 | 5 |
| 7-day ERA | 1.83 | 6.23 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.12 | 1.23 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 2.6 runs below the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
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