MLB teams · NL East · 2026 season
Washington Nationals 2026: every game Leo analyzed
Leo analyzed 62 Washington Nationals games with a final result between July 10 and September 26, 2026. The Nationals went 26-36 in them. Leo gave the Nationals better than an even chance in 29 of those games, and they won 16. When Leo had them below 50%, they won 10 of 33. Leo's average win chance for the Nationals was 51%. The side Leo favored won 39 of the 62 games where Leo favored a side.
Most used starters
Starts Leo analyzed (postseason included), the Nationals record in them, and Leo’s average win chance for the Nationals on those days.
| Starter | Starts | Team record | Leo’s avg chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cade Cavalli | 13 | 10-3 | 59% |
| Andrew Alvarez | 10 | 5-5 | 52% |
| Jake Irvin | 9 | 3-6 | 46% |
| Jackson Kent | 6 | 1-5 | 36% |
| Carson Palmquist | 4 | 0-4 | 55% |
Every game
- Leo’s chance is Leo’s win chance for the Nationals, from its last read saved before first pitch.
- Leo favored is the team Leo gave the better chance to win.
- Nationals result is whether the Nationals won or lost.
- Leo’s read is Right when the team Leo favored won, and Wrong when it lost.
Newest first. Opponents link to the full game analysis where one exists.
| Date | Opponent | Leo’s chance (Nationals) | Leo favored | Nationals result | Leo’s read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 26 | vs Mets | 68% | Nationals | Lost | Wrong |
| Sep 25 | vs Mets | 72% | Nationals | Won | Right |
| Sep 22 | at Tigers | 30% | Tigers | Won | Wrong |
| Sep 21 | at Tigers | 46% | Tigers | Lost | Right |
| Sep 20 | at Cardinals | 38% | Cardinals | Lost | Right |
| Sep 19 | at Cardinals | 59% | Nationals | Won | Right |
| Sep 18 | at Cardinals | 62% | Nationals | Won | Right |
| Sep 16 | vs Phillies | 27% | Phillies | Lost | Right |
| Sep 13 | vs Angels | 27% | Angels | Won | Wrong |
| Sep 12 | vs Angels | 36% | Angels | Won | Wrong |
| Sep 11 | vs Angels | 72% | Nationals | Won | Right |
| Sep 9 | at Padres | 27% | Padres | Lost | Right |
| Sep 8 | at Padres | 28% | Padres | Lost | Right |
| Sep 7 | at Padres | 30% | Padres | Lost | Right |
| Sep 6 | at Dodgers | 38% | Dodgers | Lost | Right |
| Sep 5 | at Dodgers | 39% | Dodgers | Lost | Right |
| Sep 4 | at Dodgers | 27% | Dodgers | Lost | Right |
| Sep 1 | vs Braves | 68% | Nationals | Won | Right |
| Aug 31 | vs Marlins | 62% | Nationals | Won | Right |
| Aug 30 | vs Marlins | 49.7% | Marlins | Lost | Right |
| Aug 29 | vs Marlins | 54% | Nationals | Won | Right |
| Aug 28 | vs Marlins | 27% | Marlins | Won | Wrong |
| Aug 27 | vs Rockies | 57% | Nationals | Won | Right |
| Aug 26 | vs Rockies | 29% | Rockies | Lost | Right |
| Aug 25 | vs Rockies | 67% | Nationals | Lost | Wrong |
| Aug 24 | vs Rockies | 72% | Nationals | Won | Right |
| Aug 23 | at Marlins | 68% | Nationals | Lost | Wrong |
| Aug 22 | at Marlins | 26% | Marlins | Lost | Right |
| Aug 21 | at Marlins | 73% | Nationals | Lost | Wrong |
| Aug 20 | at Rangers | 38% | Rangers | Lost | Right |
| Aug 19 | at Rangers | 72% | Nationals | Won | Right |
| Aug 18 | at Rangers | 26% | Rangers | Lost | Right |
| Aug 16 | at Mets | 26% | Mets | Lost | Right |
| Aug 15 | at Mets | 48% | Mets | Lost | Right |
| Aug 14 | at Mets | 51% | Nationals | Lost | Wrong |
| Aug 13 | vs Cubs | 41% | Cubs | Won | Wrong |
| Aug 12 | vs Cubs | 42% | Cubs | Lost | Right |
| Aug 11 | vs Cubs | 44% | Cubs | Lost | Right |
| Aug 9 | vs Reds | 49% | Reds | Won | Wrong |
| Aug 8 | vs Reds | 45% | Reds | Won | Wrong |
| Aug 7 | vs Reds | 46% | Reds | Won | Wrong |
| Aug 6 | at Phillies | 43% | Phillies | Lost | Right |
| Aug 5 | at Phillies | 45% | Phillies | Won | Wrong |
| Aug 4 | at Phillies | 45% | Phillies | Lost | Right |
| Aug 3 | at Phillies | 63% | Nationals | No result | |
| Aug 2 | at Braves | 68% | Nationals | Lost | Wrong |
| Aug 1 | at Braves | 34% | Braves | No result | |
| Jul 31 | at Braves | 48% | Braves | Lost | Right |
| Jul 30 | at Braves | 77% | Nationals | Lost | Wrong |
| Jul 29 | vs Blue Jays | 69% | Nationals | Lost | Wrong |
| Jul 28 | vs Blue Jays | 77% | Nationals | Won | Right |
| Jul 27 | vs Blue Jays | 83% | Nationals | Lost | Wrong |
| Jul 26 | vs Diamondbacks | 44% | Diamondbacks | Won | Wrong |
| Jul 25 | vs Diamondbacks | 51% | Nationals | Won | Right |
| Jul 24 | vs Diamondbacks | 53% | Nationals | Lost | Wrong |
| Jul 22 | at Rockies | 56% | Nationals | Won | Right |
| Jul 21 | at Rockies | 65% | Nationals | Lost | Wrong |
| Jul 20 | at Rockies | 67% | Nationals | Won | Right |
| Jul 19 | at Athletics | 74% | Nationals | Won | Right |
| Jul 18 | at Athletics | 61% | Nationals | Lost | Wrong |
| Jul 17 | at Athletics | 61% | Nationals | Won | Right |
| Jul 12 | vs Yankees | 49% | Yankees | Lost | Right |
| Jul 11 | vs Yankees | 49.6% | Yankees | Lost | Right |
| Jul 10 | vs Yankees | 56% | Nationals | Lost | Wrong |
| Jul 7 | vs Astros | 73% | Nationals | No result |
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