MLB teams · NL East · 2026 season
Miami Marlins 2026: every game Leo analyzed
Leo analyzed 66 Miami Marlins games with a final result between July 10 and September 27, 2026. The Marlins went 28-38 in them. Leo gave the Marlins better than an even chance in 30 of those games, and they won 14. When Leo had them below 50%, they won 14 of 36. Leo's average win chance for the Marlins was 47%. The side Leo favored won 36 of the 66 games where Leo favored a side.
Most used starters
Starts Leo analyzed (postseason included), the Marlins record in them, and Leo’s average win chance for the Marlins on those days.
| Starter | Starts | Team record | Leo’s avg chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sandy Alcantara | 14 | 3-11 | 52% |
| Janson Junk | 13 | 7-6 | 45% |
| Eury Pérez | 13 | 6-7 | 53% |
| Ryan Gusto | 12 | 7-5 | 46% |
| Tyler Phillips | 11 | 5-6 | 43% |
Every game
- Leo’s chance is Leo’s win chance for the Marlins, from its last read saved before first pitch.
- Leo favored is the team Leo gave the better chance to win.
- Marlins result is whether the Marlins won or lost.
- Leo’s read is Right when the team Leo favored won, and Wrong when it lost.
Newest first. Opponents link to the full game analysis where one exists.
| Date | Opponent | Leo’s chance (Marlins) | Leo favored | Marlins result | Leo’s read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 27 | vs Braves | 66% | Marlins | Won | Right |
| Sep 26 | vs Braves | 36% | Braves | Lost | Right |
| Sep 25 | vs Braves | 30% | Braves | Won | Wrong |
| Sep 23 | at Cubs | 39% | Cubs | Won | Wrong |
| Sep 22 | at Cubs | 30% | Cubs | Won | Wrong |
| Sep 20 | at Padres | 58% | Marlins | Lost | Wrong |
| Sep 19 | at Padres | 36% | Padres | Lost | Right |
| Sep 18 | at Padres | 32% | Padres | Lost | Right |
| Sep 16 | at Diamondbacks | 62% | Marlins | Won | Right |
| Sep 15 | at Diamondbacks | 31% | Diamondbacks | Won | Wrong |
| Sep 14 | at Diamondbacks | 27% | Diamondbacks | Lost | Right |
| Sep 13 | vs Dodgers | 58% | Marlins | Won | Right |
| Sep 12 | vs Dodgers | 31% | Dodgers | Won | Wrong |
| Sep 11 | vs Dodgers | 61% | Marlins | Lost | Wrong |
| Sep 9 | vs Mets | 73% | Marlins | Lost | Wrong |
| Sep 8 | vs Mets | 66% | Marlins | Lost | Wrong |
| Sep 6 | vs Cubs | 32% | Cubs | Won | Wrong |
| Sep 5 | vs Cubs | 36% | Cubs | Lost | Right |
| Sep 4 | vs Cubs | 38% | Cubs | Lost | Right |
| Sep 3 | at Royals | 42% | Royals | Lost | Right |
| Sep 2 | at Royals | 58% | Marlins | Won | Right |
| Sep 1 | at Royals | 40% | Royals | Won | Wrong |
| Aug 31 | at Nationals | 38% | Nationals | Lost | Right |
| Aug 30 | at Nationals | 50.3% | Marlins | Won | Right |
| Aug 29 | at Nationals | 46% | Nationals | Lost | Right |
| Aug 28 | at Nationals | 73% | Marlins | Lost | Wrong |
| Aug 26 | vs Red Sox | 29% | Red Sox | Won | Wrong |
| Aug 25 | vs Red Sox | 31% | Red Sox | Lost | Right |
| Aug 24 | vs Red Sox | 48% | Red Sox | Lost | Right |
| Aug 23 | vs Nationals | 32% | Nationals | Won | Wrong |
| Aug 22 | vs Nationals | 74% | Marlins | Won | Right |
| Aug 21 | vs Nationals | 27% | Nationals | Won | Wrong |
| Aug 19 | at Phillies | 73% | Marlins | Lost | Wrong |
| Aug 18 | at Phillies | 26% | Phillies | Lost | Right |
| Aug 17 | at Phillies | 26% | Phillies | Lost | Right |
| Aug 16 | at Reds | 74% | Marlins | Won | Right |
| Aug 15 | at Reds | 54% | Marlins | Won | Right |
| Aug 14 | at Reds | 52% | Marlins | Lost | Wrong |
| Aug 13 | vs Pirates | 59% | Marlins | Lost | Wrong |
| Aug 12 | vs Pirates | 56% | Marlins | Won | Right |
| Aug 11 | vs Pirates | 54% | Marlins | Won | Right |
| Aug 9 | vs Angels | 58% | Marlins | Won | Right |
| Aug 8 | vs Angels | 56% | Marlins | Won | Right |
| Aug 7 | vs Angels | 55% | Marlins | Lost | Wrong |
| Aug 6 | at Braves | 42% | Braves | Lost | Right |
| Aug 5 | at Braves | 45% | Braves | Lost | Right |
| Aug 4 | at Braves | 40% | Braves | Lost | Right |
| Aug 2 | at Mets | 56% | Marlins | Won | Right |
| Aug 1 | at Mets | 42% | Mets | Won | Wrong |
| Jul 31 | at Mets | 41% | Mets | Won | Wrong |
| Jul 30 | at Mets | 36% | Mets | Lost | Right |
| Jul 29 | vs Phillies | 40% | Phillies | Won | Wrong |
| Jul 28 | vs Phillies | 54% | Marlins | Won | Right |
| Jul 27 | vs Phillies | 34% | Phillies | Won | Wrong |
| Jul 26 | vs Padres | 41% | Padres | Lost | Right |
| Jul 25 | vs Padres | 51% | Marlins | Lost | Wrong |
| Jul 24 | vs Padres | 61% | Marlins | Lost | Wrong |
| Jul 22 | at Astros | 45% | Astros | Lost | Right |
| Jul 21 | at Astros | 62% | Marlins | Lost | Wrong |
| Jul 20 | at Astros | 53% | Marlins | Lost | Wrong |
| Jul 19 | at Brewers | 42% | Brewers | Lost | Right |
| Jul 18 | at Brewers | 39% | Brewers | Lost | Right |
| Jul 17 | at Brewers | 37% | Brewers | Lost | Right |
| Jul 12 | vs Guardians | 58% | Marlins | Lost | Wrong |
| Jul 11 | vs Guardians | 63% | Marlins | Lost | Wrong |
| Jul 10 | vs Guardians | 61% | Marlins | Lost | Wrong |
| Jul 9 | vs Mariners | 49% | Mariners | No result | |
| Jul 7 | vs Mariners | 63% | Marlins | No result |
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The 2027 season starts March 25, 2027. Until then, see all 30 teams, every MLB game page and Leo’s NFL and NBA cards.