MLB teams · NL East · 2026 season
New York Mets 2026: every game Leo analyzed
Leo analyzed 65 New York Mets games with a final result between July 10 and September 26, 2026. The Mets went 33-32 in them. Leo gave the Mets better than an even chance in 29 of those games, and they won 18. When Leo had them below 50%, they won 15 of 36. Leo's average win chance for the Mets was 47%. The side Leo favored won 39 of the 65 games where Leo favored a side.
Most used starters
Starts Leo analyzed (postseason included), the Mets record in them, and Leo’s average win chance for the Mets on those days.
| Starter | Starts | Team record | Leo’s avg chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nolan McLean | 13 | 7-6 | 56% |
| Christian Scott | 12 | 7-5 | 51% |
| Sean Manaea | 11 | 6-5 | 44% |
| Zac Thornton | 11 | 6-5 | 52% |
| Robert Stock | 7 | 4-3 | 36% |
Every game
- Leo’s chance is Leo’s win chance for the Mets, from its last read saved before first pitch.
- Leo favored is the team Leo gave the better chance to win.
- Mets result is whether the Mets won or lost.
- Leo’s read is Right when the team Leo favored won, and Wrong when it lost.
Newest first. Opponents link to the full game analysis where one exists.
| Date | Opponent | Leo’s chance (Mets) | Leo favored | Mets result | Leo’s read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 26 | at Nationals | 32% | Nationals | Won | Wrong |
| Sep 25 | at Nationals | 28% | Nationals | Lost | Right |
| Sep 23 | at Rangers | 72% | Mets | Won | Right |
| Sep 22 | at Rangers | 52% | Mets | Won | Right |
| Sep 20 | vs Phillies | 33% | Phillies | Lost | Right |
| Sep 19 | vs Phillies | 71% | Mets | Won | Right |
| Sep 18 | vs Phillies | 71% | Mets | Won | Right |
| Sep 17 | vs Phillies | 68% | Mets | Lost | Wrong |
| Sep 16 | vs Orioles | 66% | Mets | Lost | Wrong |
| Sep 14 | vs Orioles | 33% | Orioles | Lost | Right |
| Sep 13 | at Yankees | 27% | Yankees | Lost | Right |
| Sep 12 | at Yankees | 34% | Yankees | Won | Wrong |
| Sep 11 | at Yankees | 51% | Mets | Lost | Wrong |
| Sep 9 | at Marlins | 27% | Marlins | Won | Wrong |
| Sep 8 | at Marlins | 34% | Marlins | Won | Wrong |
| Sep 6 | vs Giants | 31% | Giants | Won | Wrong |
| Sep 5 | vs Giants | 59% | Mets | Lost | Wrong |
| Sep 4 | vs Giants | 70% | Mets | Won | Right |
| Sep 2 | at Rays | 27% | Rays | Won | Wrong |
| Sep 1 | at Rays | 58% | Mets | Lost | Wrong |
| Aug 31 | at Rays | 27% | Rays | Won | Wrong |
| Aug 30 | vs Astros | 72% | Mets | Lost | Wrong |
| Aug 29 | vs Astros | 72% | Mets | Won | Right |
| Aug 28 | vs Astros | 54% | Mets | Lost | Wrong |
| Aug 27 | vs Brewers | 27% | Brewers | Lost | Right |
| Aug 26 | vs Brewers | 28% | Brewers | Lost | Right |
| Aug 25 | vs Brewers | 35% | Brewers | Won | Wrong |
| Aug 23 | at White Sox | 42% | White Sox | Lost | Right |
| Aug 22 | at White Sox | 70% | Mets | Won | Right |
| Aug 21 | at White Sox | 29% | White Sox | Lost | Right |
| Aug 19 | vs Padres | 26% | Padres | Won | Wrong |
| Aug 18 | vs Padres | 67% | Mets | Lost | Wrong |
| Aug 17 | vs Padres | 74% | Mets | Won | Right |
| Aug 16 | vs Nationals | 74% | Mets | Won | Right |
| Aug 15 | vs Nationals | 52% | Mets | Won | Right |
| Aug 14 | vs Nationals | 49% | Nationals | Won | Wrong |
| Aug 12 | at Braves | 43% | Braves | Lost | Right |
| Aug 11 | at Braves | 47% | Braves | Lost | Right |
| Aug 10 | at Braves | 46% | Braves | Won | Wrong |
| Aug 9 | at Pirates | 50.1% | Mets | Won | Right |
| Aug 8 | at Pirates | 54% | Mets | Lost | Wrong |
| Aug 7 | at Pirates | 53% | Mets | Won | Right |
| Aug 6 | at Guardians | 53% | Mets | Won | Right |
| Aug 5 | at Guardians | 56% | Mets | Won | Right |
| Aug 4 | at Guardians | 54% | Mets | Won | Right |
| Aug 2 | vs Marlins | 44% | Marlins | Lost | Right |
| Aug 1 | vs Marlins | 58% | Mets | Lost | Wrong |
| Jul 31 | vs Marlins | 60% | Mets | Lost | Wrong |
| Jul 30 | vs Marlins | 64% | Mets | Won | Right |
| Jul 29 | vs Braves | 54% | Mets | Won | Right |
| Jul 29 | vs Braves | 46% | Braves | Lost | Right |
| Jul 28 | vs Braves | 46% | Braves | Lost | Right |
| Jul 27 | vs Braves | 43% | Braves | Won | Wrong |
| Jul 26 | vs Dodgers | 33% | Dodgers | Won | Wrong |
| Jul 25 | vs Dodgers | 34% | Dodgers | Lost | Right |
| Jul 24 | vs Dodgers | 43% | Dodgers | Lost | Right |
| Jul 22 | at Brewers | 35% | Brewers | Lost | Right |
| Jul 21 | at Brewers | 32% | Brewers | Won | Wrong |
| Jul 20 | at Brewers | 25% | Brewers | Lost | Right |
| Jul 19 | at Phillies | 45% | Phillies | Won | Wrong |
| Jul 18 | at Phillies | 37% | Phillies | Lost | Right |
| Jul 16 | at Phillies | 52% | Mets | Won | Right |
| Jul 12 | vs Red Sox | 32% | Red Sox | Lost | Right |
| Jul 11 | vs Red Sox | 37% | Red Sox | Lost | Right |
| Jul 10 | vs Red Sox | 36% | Red Sox | Lost | Right |
| Jul 9 | vs Royals | 48% | Royals | No result | |
| Jul 7 | vs Royals | 57% | Mets | No result |
More from the NL East
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The 2027 season starts March 25, 2027. Until then, see all 30 teams, every MLB game page and Leo’s NFL and NBA cards.