MLB matchup analysis
Angels vs Nationals Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Sunday, September 13, 2026 at Nationals Park · 1:35 PM ET
Leo decision: Pass on Angels vs Nationals
The case for Los Angeles Angels
The case for Washington Nationals
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
This is a bullpen game -- no confirmed traditional starter, so Leo does not publish an official pick here.
Final result
Angels 5, Nationals 6
How the analysis held up
Washington Nationals won. Leo's model favored the other side.
Grayson Rodriguez (Los Angeles Angels) was Leo's favored starter by pitcher score, but Riley Cornelio actually pitched better tonight: 2.0 IP, 0 ER (0.00 ERA) against 5.1 IP, 2 ER (3.38 ERA). The edge did not show up in this game.
The Los Angeles Angels bullpen was not flagged pregame, but it had a night worth noting: 4 earned runs allowed over 2.2 relief innings (13.50 ERA) — quietly worse than the pregame read implied.
The Washington Nationals bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (Tired). In relief it actually allowed 4 earned runs over 7.0 innings (5.14 ERA) — the risk read showed up. Note: 1 of the runs charged to the Washington Nationals pitching staff overall was unearned — not something the bullpen's stuff should be blamed for.
Washington Nationals scored 6, 3.3 more than the 2.7 pregame projection.
Likely driver: the Los Angeles Angels bullpen allowed 4 earned runs over 2.2 relief innings (13.50 ERA), which was not flagged pregame but showed up anyway, and the opposing starter (0.00 ERA) was sharp when the read expected an edge the other way.
Game information
| Matchup | Los Angeles Angels at Washington Nationals |
|---|---|
| Date | Sunday, September 13, 2026 |
| First pitch | 1:35 PM ET |
| Venue | Nationals Park |
| Starting pitchers | Grayson Rodriguez vs Riley Cornelio |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 79°F, 1% precipitation chance, 3 mph wind from SW. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Angels | Nationals |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Opener / bullpen game |
| Expected innings | 4⅔ | 2⅔ |
| Throws | R | R |
| Leo pitcher score (higher is better) | 43 | 45 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 6.10 | 4.88 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.56 | 1.55 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 8.2 | 10.1 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 10.4% | 7.3% |
| K% (higher is better) | 20.1% | 25.0% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 9.7% | 17.7% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 3.9 | 7.2 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| Ground-ball rate | 44.2% | 38.0% |
| Fly-ball rate | 55.8% | 62.0% |
Pitching plan edge: Leo gives Grayson Rodriguez the edge over the Washington Nationals pitching plan (23 points on Leo's pitcher score). Riley Cornelio is projected for only 2⅔ innings, with the Washington Nationals bullpen covering the rest -- this compares Grayson Rodriguez's own line against the Washington Nationals blended starting-pitcher-and-bullpen quality, not two starters directly.
Blended read: For the Washington Nationals, the bullpen is projected to throw more of the game than Riley Cornelio (about 2⅔ innings for the starter), so Leo grades that side on a whole-game effective ERA of 7.21 rather than Riley Cornelio's own 4.88. Whole-game, that is 4.66 for the Los Angeles Angels against 7.21 on the other side, so the blended read leans Los Angeles Angels.
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Neither side is playing well. Angels are 3-7 in their last 10 and averaging 3.7 runs per game over the last 15 days; Nationals are 3-7 in their last 10 and averaging 4.1 runs per game over the last 15 days. On the season Nationals carry the better run differential per game (+0.02 against -0.51).
| Metric | Angels | Nationals |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 3-7 | 3-7 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 3-7 on the road | 8-2 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.658 | 0.664 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.294 | 0.293 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 3.7 | 4.1 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 27.6% | 24.3% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Angels | Nationals |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.642 (-0.038 vs szn) | 0.663 (-0.086 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 3.85 (-0.202 vs szn) | 3.93 (-1.184 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.287 (-0.016 vs szn) | 0.294 (-0.035 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 26.1% (+0.7% vs szn) | 23.4% (+1.6% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Nationals have been the better offense, 0.294 wOBA to 0.287. They are cooling off against their own season line (-0.035 wOBA). Angels are striking out at 26.1% over the window — something the opposing starter can lean on.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Angels | Nationals |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 56-92 | 69-81 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | -0.51 | +0.02 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.05 | 5.11 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.56 | 5.09 |
| Season OPS | 0.680 | 0.749 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 25.4% | 21.8% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.676 | 0.737 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Angels and Nationals are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Angels | Nationals |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 6.5/10, Tired | 6.1/10, Normal |
| Efficiency | 5.8/10, Effective | 2.1/10, Struggling |
| Combined risk | 6.1/10, Normal | 7.6/10, Tired |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 17.3 | 22.0 |
| Back-to-back arms | 4 | 4 |
| 7-day ERA | 3.12 | 7.77 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.21 | 1.82 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model and market are close. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
More games today
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