MLB matchup analysis
Phillies vs Nationals Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at Nationals Park · 6:45 PM ET
Leo decision: Pass on Phillies vs Nationals
The case for Philadelphia Phillies
The case for Washington Nationals
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
This is a bullpen game -- no confirmed traditional starter, so Leo does not publish an official pick here.
Final result
Phillies 3, Nationals 0
How the analysis held up
Philadelphia Phillies won, the side Leo's model favored.
Zack Wheeler (Philadelphia Phillies), the starter Leo's pitcher score favored, actually outpitched Jared Simpson: 7.0 IP, 0 ER (0.00 ERA) against 0.1 IP, 2 ER (54.00 ERA). The edge held up.
The Philadelphia Phillies bullpen was not flagged pregame, but it had a night worth noting: 0 earned runs allowed over 2.0 relief innings (0.00 ERA) — quietly better than the pregame read implied.
The Washington Nationals bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (Tired). In relief it actually allowed 1 earned run over 8.2 innings (1.04 ERA) — the risk read did not show up on the scoreboard tonight.
Philadelphia Phillies scored 3, 1.5 fewer than the 4.5 pregame projection.
Washington Nationals scored 0, 3.2 fewer than the 3.2 pregame projection.
Game information
| Matchup | Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals |
|---|---|
| Date | Wednesday, September 16, 2026 |
| First pitch | 6:45 PM ET |
| Venue | Nationals Park |
| Starting pitchers | Zack Wheeler vs Jared Simpson |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 77°F, 0% precipitation chance, 5 mph wind from SE. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Phillies | Nationals |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Opener / bullpen game |
| Expected innings | 5⅔ | 1 |
| Throws | R | L |
| Leo pitcher score (higher is better) | 78 | 22 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 3.00 | 10.38 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.06 | 1.85 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 10.6 | 8.3 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 21.7% | -15.0% |
| K% (higher is better) | 29.4% | 20.0% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 7.7% | 35.0% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 2.8 | 14.5 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.2 | 0.0 |
| Ground-ball rate | 50.6% | 25.0% |
| Fly-ball rate | 49.4% | 75.0% |
Pitching plan edge: Leo gives Zack Wheeler the edge over the Washington Nationals pitching plan (55 points on Leo's pitcher score). Jared Simpson is projected for only 1 innings, with the Washington Nationals bullpen covering the rest -- this compares Zack Wheeler's own line against the Washington Nationals blended starting-pitcher-and-bullpen quality, not two starters directly.
Blended read: For the Washington Nationals, the bullpen is projected to throw more of the game than Jared Simpson (about 1 innings for the starter), so Leo grades that side on a whole-game effective ERA of 6.79 rather than Jared Simpson's own 10.38. Whole-game, that is 4.34 for the Philadelphia Phillies against 6.79 on the other side, so the blended read leans Philadelphia Phillies.
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Neither side is playing well. Phillies are 4-6 in their last 10 and averaging 4.2 runs per game over the last 15 days; Nationals are 4-6 in their last 10 and averaging 4.3 runs per game over the last 15 days. Season run differential separates them by almost nothing (+0.20 against +0.02).
| Metric | Phillies | Nationals |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 4-6 | 4-6 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 6-4 on the road | 7-3 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.670 | 0.699 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.296 | 0.306 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 4.2 | 4.3 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 20.2% | 25.4% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Phillies | Nationals |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.707 | 0.675 (-0.074 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 4.56 (+0.075 vs szn) | 4.00 (-1.085 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.314 | 0.299 (-0.030 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 17.9% (-4.0% vs szn) | 22.9% (+1.0% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Phillies have been the better offense, 0.314 wOBA to 0.299.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Phillies | Nationals |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 83-68 | 71-81 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | +0.20 | +0.02 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.48 | 5.08 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.28 | 5.07 |
| Season OPS | 0.711 | 0.751 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 21.9% | 21.9% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.710 | 0.739 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Phillies and Nationals are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Phillies | Nationals |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 5.4/10, Normal | 7.1/10, Tired |
| Efficiency | 3.1/10, Below average | 4.5/10, Average |
| Combined risk | 6.4/10, Tired | 7.4/10, Tired |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 20.0 | 24.0 |
| Back-to-back arms | 7 | 3 |
| 7-day ERA | 6.30 | 5.25 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.70 | 1.21 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 4.1 runs above the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
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