MLB matchup analysis
Nationals vs Cardinals Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Saturday, September 19, 2026 at Busch Stadium · 7:15 PM ET
Leo decision: Pass on Nationals vs Cardinals
The case for Washington Nationals
The case for St. Louis Cardinals
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
The combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Final result
Nationals 8, Cardinals 5
How the analysis held up
Washington Nationals won, the side Leo's model favored.
Leo's two internal reads disagreed pregame by 20.4 points — the team-strength model favored Washington Nationals, the run-projection model favored St. Louis Cardinals. The team-strength model had the winner here.
Michael McGreevy (No clear pitching-plan edge) was Leo's favored starter by pitcher score, but Andrew Alvarez actually pitched better tonight: 6.0 IP, 0 ER (0.00 ERA) against 4.0 IP, 2 ER (4.50 ERA). The edge did not show up in this game.
The Washington Nationals bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (Tired). In relief it actually allowed 1 earned run over 5.0 innings (1.80 ERA) — the risk read did not show up on the scoreboard tonight. Note: 4 of the runs charged to the Washington Nationals pitching staff overall were unearned — not something the bullpen's stuff should be blamed for.
The St. Louis Cardinals bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (Tired). In relief it actually allowed 3 earned runs over 7.0 innings (3.86 ERA) — the risk read did not show up on the scoreboard tonight. Note: 3 of the runs charged to the St. Louis Cardinals pitching staff overall were unearned — not something the bullpen's stuff should be blamed for.
Washington Nationals scored 8 in a game that went 11 innings — not compared against the 3.6 pregame projection, which assumed nine.
St. Louis Cardinals scored 5 in a game that went 11 innings — not compared against the 3.8 pregame projection, which assumed nine.
Game information
| Matchup | Washington Nationals at St. Louis Cardinals |
|---|---|
| Date | Saturday, September 19, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:15 PM ET |
| Venue | Busch Stadium |
| Starting pitchers | Andrew Alvarez vs Michael McGreevy |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 88°F, 0% precipitation chance, 4 mph wind from SE. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Nationals | Cardinals |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 5 | 5⅓ |
| Throws | L | R |
| Leo pitcher score (higher is better) | 68 | 65 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 3.26 | 3.85 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.29 | 1.25 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 8.8 | 6.2 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 12.5% | 9.9% |
| K% (higher is better) | 23.4% | 16.7% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 10.9% | 6.8% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 4.1 | 2.5 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 0.4 | 1.2 |
| Ground-ball rate | 56.8% | 51.5% |
| Fly-ball rate | 43.2% | 48.5% |
Pitcher edge: Leo gives Andrew Alvarez a 3-point edge over Michael McGreevy, driven mainly by K/9 (8.8 vs 6.2) and HR/9 (0.43 vs 1.15).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Nationals are 5-5 in their last 10 and averaging 4.3 runs per game over the last 15 days; Cardinals are 3-7 in their last 10 and averaging 4.7 runs per game over the last 15 days. Season run differential separates them by almost nothing (+0.09 against -0.16).
| Metric | Nationals | Cardinals |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 5-5 | 3-7 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 2-8 on the road | 3-7 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.690 | 0.662 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.302 | 0.297 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 4.3 | 4.7 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 23.7% | 21.0% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Nationals | Cardinals |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.680 (-0.068 vs szn) | 0.687 (-0.010 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 4.41 (-0.722 vs szn) | 5.07 (+0.564 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.300 (-0.028 vs szn) | 0.305 |
| K% (lower is better) | 22.5% (+0.8% vs szn) | 22.1% (+1.3% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Cardinals have been the better offense, 0.305 wOBA to 0.300.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Nationals | Cardinals |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 72-82 | 75-79 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | +0.09 | -0.16 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 5.13 | 4.51 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 5.04 | 4.67 |
| Season OPS | 0.749 | 0.697 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 21.8% | 20.8% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.737 | 0.711 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Nationals and Cardinals are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Nationals | Cardinals |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 7.9/10, Tired | 6.9/10, Tired |
| Efficiency | 5.0/10, Average | 4.7/10, Average |
| Combined risk | 7.9/10, Tired | 7.1/10, Tired |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 29.0 | 25.3 |
| Back-to-back arms | 5 | 7 |
| 7-day ERA | 4.03 | 4.26 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.34 | 1.50 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 1.1 runs below the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
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