MLB matchup analysis
Nationals vs Dodgers Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Sunday, September 6, 2026 at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium · 10:10 PM ET
Leo decision: Pass on Nationals vs Dodgers
The case for Los Angeles Dodgers
The case for Washington Nationals
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
The combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Final result
Nationals 5, Dodgers 7
How the analysis held up
Los Angeles Dodgers won, the side Leo's model favored.
Leo's two internal reads disagreed pregame by 27.1 points — the team-strength model favored Los Angeles Dodgers, the run-projection model favored Washington Nationals. The team-strength model had the winner here.
Justin Wrobleski (Los Angeles Dodgers) was Leo's favored starter by pitcher score, but Andrew Alvarez actually pitched better tonight: 4.1 IP, 3 ER (6.23 ERA) against 3.0 IP, 4 ER (12.00 ERA). The edge did not show up in this game. Both starters struggled; this was not a case of one clean outing beating one bad one.
The Washington Nationals bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (Tired). In relief it actually allowed 4 earned runs over 3.2 innings (9.82 ERA) — the risk read showed up.
The Los Angeles Dodgers bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (Tired). In relief it actually allowed 1 earned run over 6.0 innings (1.50 ERA) — the risk read did not show up on the scoreboard tonight.
Los Angeles Dodgers scored 7, 2.3 more than the 4.7 pregame projection.
Game information
| Matchup | Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgers |
|---|---|
| Date | Sunday, September 6, 2026 |
| First pitch | 10:10 PM ET |
| Venue | UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium |
| Starting pitchers | Andrew Alvarez vs Justin Wrobleski |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 73°F, 21% precipitation chance, 5 mph wind from N. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Nationals | Dodgers |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 5 | 6 |
| Throws | L | L |
| Leo pitcher score (higher is better) | 66 | 71 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 3.47 | 3.65 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.31 | 1.11 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 8.5 | 7.3 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 11.8% | 14.3% |
| K% (higher is better) | 22.5% | 19.8% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 10.7% | 5.5% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 4.1 | 2.0 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 0.5 | 1.4 |
| Ground-ball rate | 58.0% | 44.4% |
| Fly-ball rate | 42.0% | 55.6% |
Pitcher edge: Leo gives Justin Wrobleski a 5-point edge over Andrew Alvarez, driven mainly by BB/9 (2.0 vs 4.1) and expected innings (6.1 vs 4.9).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Both sides arrive in similar form. Nationals are 5-5 in their last 10 and averaging 4.6 runs per game over the last 15 days; Dodgers are 5-5 in their last 10 and averaging 4.1 runs per game over the last 15 days. On the season Dodgers carry the better run differential per game (+1.06 against +0.06).
| Metric | Nationals | Dodgers |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 5-5 | 5-5 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 1-9 on the road | 7-3 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.709 | 0.671 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.314 | 0.307 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 4.6 | 4.1 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 22.0% | 20.9% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Nationals | Dodgers |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.705 (-0.049 vs szn) | 0.693 (-0.063 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 4.46 (-0.694 vs szn) | 4.32 (-0.609 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.312 (-0.019 vs szn) | 0.309 (-0.023 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 23.0% (+1.3% vs szn) | 21.0% |
Over the last 30 days the Nationals have been the better offense, 0.312 wOBA to 0.309. They are cooling off against their own season line (-0.019 wOBA).
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Nationals | Dodgers |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 67-77 | 85-57 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | +0.06 | +1.06 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 5.16 | 4.93 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 5.10 | 3.87 |
| Season OPS | 0.754 | 0.756 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 21.8% | 20.6% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.779 | 0.742 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Nationals and Dodgers are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Nationals | Dodgers |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 6.1/10, Normal | 6.8/10, Tired |
| Efficiency | 2.0/10, Struggling | 4.6/10, Average |
| Combined risk | 7.6/10, Tired | 7.0/10, Tired |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 24.7 | 20.3 |
| Back-to-back arms | 5 | 6 |
| 7-day ERA | 9.49 | 5.31 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.62 | 1.13 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 1.7 runs above the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
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