MLB matchup analysis
Angels vs Nationals Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Friday, September 11, 2026 at Nationals Park · 6:45 PM ET
Leo prediction: Washington Nationals moneyline
The case for Washington Nationals
The case for Los Angeles Angels
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
Washington Nationals remains on the watchlist. Lab Rating 7.0/10: conviction 8.26, pitching plan 32, offense 29.81. Leo projects 71.5% against a 51.5% no-vig market number, a 20.0% model edge at -110. Washington Nationals owns the starting pitcher edge by 23 points. Bullpen read: Adds caution. Washington Nationals's pen efficiency: Struggling (2.1/10). Lineup check: Washington Nationals is a touch below its season form (-0.036 OPS); Los Angeles Angels is a touch below its season form (-0.031 OPS).
Final result
Angels 3, Nationals 4
How the analysis held up
Washington Nationals won, the side Leo's model favored.
Leo's two internal reads disagreed pregame by 61.4 points — the team-strength model favored Washington Nationals, the run-projection model favored Los Angeles Angels. The team-strength model had the winner here.
Cade Cavalli (Washington Nationals) was Leo's favored starter by pitcher score, but Yusei Kikuchi actually pitched better tonight: 4.0 IP, 1 ER (2.25 ERA) against 6.0 IP, 2 ER (3.00 ERA). The edge did not show up in this game.
The Los Angeles Angels bullpen was not flagged pregame, but it had a night worth noting: 3 earned runs allowed over 4.0 relief innings (6.75 ERA) — quietly worse than the pregame read implied.
The Washington Nationals bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (Tired). In relief it actually allowed 1 earned run over 3.0 innings (3.00 ERA) — the risk read did not show up on the scoreboard tonight.
Washington Nationals scored 4, 2 more than the 2 pregame projection.
Game information
| Matchup | Los Angeles Angels at Washington Nationals |
|---|---|
| Date | Friday, September 11, 2026 |
| First pitch | 6:45 PM ET |
| Venue | Nationals Park |
| Starting pitchers | Yusei Kikuchi vs Cade Cavalli |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 75°F, 0% precipitation chance, 4 mph wind from E. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Angels | Nationals |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 4⅔ | 5⅓ |
| Throws | L | R |
| Leo pitcher score (higher is better) | 52 | 76 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 4.75 | 3.06 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.49 | 1.15 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 9.2 | 10.6 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 13.1% | 21.5% |
| K% (higher is better) | 22.9% | 28.3% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 9.7% | 6.9% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 3.9 | 2.6 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| Ground-ball rate | 44.6% | 57.9% |
| Fly-ball rate | 55.4% | 42.1% |
Pitcher edge: Leo gives Cade Cavalli a 24-point edge over Yusei Kikuchi, driven mainly by K-BB% (21.5% vs 13.1%) and WHIP (1.15 vs 1.49).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Angels are 4-6 in their last 10 and averaging 3.6 runs per game over the last 15 days; Nationals are 2-8 in their last 10 and averaging 4.5 runs per game over the last 15 days. On the season Nationals carry the better run differential per game (+0.01 against -0.50).
| Metric | Angels | Nationals |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 4-6 | 2-8 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 4-6 on the road | 6-4 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.651 | 0.714 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.291 | 0.313 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 3.6 | 4.5 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 27.2% | 24.0% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Angels | Nationals |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.654 (-0.027 vs szn) | 0.663 (-0.086 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 3.93 (-0.115 vs szn) | 3.96 (-1.136 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.293 (-0.010 vs szn) | 0.294 (-0.035 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 25.4% | 23.5% (+1.6% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Nationals have been the better offense, 0.294 wOBA to 0.293. They are cooling off against their own season line (-0.035 wOBA). Angels are striking out at 25.4% over the window — something the opposing starter can lean on.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Angels | Nationals |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 56-90 | 67-81 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | -0.50 | +0.01 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.04 | 5.10 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.54 | 5.09 |
| Season OPS | 0.682 | 0.750 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 25.3% | 21.9% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.676 | 0.779 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Angels and Nationals are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Angels | Nationals |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 6.1/10, Normal | 6.2/10, Tired |
| Efficiency | 6.5/10, Effective | 2.1/10, Struggling |
| Combined risk | 5.4/10, Normal | 7.7/10, Tired |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 15.0 | 21.0 |
| Back-to-back arms | 4 | 5 |
| 7-day ERA | 1.80 | 7.71 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.27 | 1.86 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 3.1 runs below the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
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