MLB matchup analysis
Mets vs Nationals Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Saturday, September 26, 2026 at Nationals Park · 12:35 PM ET
Leo decision: Pass on Mets vs Nationals
The case for Washington Nationals
The case for New York Mets
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
The combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Final result
Mets 7, Nationals 1
How the analysis held up
New York Mets won. Leo's model favored the other side.
Leo's two internal reads disagreed pregame by 43.3 points — the team-strength model favored Washington Nationals, the run-projection model favored New York Mets. The run-projection model had the winner here.
Connelly Early (Washington Nationals), the starter Leo's pitcher score favored, actually outpitched Jonah Tong: 3.0 IP, 0 ER (0.00 ERA) against 5.0 IP, 1 ER (1.80 ERA). The edge held up. Both starters were sharp; the edge is a narrow one between two good outings.
The New York Mets bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (Tired). In relief it actually allowed 0 earned runs over 4.0 innings (0.00 ERA) — the risk read did not show up on the scoreboard tonight.
The Washington Nationals bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (High risk). In relief it actually allowed 6 earned runs over 6.0 innings (9.00 ERA) — the risk read showed up. Note: 1 of the runs charged to the Washington Nationals pitching staff overall was unearned — not something the bullpen's stuff should be blamed for.
New York Mets scored 7, 1.5 more than the 5.5 pregame projection.
Washington Nationals scored 1, 3.9 fewer than the 4.9 pregame projection.
Likely driver: the Washington Nationals bullpen allowed 6 earned runs over 6.0 relief innings (9.00 ERA), which is exactly the risk flagged pregame, and the New York Mets bullpen quietly shut the game down (0.00 ERA over 4.0 innings).
Game information
| Matchup | New York Mets at Washington Nationals |
|---|---|
| Date | Saturday, September 26, 2026 |
| First pitch | 12:35 PM ET |
| Venue | Nationals Park |
| Starting pitchers | Jonah Tong vs Connelly Early |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 58°F, 38% precipitation chance, 10 mph wind from NW. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Mets | Nationals |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 5⅓ | 5⅓ |
| Throws | R | L |
| Leo pitcher score (higher is better) | 63 | 70 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 3.82 | 3.33 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.24 | 1.23 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 10.0 | 8.9 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 14.9% | 15.0% |
| K% (higher is better) | 25.4% | 23.5% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 10.4% | 8.5% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 4.1 | 3.2 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 0.6 | 1.4 |
| Ground-ball rate | 36.7% | 47.0% |
| Fly-ball rate | 63.3% | 53.0% |
Pitcher edge: Leo gives Connelly Early a 7-point edge over Jonah Tong, driven mainly by BB/9 (3.2 vs 4.1) and ERA (3.33 vs 3.82).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Mets are 4-6 in their last 10 and averaging 4.4 runs per game over the last 15 days; Nationals are 7-3 in their last 10 and averaging 4.8 runs per game over the last 15 days. Season run differential separates them by almost nothing (-0.19 against +0.02).
| Metric | Mets | Nationals |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 4-6 | 7-3 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 6-4 on the road | 7-3 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.711 | 0.683 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.311 | 0.301 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 4.4 | 4.8 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 20.7% | 21.8% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Mets | Nationals |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.736 (+0.032 vs szn) | 0.684 (-0.059 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 5.18 (+0.862 vs szn) | 4.54 (-0.524 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.323 (+0.011 vs szn) | 0.301 (-0.025 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 20.9% (-1.4% vs szn) | 22.9% (+1.1% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Mets have been the better offense, 0.323 wOBA to 0.301. They are running hot against their own season line (+0.011 wOBA).
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Mets | Nationals |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 73-87 | 76-84 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | -0.19 | +0.02 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.32 | 5.06 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.50 | 5.04 |
| Season OPS | 0.703 | 0.745 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 22.3% | 21.8% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.684 | 0.734 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Mets and Nationals are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Mets | Nationals |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 7.6/10, Tired | 8.3/10, High risk |
| Efficiency | 4.9/10, Average | 4.8/10, Average |
| Combined risk | 7.7/10, Tired | 8.4/10, High risk |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 24.7 | 31.3 |
| Back-to-back arms | 4 | 5 |
| 7-day ERA | 4.01 | 3.73 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.42 | 1.60 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 1.6 runs above the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
More games today
All matchups →Every Leo pick, graded in public
Free daily model card by email, or open today's full slate. Membership adds delivery before first pitch.
Model outputs are not guarantees. Leo provides analysis and education only. Every official pick remains visible on the Results page. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.