Week 7 · Sunday 13:00
SF
at
ATL
Mercedes-Benz Stadium · fieldturf
SF moneyline-142
ATL moneyline+120
SpreadSF -2.5
Total50.5
San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons
Every game this week on Leo’s Week 7 card →
This is a pre-game analysis page. Every stat above the Final result comes from games played before this one (through Week 6), and Leo’s numbers were frozen before kickoff. Market numbers are the closing line. Nothing here is a wager — the pick gate stays closed until Leo shows it can beat that line.
Leo’s read
What the model expected, frozen before kickoff (Oct 25, 7:52 AM ET). Each player projection is rate × volume × opponent adjustment — the columns show every input. None of this is a wager.
Leo win chanceSF 63%chance to win; information, not a pick
Leo total51.3points, both teams
Leo marginSF by 6.9expected winning margin
Passing yards
| Player | yds/att | att | opp adj | games | Leo |
|---|
| Brock Purdy SF QB1 |
8.3 | 29.3 | 1.1 | 6 |
254 |
| Michael Penix Jr. ATL QB1 |
8.1 | 28.6 | 1 | 4 |
221 |
Rushing yards
| Player | yds/carry | car | opp adj | games | Leo |
|---|
| Bijan Robinson ATL RB1 |
5.2 | 22.3 | 0.9 | 6 |
99 |
| Christian McCaffrey SF RB1 |
4.1 | 13.6 | 1 | 6 |
55 |
| Kaelon Black SF RB2 |
4.2 | 7.5 | 1 | 6 |
32 |
Receiving yards
| Player | yds/tgt | tgt | opp adj | games | Leo |
|---|
| Drake London ATL WR1 |
11.2 | 8.2 | 1 | 6 |
95 |
| Jahan Dotson ATL WR2 |
13.9 | 3.4 | 1 | 6 |
50 |
| Jordan Watkins SF WR2 |
18.6 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 2 |
36 |
| Brandin Cooks SF WR1 |
4.4 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 3 |
14 |
| Jacob Cowing SF WR3 |
1.2 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 6 |
5 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus ATL WR3 |
0.7 | 2.7 | 1 | 6 |
5 |
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Injury report
The official Week 7 report for each side, as captured Sun, Oct 25, 7:53 AM ET. Teams file game statuses on the last practice day; anyone not listed is expected to play. Final inactives come 90 minutes before kickoff.
SF
Game status
6 out · 3 questionable
- Out
Deebo Samuel Sr.WR
Hamstring
- Out
Mike EvansWR
Ribs / Achilles
- Out
Nick BosaDE
Knee / Calf
- Out
Garret WallowLB
Hamstring
- Out
Luke GiffordLB
Groin
- Out
Marques SigleS
Ankle
- Questionable
Christian KirkWR
Calf
- Questionable
Upton StoutCB
Shoulder
- Questionable
Siran NealS
Knee
ATL
Game status
6 out · 8 questionable
- Out
Brian RobinsonRB
Hamstring
- Out
Beaux CollinsWR
Hip
- Out
Cameron WilliamsT
Ankle
- Out
Michael JerrellT
Biceps
- Out
Divine DeabloLB
Forearm
- Out
Billy Bowman Jr.CB
Hamstring
- Questionable
Olamide ZaccheausWR
Shoulder
- Questionable
Samson EbukamDE
Hamstring
- Questionable
Za'Darius SmithDE
Neck
- Questionable
Gervon Dexter Sr.DT
Hamstring
- Questionable
Kendal DanielsLB
Neck
- Questionable
A.J. TerrellCB
Groin
- Questionable
Avieon TerrellCB
Back
- Questionable
C.J. HendersonCB
Groin
Leo ratings — head to head
Each rating is 0–100 against the league this season, built from efficiency rather than record: 50 is average, every 15 points is one standard deviation. These describe the teams — they are not used to price the game.
SF
This season
ATL
75
QuarterbackEPA, accuracy, giveaways
34
70
Offenseefficiency, explosives, ball security
47
47
DefenseEPA allowed, pressure, takeaways
52
58
Overall
50
QB 63 · OFF 56 · DEF 35
Last season
QB 47 · OFF 49 · DEF 57
The turnover battle
Interceptions thrown against interceptions caught, and the same for fumbles. Bold is the better side of each line.
| SF |
Per game, this season |
ATL |
| 0.33 | Interceptions thrown | 1.17 |
|---|
| 0.50 | Interceptions caught | 0.17 |
|---|
| 0.33 | Fumbles lost | 0.50 |
|---|
| 1.33 | Fumbles forced | 0.83 |
|---|
| 1.83 | Takeaways | 1.00 |
|---|
| 0.67 | Giveaways | 1.67 |
|---|
| +1.17 | Net turnover margin | -0.67 |
|---|
Efficiency detail
The inputs behind the ratings above, shown raw so you can check the work.
| SF |
Offense |
ATL |
| +0.269 | EPA per dropback | -0.077 |
|---|
| +5.0 | Completion % over expected | -4.9 |
|---|
| 1.9% | Interception rate | 3.1% |
|---|
| 3.5% | Sack rate taken | 7.1% |
|---|
| +0.027 | Rush EPA per carry | -0.003 |
|---|
| 6.0% | Explosive play rate | 6.5% |
|---|
| SF |
Defense |
ATL |
| +0.001 | EPA allowed per play | -0.011 |
|---|
| 5.27 | Yards allowed per play | 5.42 |
|---|
| 3.2% | Sack rate | 4.4% |
|---|
| 0.7% | Interception rate forced | 0.8% |
|---|
Team comparison
Season totals on both sides of the ball. Left column is SF, right is ATL.
| SF |
This season |
ATL |
| 6 | Games | 6 |
|---|
| 243.3 | Pass yards/g | 211 |
|---|
| 128.2 | Rush yards/g | 149.5 |
|---|
| 14 | Passing TD | 7 |
|---|
| 2 | Interceptions thrown | 7 |
|---|
| 225.7 | Pass yards allowed/g | 268.7 |
|---|
| 90.2 | Rush yards allowed/g | 83.2 |
|---|
| 3 | Interceptions forced | 1 |
|---|
| SF |
Last season |
ATL |
| 250.2 | Pass yards/g | 217.8 |
|---|
| 105.3 | Rush yards/g | 125.8 |
|---|
| 36 | Passing TD | 19 |
|---|
| 19 | Interceptions thrown | 8 |
|---|
| 231.7 | Pass yards allowed/g | 221.9 |
|---|
| 113.1 | Rush yards allowed/g | 126.2 |
|---|
This season
Starting quarterback, lead backs and top receivers, by actual usage this season — games before this one only.
SF
2026
Quarterback
Leo QB75
| Player | G | C/ATT | Comp% | Yards | Y/G | TD/INT | Y/A |
|---|
| Brock Purdy | 6 | 119/171 |
69.6% | 1460 | 243.3 |
14 / 2 | 8.5 |
Running back
| Player | G | Car | Yards | Y/C | TD |
|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 6 | 77 |
350 | 4.5 | 7 |
| Kaelon Black | 6 | 45 |
170 | 3.8 | 0 |
Receivers
| Player | G | Rec/Tgt | Catch% | Yards | Y/G | TD |
|---|
| Mike Evans WR1 | 6 |
27/39 | 69.2% | 420 |
70 | 3 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. WR2 | 5 |
16/20 | 80% | 206 |
41.2 | 3 |
| George Kittle TE | 6 |
26/36 | 72.2% | 337 |
56.2 | 5 |
ATL
2026
Quarterback
Leo QB34
| Player | G | C/ATT | Comp% | Yards | Y/G | TD/INT | Y/A |
|---|
| Michael Penix Jr. | 4 | 71/110 |
64.5% | 944 | 236 |
6 / 1 | 8.6 |
Running back
| Player | G | Car | Yards | Y/C | TD |
|---|
| Bijan Robinson | 6 | 111 |
641 | 5.8 | 4 |
| Brian Robinson | 6 | 53 |
211 | 4 | 4 |
Receivers
| Player | G | Rec/Tgt | Catch% | Yards | Y/G | TD |
|---|
| Drake London WR1 | 6 |
31/46 | 67.4% | 550 |
91.7 | 0 |
| Jahan Dotson WR2 | 6 |
11/22 | 50% | 236 |
39.3 | 2 |
| Kyle Pitts TE | 6 |
15/22 | 68.2% | 169 |
28.2 | 3 |
Last season
The same players' full prior season, for a baseline the early-season sample cannot give you.
SF
2025
Quarterback
Leo QB63
| Player | G | C/ATT | Comp% | Yards | Y/G | TD/INT | Y/A |
|---|
| Brock Purdy | 11 | 230/342 |
67.3% | 2569 | 233.5 |
22 / 13 | 7.5 |
Running back
| Player | G | Car | Yards | Y/C | TD |
|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 19 | 337 |
1285 | 3.8 | 10 |
| Brian Robinson | 19 | 95 |
404 | 4.3 | 2 |
Receivers
| Player | G | Rec/Tgt | Catch% | Yards | Y/G | TD |
|---|
| Jauan Jennings WR1 | 17 |
58/98 | 59.2% | 711 |
41.8 | 9 |
| Ricky Pearsall WR2 | 10 |
36/55 | 65.5% | 528 |
52.8 | 0 |
| George Kittle TE | 12 |
58/71 | 81.7% | 634 |
52.8 | 7 |
ATL
2025
Quarterback
Leo QB47
| Player | G | C/ATT | Comp% | Yards | Y/G | TD/INT | Y/A |
|---|
| Michael Penix Jr. | 9 | 166/276 |
60.1% | 1982 | 220.2 |
9 / 3 | 7.2 |
Running back
| Player | G | Car | Yards | Y/C | TD |
|---|
| Bijan Robinson | 17 | 287 |
1478 | 5.1 | 7 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 17 | 143 |
514 | 3.6 | 8 |
Receivers
| Player | G | Rec/Tgt | Catch% | Yards | Y/G | TD |
|---|
| Drake London WR1 | 12 |
68/112 | 60.7% | 919 |
76.6 | 7 |
| Darnell Mooney WR2 | 15 |
32/72 | 44.4% | 443 |
29.5 | 1 |
| Kyle Pitts TE | 17 |
88/118 | 74.6% | 928 |
54.6 | 5 |
Touchdown props
Leo’s chance that each player scores a rushing or receiving touchdown in this game, the three most likely on each side, from its last read before kickoff.
Most likely to score: Christian McCaffrey (SF, 64%) and Bijan Robinson (ATL, 58%). In 2023 to 2025, Leo’s top pick in a game scored 47% of the time, and at least one of its top two scored 69% of the time.
SF
Leo’s chance
- Christian McCaffrey
RB1
64%
- George Kittle
TE1
36%
- Brandin Cooks
WR1
25%
ATL
Leo’s chance
- Bijan Robinson
RB1
58%
- Drake London
WR1
33%
- Kyle Pitts
TE1
24%
Player and team statistics from the open nflverse dataset. Roles assigned by actual usage — most attempts, carries and targets — not depth chart.