Week 8 · Monday 20:15
CHI
at
SEA
Lumen Field · outdoors · fieldturf
CHI moneyline+145
SEA moneyline-175
SpreadSEA -3
Total46.5
Chicago Bears at Seattle Seahawks
Every game this week on Leo’s Week 8 card →
Chicago Bears at Seattle Seahawks on Monday night, November 2 at Lumen Field. Starting quarterbacks: Caleb Williams for the Bears and Sam Darnold for the Seahawks.
This is a pre-game analysis page. Every stat above the Final result comes from games played before this one (through Week 7), and Leo’s numbers were frozen before kickoff. Market numbers are the closing line. Nothing here is a wager. Calls are a public test, graded after every game.
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Leo ratings, head to head
Each rating is 0 to 100 against the league this season, built from efficiency rather than record: 50 is average, every 15 points is one standard deviation. They describe the teams; the “Why Leo has” section above says which of them push Leo’s number.
CHI
This season
SEA
55
QuarterbackEPA, accuracy, giveaways
54
56
Offenseefficiency, explosives, ball security
49
50
DefenseEPA allowed, pressure, takeaways
75
53
Overall
62
QB 53 · OFF 63 · DEF 48
Last season
QB 62 · OFF 58 · DEF 69
The turnover battle
Interceptions thrown against interceptions caught, and the same for fumbles. Bold is the better side of each line.
| CHI |
Per game, this season |
SEA |
| 0.71 | Interceptions thrown | 1.14 |
|---|
| 0.57 | Interceptions caught | 1.14 |
|---|
| 0.86 | Fumbles lost | 0.71 |
|---|
| 0.86 | Fumbles forced | 0.43 |
|---|
| 1.43 | Takeaways | 1.57 |
|---|
| 1.57 | Giveaways | 1.86 |
|---|
| -0.14 | Net turnover margin | -0.29 |
|---|
Efficiency detail
The inputs behind the ratings above, shown raw so you can check the work.
| CHI |
Offense |
SEA |
| +0.124 | EPA per dropback | +0.091 |
|---|
| +1.9 | Completion % over expected | +2.8 |
|---|
| 2.0% | Interception rate | 3.2% |
|---|
| 5.7% | Sack rate taken | 6.2% |
|---|
| -0.032 | Rush EPA per carry | -0.133 |
|---|
| 6.5% | Explosive play rate | 6.1% |
|---|
| CHI |
Defense |
SEA |
| +0.018 | EPA allowed per play | -0.127 |
|---|
| 6.39 | Yards allowed per play | 4.52 |
|---|
| 4.7% | Sack rate | 4.3% |
|---|
| 1.4% | Interception rate forced | 1.9% |
|---|
Team comparison
Season totals on both sides of the ball. Left column is CHI, right is SEA.
| CHI |
This season |
SEA |
| 7 | Games | 7 |
|---|
| 254.9 | Pass yards/g | 246.6 |
|---|
| 154.3 | Rush yards/g | 113.7 |
|---|
| 7 | Passing TD | 12 |
|---|
| 5 | Interceptions thrown | 8 |
|---|
| 241.3 | Pass yards allowed/g | 158 |
|---|
| 87.6 | Rush yards allowed/g | 89.4 |
|---|
| 4 | Interceptions forced | 8 |
|---|
| CHI |
Last season |
SEA |
| 242.6 | Pass yards/g | 236.8 |
|---|
| 142.6 | Rush yards/g | 124.4 |
|---|
| 32 | Passing TD | 30 |
|---|
| 12 | Interceptions thrown | 15 |
|---|
| 244.6 | Pass yards allowed/g | 221.6 |
|---|
| 131.4 | Rush yards allowed/g | 93.2 |
|---|
This season
Starting quarterback, lead backs and top receivers, by actual usage this season, from games before this one only.
CHI
2026
Quarterback
Leo QB55
| Player | G | C/ATT | Comp% | Yards | Y/G | TD/INT | Y/A |
|---|
| Caleb Williams | 4 | 88/124 |
71% | 1020 | 255 |
5 / 1 | 8.2 |
Running back
| Player | G | Car | Yards | Y/C | TD |
|---|
| D'Andre Swift | 7 | 116 |
476 | 4.1 | 7 |
| Kyle Monangai | 4 | 60 |
324 | 5.4 | 3 |
Receivers
| Player | G | Rec/Tgt | Catch% | Yards | Y/G | TD |
|---|
| Luther Burden III WR1 | 7 |
35/47 | 74.5% | 491 |
70.1 | 2 |
| Rome Odunze WR2 | 7 |
24/38 | 63.2% | 381 |
54.4 | 0 |
| Colston Loveland TE | 7 |
26/42 | 61.9% | 244 |
34.9 | 2 |
SEA
2026
Quarterback
Leo QB54
| Player | G | C/ATT | Comp% | Yards | Y/G | TD/INT | Y/A |
|---|
| Sam Darnold | 6 | 110/177 |
62.1% | 1290 | 215 |
8 / 8 | 7.3 |
Running back
| Player | G | Car | Yards | Y/C | TD |
|---|
| Emanuel Wilson | 7 | 111 |
403 | 3.6 | 3 |
| George Holani | 7 | 36 |
108 | 3 | 1 |
Receivers
| Player | G | Rec/Tgt | Catch% | Yards | Y/G | TD |
|---|
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR1 | 7 |
58/78 | 74.4% | 867 |
123.9 | 8 |
| Rashid Shaheed WR2 | 7 |
16/30 | 53.3% | 163 |
23.3 | 0 |
| AJ Barner TE | 7 |
19/29 | 65.5% | 180 |
25.7 | 0 |
Last season
The same players' full prior season, for a baseline the early-season sample cannot give you.
CHI
2025
Quarterback
Leo QB53
| Player | G | C/ATT | Comp% | Yards | Y/G | TD/INT | Y/A |
|---|
| Caleb Williams | 19 | 377/658 |
57.3% | 4560 | 240 |
31 / 12 | 6.9 |
Running back
| Player | G | Car | Yards | Y/C | TD |
|---|
| D'Andre Swift | 18 | 255 |
1217 | 4.8 | 10 |
| Kyle Monangai | 19 | 190 |
846 | 4.5 | 5 |
Receivers
| Player | G | Rec/Tgt | Catch% | Yards | Y/G | TD |
|---|
| Rome Odunze WR1 | 14 |
48/102 | 47.1% | 749 |
53.5 | 6 |
| DJ Moore WR2 | 19 |
61/100 | 61% | 798 |
42 | 8 |
| Colston Loveland TE | 18 |
70/107 | 65.4% | 906 |
50.3 | 6 |
SEA
2025
Quarterback
Leo QB62
| Player | G | C/ATT | Comp% | Yards | Y/G | TD/INT | Y/A |
|---|
| Sam Darnold | 20 | 379/568 |
66.7% | 4720 | 236 |
30 / 14 | 8.3 |
Running back
| Player | G | Car | Yards | Y/C | TD |
|---|
| Kenneth Walker III | 20 | 286 |
1340 | 4.7 | 9 |
| Zach Charbonnet | 17 | 189 |
750 | 4 | 12 |
Receivers
| Player | G | Rec/Tgt | Catch% | Yards | Y/G | TD |
|---|
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR1 | 20 |
136/189 | 72% | 1992 |
99.6 | 12 |
| Cooper Kupp WR2 | 19 |
62/93 | 66.7% | 750 |
39.5 | 3 |
| AJ Barner TE | 20 |
58/75 | 77.3% | 586 |
29.3 | 7 |
Touchdown leaders
Top three scrimmage touchdown scorers on each side this season, rushing and receiving.
CHI
2026
- D'Andre Swift
RB
7
7 rush · 0 rec
- Kyle Monangai
RB
3
3 rush · 0 rec
- Caleb Williams
QB
2
2 rush · 0 rec
SEA
2026
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba
WR
8
0 rush · 8 rec
- Emanuel Wilson
RB
4
3 rush · 1 rec
- Eric Saubert
TE
1
0 rush · 1 rec
Player and team statistics from the open nflverse dataset. Roles assigned by actual usage (most attempts, carries and targets), not depth chart.