Week 10 · Sunday 16:05

SEASEA at LVLV

Allegiant Stadium · dome · grass

SEA moneyline-175
LV moneyline+145
SpreadSEA -3
Total43.5

Seattle Seahawks at Las Vegas Raiders

Every game this week on Leo’s Week 10 card →

Leo gives the Seattle Seahawks a 56% chance to beat the Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday afternoon, November 15, at Allegiant Stadium, in Week 10. Neither team is above 60%, so the moneyline is a PASS. Leo projects 45.8 total points (posted total 43.5) and expects the Seahawks by 8.3 (posted spread Seahawks −3). Leo's calls: moneyline PASS, spread SEA -3 and total Over 43.5. Starting quarterbacks: Sam Darnold for the Seahawks and Kirk Cousins for the Raiders.

This is a pre-game analysis page. Every stat above the Final result comes from games played before this one (through Week 9), and Leo’s numbers are an early read that updates until kickoff, when the last read is frozen. Market numbers are the latest posted line. Nothing here is a wager. Calls are a public test, graded after every game.

Leo’s read

Early read (Nov 9, 5:45 PM ET). Leo updates it every morning and again on game day; the last read before kickoff is frozen and graded. Player props are added on game day. Each player projection is rate × volume × opponent adjustment, and the columns show every input. None of this is a wager.

MoneylinePASSSEA 56%, under 60%
SpreadSEA -3Leo SEA by 8.3
TotalOver 43.5Leo 45.8

A call is graded after the game. PASS means no call: a moneyline needs more than 60% and a price better than -230; a spread needs Leo 1 point off the line and his two models agreeing on the winner; a total needs Leo 1.5 to 7 points off the line.

Leo win chanceSEA 56%chance to win; the moneyline call is in the box above
Leo total45.8points, both teams
Leo marginSEA by 8.3expected winning margin

Why Leo has the Seahawks at 56%

What moved Leo's win chance away from a coin flip for this game, from Leo's early read, which updates until kickoff.

Leo knows team results, quarterback play and the injury report as of its last read (Nov 9, 5:45 PM ET). It does not know game plans, weather changes or news after that read.

Get Leo’s NFL card by email

Every game, Leo’s winner and total, and the most likely touchdown scorers, before kickoff. Free. Unsubscribe anytime.

Leo ratings, head to head

Each rating is 0 to 100 against the league this season, built from efficiency rather than record: 50 is average, every 15 points is one standard deviation. They describe the teams; the “Why Leo has” section above says which of them push Leo’s number.

SEA This season LV
52 QuarterbackEPA, accuracy, giveaways 52
48 Offenseefficiency, explosives, ball security 41
70 DefenseEPA allowed, pressure, takeaways 38
59 Overall 40
QB 62 · OFF 58 · DEF 69 Last season QB 31 · OFF 21 · DEF 47

The turnover battle

Interceptions thrown against interceptions caught, and the same for fumbles. Bold is the better side of each line.

SEA Per game, this season LV
1.00Interceptions thrown0.89
0.89Interceptions caught0.78
0.56Fumbles lost0.33
0.67Fumbles forced1.33
1.56Takeaways2.11
1.56Giveaways1.22
0Net turnover margin+0.89

Efficiency detail

The inputs behind the ratings above, shown raw so you can check the work.

SEA Offense LV
+0.075EPA per dropback+0.065
+0.8Completion % over expected+0.1
3.0%Interception rate2.8%
6.0%Sack rate taken5.7%
-0.125Rush EPA per carry-0.254
5.4%Explosive play rate5.5%
SEA Defense LV
-0.101EPA allowed per play+0.070
4.58Yards allowed per play5.99
4.1%Sack rate3.3%
1.6%Interception rate forced1.1%

Team comparison

Season totals on both sides of the ball. Left column is SEA, right is LV.

SEA This season LV
9Games9
232.1Pass yards/g266.8
110.8Rush yards/g71.3
15Passing TD20
9Interceptions thrown8
168.8Pass yards allowed/g248.7
89.1Rush yards allowed/g151.2
8Interceptions forced7
SEA Last season LV
236.8Pass yards/g195
124.4Rush yards/g77.5
30Passing TD20
15Interceptions thrown19
221.6Pass yards allowed/g214.4
93.2Rush yards allowed/g116.8

This season

Starting quarterback, lead backs and top receivers, by actual usage this season, from games before this one only.

SEA 2026

Quarterback Leo QB52

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Sam Darnold7127/211 60.2%1478211.1 10 / 97

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Emanuel Wilson7111 4033.63
Jadarian Price547 1723.70

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR19 71/9971.7%1036 115.19
Cooper Kupp WR29 22/3464.7%238 26.42
AJ Barner TE9 23/3860.5%210 23.31
LV 2026

Quarterback Leo QB52

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Kirk Cousins9202/315 64.1%2340260 20 / 87.4

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Ashton Jeanty9114 3623.21
Mike Washington Jr.971 2753.91

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Tre Tucker WR19 33/5658.9%529 58.84
Jalen Nailor WR27 14/2850%122 17.41
Brock Bowers TE7 48/6969.6%658 946

Last season

The same players' full prior season, for a baseline the early-season sample cannot give you.

SEA 2025

Quarterback Leo QB62

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Sam Darnold20379/568 66.7%4720236 30 / 148.3

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Kenneth Walker III20286 13404.79
Zach Charbonnet17189 750412

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR120 136/18972%1992 99.612
Cooper Kupp WR219 62/9366.7%750 39.53
AJ Barner TE20 58/7577.3%586 29.37
LV 2025

Quarterback Leo QB31

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Geno Smith15302/448 67.4%3025201.7 19 / 176.8

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Ashton Jeanty17266 9753.75
Raheem Mostert1222 1044.70

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Tre Tucker WR117 57/9262%696 40.95
Jakobi Meyers WR27 33/4967.3%352 50.30
Brock Bowers TE12 64/8674.4%680 56.77

Touchdown leaders

Top three scrimmage touchdown scorers on each side this season, rushing and receiving.

SEA 2026
  1. Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR 9 0 rush · 9 rec
  2. Emanuel Wilson RB 4 3 rush · 1 rec
  3. AJ Barner TE 3 2 rush · 1 rec
LV 2026
  1. Brock Bowers TE 6 0 rush · 6 rec
  2. Tre Tucker WR 4 0 rush · 4 rec
  3. Ashton Jeanty RB 4 1 rush · 3 rec

Player and team statistics from the open nflverse dataset. Roles assigned by actual usage (most attempts, carries and targets), not depth chart.

Keep reading

All Week 10 NFL predictions →Every game that week: Leo’s win chance, spread, total and touchdown scorer chances

Every NFL game · NFL team predictions · Leo’s NFL record · Injury tracker · Free NFL card by email

More Seattle Seahawks games

More Las Vegas Raiders games