Week 10 · Sunday 16:25

SFSF at DALDAL

AT&T Stadium · matrixturf

SF moneyline-218
DAL moneyline+180
SpreadSF -4.5
Total55.5

San Francisco 49ers at Dallas Cowboys

Every game this week on Leo’s Week 10 card →

Leo gives the San Francisco 49ers a 63% chance to beat the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday afternoon, November 15, at AT&T Stadium, in Week 10. That is above 60% at a price better than -230, so the moneyline is a call. Leo projects 54.7 total points (posted total 55.5) and expects the 49ers by 4.4 (posted spread 49ers −4.5). Leo's calls: moneyline SF -218, spread PASS and total PASS. Starting quarterbacks: Brock Purdy for the 49ers and Dak Prescott for the Cowboys.

This is a pre-game analysis page. Every stat above the Final result comes from games played before this one (through Week 9), and Leo’s numbers are an early read that updates until kickoff, when the last read is frozen. Market numbers are the latest posted line. Nothing here is a wager. Calls are a public test, graded after every game.

Leo’s read

Early read (Nov 9, 5:45 PM ET). Leo updates it every morning and again on game day; the last read before kickoff is frozen and graded. Player props are added on game day. Each player projection is rate × volume × opponent adjustment, and the columns show every input. None of this is a wager.

MoneylineSF -218Leo gives SF 63%
SpreadPASSLeo within 1 point of the line
TotalPASSLeo within 1.5 points of the line

A call is graded after the game. PASS means no call: a moneyline needs more than 60% and a price better than -230; a spread needs Leo 1 point off the line and his two models agreeing on the winner; a total needs Leo 1.5 to 7 points off the line.

Leo win chanceSF 63%chance to win; the moneyline call is in the box above
Leo total54.7points, both teams
Leo marginSF by 4.4expected winning margin

Why Leo has the 49ers at 63%

What moved Leo's win chance away from a coin flip for this game, from Leo's early read, which updates until kickoff.

Leo knows team results, quarterback play and the injury report as of its last read (Nov 9, 5:45 PM ET). It does not know game plans, weather changes or news after that read.

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Leo ratings, head to head

Each rating is 0 to 100 against the league this season, built from efficiency rather than record: 50 is average, every 15 points is one standard deviation. They describe the teams; the “Why Leo has” section above says which of them push Leo’s number.

SF This season DAL
71 QuarterbackEPA, accuracy, giveaways 62
69 Offenseefficiency, explosives, ball security 62
48 DefenseEPA allowed, pressure, takeaways 29
59 Overall 46
QB 63 · OFF 56 · DEF 35 Last season QB 63 · OFF 60 · DEF 27

The turnover battle

Interceptions thrown against interceptions caught, and the same for fumbles. Bold is the better side of each line.

SF Per game, this season DAL
0.63Interceptions thrown0.56
0.75Interceptions caught0.44
0.50Fumbles lost0.33
1.25Fumbles forced0.89
2.00Takeaways1.33
1.13Giveaways0.89
+0.88Net turnover margin+0.44

Efficiency detail

The inputs behind the ratings above, shown raw so you can check the work.

SF Offense DAL
+0.243EPA per dropback+0.180
+4.8Completion % over expected+0.8
2.4%Interception rate1.6%
3.7%Sack rate taken4.2%
+0.044Rush EPA per carry-0.004
6.0%Explosive play rate5.6%
SF Defense DAL
-0.002EPA allowed per play+0.117
5.21Yards allowed per play6.1
2.7%Sack rate3.0%
1.0%Interception rate forced0.7%

Team comparison

Season totals on both sides of the ball. Left column is SF, right is DAL.

SF This season DAL
8Games9
247.5Pass yards/g264.6
135.3Rush yards/g103.6
17Passing TD16
5Interceptions thrown5
222.9Pass yards allowed/g237
80.9Rush yards allowed/g147.4
6Interceptions forced4
SF Last season DAL
250.2Pass yards/g278.5
105.3Rush yards/g125.6
36Passing TD31
19Interceptions thrown12
231.7Pass yards allowed/g265.9
113.1Rush yards allowed/g125.5

This season

Starting quarterback, lead backs and top receivers, by actual usage this season, from games before this one only.

SF 2026

Quarterback Leo QB71

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Brock Purdy8163/236 69.1%1980247.5 17 / 58.4

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Christian McCaffrey8102 4574.59
Kaelon Black868 3034.51

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Mike Evans WR16 27/3969.2%420 703
Deebo Samuel Sr. WR25 16/2080%206 41.23
George Kittle TE8 38/5371.7%483 60.45
DAL 2026

Quarterback Leo QB62

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Dak Prescott9218/336 64.9%2381264.6 16 / 57.1

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Javonte Williams9154 6294.19
Tyler Goodson640 1634.10

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
CeeDee Lamb WR19 70/10864.8%904 100.47
George Pickens WR28 39/6262.9%533 66.62
Jake Ferguson TE8 19/2770.4%136 174

Last season

The same players' full prior season, for a baseline the early-season sample cannot give you.

SF 2025

Quarterback Leo QB63

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Brock Purdy11230/342 67.3%2569233.5 22 / 137.5

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Christian McCaffrey19337 12853.810
Brian Robinson1995 4044.32

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Jauan Jennings WR117 58/9859.2%711 41.89
Ricky Pearsall WR210 36/5565.5%528 52.80
George Kittle TE12 58/7181.7%634 52.87
DAL 2025

Quarterback Leo QB63

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Dak Prescott17404/600 67.3%4552267.8 30 / 107.6

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Javonte Williams16252 12014.811
Malik Davis1052 2504.82

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
George Pickens WR117 93/13767.9%1429 84.19
CeeDee Lamb WR213 75/11764.1%1077 82.83
Jake Ferguson TE17 82/10280.4%600 35.38

Touchdown leaders

Top three scrimmage touchdown scorers on each side this season, rushing and receiving.

SF 2026
  1. Christian McCaffrey RB 10 9 rush · 1 rec
  2. George Kittle TE 5 0 rush · 5 rec
  3. Mike Evans WR 3 0 rush · 3 rec
DAL 2026
  1. Javonte Williams RB 10 9 rush · 1 rec
  2. CeeDee Lamb WR 7 0 rush · 7 rec
  3. Jake Ferguson TE 4 0 rush · 4 rec

Player and team statistics from the open nflverse dataset. Roles assigned by actual usage (most attempts, carries and targets), not depth chart.

Keep reading

All Week 10 NFL predictions →Every game that week: Leo’s win chance, spread, total and touchdown scorer chances

Every NFL game · NFL team predictions · Leo’s NFL record · Injury tracker · Free NFL card by email

More San Francisco 49ers games

More Dallas Cowboys games