Week 7 · Sunday 20:20
KC
at
SEA
Lumen Field · outdoors · fieldturf
KC moneyline+124
SEA moneyline-148
SpreadSEA -3
Total42.5
Kansas City Chiefs at Seattle Seahawks
Every game this week on Leo’s Week 7 card →
This is a pre-game analysis page. Every stat above the Final result comes from games played before this one (through Week 6), and Leo’s numbers were frozen before kickoff. Market numbers are the closing line. Nothing here is a wager — the pick gate stays closed until Leo shows it can beat that line.
Leo’s read
What the model expected, frozen before kickoff (Oct 25, 7:52 AM ET). Each player projection is rate × volume × opponent adjustment — the columns show every input. None of this is a wager.
Leo win chanceKC 62%chance to win; information, not a pick
Leo total43.8points, both teams
Leo marginSEA by 1.7expected winning margin
Passing yards
| Player | yds/att | att | opp adj | games | Leo |
|---|
| Patrick Mahomes KC QB1 |
7.9 | 32.8 | 0.9 | 5 |
214 |
| Sam Darnold SEA QB1 |
7.3 | 29.6 | 1 | 5 |
214 |
Rushing yards
| Player | yds/carry | car | opp adj | games | Leo |
|---|
| Kenneth Walker III KC RB1 |
5 | 19.1 | 1 | 5 |
93 |
| Emanuel Wilson SEA RB1 |
4 | 13.7 | 0.9 | 6 |
50 |
| George Holani SEA RB2 |
3.9 | 4.8 | 0.9 | 6 |
18 |
| Emmett Johnson KC RB2 |
4.2 | 3.7 | 1 | 5 |
16 |
Receiving yards
| Player | yds/tgt | tgt | opp adj | games | Leo |
|---|
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA WR1 |
11.3 | 10.5 | 1 | 6 |
125 |
| Xavier Worthy KC WR1 |
8.5 | 5.6 | 0.9 | 5 |
44 |
| Rashid Shaheed SEA WR2 |
6.3 | 4.5 | 1 | 6 |
33 |
| Cooper Kupp SEA WR3 |
6.5 | 4.3 | 1 | 6 |
32 |
| Andrew Armstrong KC WR2 |
6.5 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 1 |
15 |
| Jalen Royals KC WR3 |
3.9 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 5 |
9 |
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Injury report
The official Week 7 report for each side, as captured Sun, Oct 25, 7:53 AM ET. Teams file game statuses on the last practice day; anyone not listed is expected to play. Final inactives come 90 minutes before kickoff.
KC
Game status
3 out · 2 questionable
- Out
Brashard SmithRB
Hamstring
- Out
Rashee RiceWR
Hamstring / Knee
- Out
Jaylon MooreT
Concussion
- Questionable
Cooper McDonaldLB
Knee
- Questionable
L'Jarius SneedCB
Knee
SEA
Game status
3 out · 5 questionable
- Out
Zach CharbonnetRB
Knee
- Out
Chazz SurrattLB
Calf
- Out
Drake ThomasLB
Ankle
- Questionable
Drew LockQB
Elbow
- Questionable
Connor O'TooleLB
Hamstring
- Questionable
DeMarcus LawrenceLB
Knee
- Questionable
Uchenna NwosuLB
Hip
- Questionable
Nick EmmanworiS
Hip
Leo ratings — head to head
Each rating is 0–100 against the league this season, built from efficiency rather than record: 50 is average, every 15 points is one standard deviation. These describe the teams — they are not used to price the game.
KC
This season
SEA
57
QuarterbackEPA, accuracy, giveaways
53
64
Offenseefficiency, explosives, ball security
46
57
DefenseEPA allowed, pressure, takeaways
75
61
Overall
60
QB 48 · OFF 54 · DEF 51
Last season
QB 62 · OFF 58 · DEF 69
The turnover battle
Interceptions thrown against interceptions caught, and the same for fumbles. Bold is the better side of each line.
| KC |
Per game, this season |
SEA |
| 0.60 | Interceptions thrown | 1.17 |
|---|
| 1.00 | Interceptions caught | 1.17 |
|---|
| 0.00 | Fumbles lost | 0.83 |
|---|
| 0.80 | Fumbles forced | 0.33 |
|---|
| 1.80 | Takeaways | 1.50 |
|---|
| 0.60 | Giveaways | 2.00 |
|---|
| +1.2 | Net turnover margin | -0.5 |
|---|
Efficiency detail
The inputs behind the ratings above, shown raw so you can check the work.
| KC |
Offense |
SEA |
| +0.114 | EPA per dropback | +0.065 |
|---|
| +0.9 | Completion % over expected | +2.8 |
|---|
| 2.0% | Interception rate | 3.2% |
|---|
| 5.3% | Sack rate taken | 6.7% |
|---|
| +0.064 | Rush EPA per carry | -0.150 |
|---|
| 6.4% | Explosive play rate | 5.9% |
|---|
| KC |
Defense |
SEA |
| -0.063 | EPA allowed per play | -0.129 |
|---|
| 5.1 | Yards allowed per play | 4.54 |
|---|
| 2.7% | Sack rate | 4.5% |
|---|
| 1.3% | Interception rate forced | 1.8% |
|---|
Team comparison
Season totals on both sides of the ball. Left column is KC, right is SEA.
| KC |
This season |
SEA |
| 5 | Games | 6 |
|---|
| 261.8 | Pass yards/g | 244.8 |
|---|
| 159.8 | Rush yards/g | 107.2 |
|---|
| 9 | Passing TD | 11 |
|---|
| 3 | Interceptions thrown | 7 |
|---|
| 224 | Pass yards allowed/g | 156.8 |
|---|
| 88.8 | Rush yards allowed/g | 96 |
|---|
| 5 | Interceptions forced | 7 |
|---|
| KC |
Last season |
SEA |
| 232.2 | Pass yards/g | 236.8 |
|---|
| 106.6 | Rush yards/g | 124.4 |
|---|
| 23 | Passing TD | 30 |
|---|
| 12 | Interceptions thrown | 15 |
|---|
| 205.1 | Pass yards allowed/g | 221.6 |
|---|
| 105.7 | Rush yards allowed/g | 93.2 |
|---|
This season
Starting quarterback, lead backs and top receivers, by actual usage this season — games before this one only.
KC
2026
Quarterback
Leo QB57
| Player | G | C/ATT | Comp% | Yards | Y/G | TD/INT | Y/A |
|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 5 | 105/158 |
66.5% | 1309 | 261.8 |
9 / 3 | 8.3 |
Running back
| Player | G | Car | Yards | Y/C | TD |
|---|
| Kenneth Walker III | 5 | 106 |
665 | 6.3 | 6 |
| Emmett Johnson | 5 | 19 |
62 | 3.3 | 0 |
Receivers
| Player | G | Rec/Tgt | Catch% | Yards | Y/G | TD |
|---|
| Xavier Worthy WR1 | 5 |
21/29 | 72.4% | 206 |
41.2 | 1 |
| Rashee Rice WR2 | 3 |
13/17 | 76.5% | 190 |
63.3 | 1 |
| Travis Kelce TE | 5 |
20/27 | 74.1% | 299 |
59.8 | 2 |
SEA
2026
Quarterback
Leo QB53
| Player | G | C/ATT | Comp% | Yards | Y/G | TD/INT | Y/A |
|---|
| Sam Darnold | 5 | 90/149 |
60.4% | 1033 | 206.6 |
7 / 7 | 6.9 |
Running back
| Player | G | Car | Yards | Y/C | TD |
|---|
| Emanuel Wilson | 6 | 87 |
303 | 3.5 | 2 |
| George Holani | 6 | 31 |
97 | 3.1 | 1 |
Receivers
| Player | G | Rec/Tgt | Catch% | Yards | Y/G | TD |
|---|
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR1 | 6 |
49/66 | 74.2% | 717 |
119.5 | 7 |
| Rashid Shaheed WR2 | 6 |
14/27 | 51.9% | 162 |
27 | 0 |
| AJ Barner TE | 6 |
15/24 | 62.5% | 138 |
23 | 0 |
Last season
The same players' full prior season, for a baseline the early-season sample cannot give you.
KC
2025
Quarterback
Leo QB48
| Player | G | C/ATT | Comp% | Yards | Y/G | TD/INT | Y/A |
|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 14 | 315/502 |
62.7% | 3587 | 256.2 |
22 / 11 | 7.1 |
Running back
| Player | G | Car | Yards | Y/C | TD |
|---|
| Kareem Hunt | 17 | 163 |
611 | 3.7 | 8 |
| Isiah Pacheco | 13 | 118 |
462 | 3.9 | 1 |
Receivers
| Player | G | Rec/Tgt | Catch% | Yards | Y/G | TD |
|---|
| Rashee Rice WR1 | 8 |
53/78 | 67.9% | 571 |
71.4 | 5 |
| Marquise Brown WR2 | 16 |
49/74 | 66.2% | 587 |
36.7 | 5 |
| Travis Kelce TE | 17 |
76/108 | 70.4% | 851 |
50.1 | 5 |
SEA
2025
Quarterback
Leo QB62
| Player | G | C/ATT | Comp% | Yards | Y/G | TD/INT | Y/A |
|---|
| Sam Darnold | 20 | 379/568 |
66.7% | 4720 | 236 |
30 / 14 | 8.3 |
Running back
| Player | G | Car | Yards | Y/C | TD |
|---|
| Kenneth Walker III | 20 | 286 |
1340 | 4.7 | 9 |
| Zach Charbonnet | 17 | 189 |
750 | 4 | 12 |
Receivers
| Player | G | Rec/Tgt | Catch% | Yards | Y/G | TD |
|---|
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR1 | 20 |
136/189 | 72% | 1992 |
99.6 | 12 |
| Cooper Kupp WR2 | 19 |
62/93 | 66.7% | 750 |
39.5 | 3 |
| AJ Barner TE | 20 |
58/75 | 77.3% | 586 |
29.3 | 7 |
Touchdown props
Leo’s chance that each player scores a rushing or receiving touchdown in this game, the three most likely on each side, from its last read before kickoff.
Most likely to score: Kenneth Walker III (KC, 60%) and Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA, 55%). In 2023 to 2025, Leo’s top pick in a game scored 47% of the time, and at least one of its top two scored 69% of the time.
KC
Leo’s chance
- Kenneth Walker III
RB1
60%
- Xavier Worthy
WR1
26%
- Travis Kelce
TE1
24%
SEA
Leo’s chance
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba
WR1
55%
- Emanuel Wilson
RB1
36%
- Rashid Shaheed
WR2
21%
Player and team statistics from the open nflverse dataset. Roles assigned by actual usage — most attempts, carries and targets — not depth chart.