Week 9 · Sunday 16:05

LV at SF

Levi's Stadium · outdoors · grass

Las Vegas Raiders at San Francisco 49ers

Every game this week on Leo’s Week 9 card →

Leo’s read

Early read (Nov 3, 2:52 PM ET). Leo updates it every morning and again on game day; the last read before kickoff is frozen and graded. Player props are added on game day. Each player projection is rate × volume × opponent adjustment, and the columns show every input. None of this is a wager.

A call is graded after the game. PASS means no call: a moneyline needs more than 60% and a price better than -230; a spread needs Leo 1 point off the line and his two models agreeing on the winner; a total needs Leo 1.5 to 7 points off the line.

Why Leo has the 49ers at 80%

What moved Leo's win chance away from a coin flip for this game, from Leo's early read, which updates until kickoff.

• Leo's win chance comes from four things: home field, the starting quarterbacks, each offense and each defense, all measured from games before this one.

Leo knows team results, quarterback play and the injury report as of its last read (Nov 3, 2:52 PM ET). It does not know game plans, weather changes or news after that read.

Leo ratings, head to head

Each rating is 0 to 100 against the league this season, built from efficiency rather than record: 50 is average, every 15 points is one standard deviation. They describe the teams; the “Why Leo has” section above says which of them push Leo’s number.

LV This season SF

53 QuarterbackEPA, accuracy, giveaways 71

43 Offenseefficiency, explosives, ball security 69

41 DefenseEPA allowed, pressure, takeaways 46

42 Overall 57

QB 31 · OFF 21 · DEF 47 Last season QB 63 · OFF 56 · DEF 35

The turnover battle

Interceptions thrown against interceptions caught, and the same for fumbles. Bold is the better side of each line.

LV	Per game, this season	SF
0.63	Interceptions thrown	0.57
0.75	Interceptions caught	0.43
0.13	Fumbles lost	0.57
1.50	Fumbles forced	1.14
2.25	Takeaways	1.57
0.75	Giveaways	1.14
+1.5	Net turnover margin	+0.43

Efficiency detail

The inputs behind the ratings above, shown raw so you can check the work.

LV	Offense	SF
+0.069	EPA per dropback	+0.240
-0.3	Completion % over expected	+4.4
2.4%	Interception rate	2.3%
6.1%	Sack rate taken	3.7%
-0.255	Rush EPA per carry	+0.034
5.3%	Explosive play rate	6.1%
LV	Defense	SF
+0.059	EPA allowed per play	+0.005
5.98	Yards allowed per play	5.22
3.5%	Sack rate	2.9%
1.0%	Interception rate forced	0.6%

Team comparison

Season totals on both sides of the ball. Left column is LV, right is SF.

LV	This season	SF
8	Games	7
273.1	Pass yards/g	249.7
77.3	Rush yards/g	127.4
19	Passing TD	15
5	Interceptions thrown	4
250.8	Pass yards allowed/g	223.9
146.4	Rush yards allowed/g	89
6	Interceptions forced	3
LV	Last season	SF
195	Pass yards/g	250.2
77.5	Rush yards/g	105.3
20	Passing TD	36
19	Interceptions thrown	19
214.4	Pass yards allowed/g	231.7
116.8	Rush yards allowed/g	113.1

This season

Starting quarterback, lead backs and top receivers, by actual usage this season, from games before this one only.

LV 2026

Quarterback Leo QB53

Player	G	C/ATT	Comp%	Yards	Y/G	TD/INT	Y/A
Kirk Cousins	8	180/283	63.6%	2124	265.5	19 / 5	7.5

Running back

Player	G	Car	Yards	Y/C	TD
Ashton Jeanty	8	108	337	3.1	1
Mike Washington Jr.	8	65	278	4.3	1

Receivers

Player	G	Rec/Tgt	Catch%	Yards	Y/G	TD
Tre Tucker WR1	8	29/48	60.4%	474	59.3	4
Jalen Nailor WR2	6	12/24	50%	113	18.8	1
Brock Bowers TE	6	41/61	67.2%	547	91.2	5

SF 2026

Quarterback Leo QB71

Player	G	C/ATT	Comp%	Yards	Y/G	TD/INT	Y/A
Brock Purdy	7	146/211	69.2%	1748	249.7	15 / 4	8.3

Running back

Player	G	Car	Yards	Y/C	TD
Christian McCaffrey	7	84	389	4.6	8
Kaelon Black	7	57	233	4.1	1

Receivers

Player	G	Rec/Tgt	Catch%	Yards	Y/G	TD
Mike Evans WR1	6	27/39	69.2%	420	70	3
Deebo Samuel Sr. WR2	5	16/20	80%	206	41.2	3
George Kittle TE	7	34/46	73.9%	425	60.7	5

Last season

The same players' full prior season, for a baseline the early-season sample cannot give you.

LV 2025

Quarterback Leo QB31

Player	G	C/ATT	Comp%	Yards	Y/G	TD/INT	Y/A
Geno Smith	15	302/448	67.4%	3025	201.7	19 / 17	6.8

Running back

Player	G	Car	Yards	Y/C	TD
Ashton Jeanty	17	266	975	3.7	5
Raheem Mostert	12	22	104	4.7	0

Receivers

Player	G	Rec/Tgt	Catch%	Yards	Y/G	TD
Tre Tucker WR1	17	57/92	62%	696	40.9	5
Jakobi Meyers WR2	7	33/49	67.3%	352	50.3	0
Brock Bowers TE	12	64/86	74.4%	680	56.7	7

SF 2025

Quarterback Leo QB63

Player	G	C/ATT	Comp%	Yards	Y/G	TD/INT	Y/A
Brock Purdy	11	230/342	67.3%	2569	233.5	22 / 13	7.5

Running back

Player	G	Car	Yards	Y/C	TD
Christian McCaffrey	19	337	1285	3.8	10
Brian Robinson	19	95	404	4.3	2

Receivers

Player	G	Rec/Tgt	Catch%	Yards	Y/G	TD
Jauan Jennings WR1	17	58/98	59.2%	711	41.8	9
Ricky Pearsall WR2	10	36/55	65.5%	528	52.8	0
George Kittle TE	12	58/71	81.7%	634	52.8	7

Touchdown leaders

Top three scrimmage touchdown scorers on each side this season, rushing and receiving.

LV 2026

1. Brock Bowers TE 5 0 rush · 5 rec
2. Tre Tucker WR 4 0 rush · 4 rec
3. Ashton Jeanty RB 4 1 rush · 3 rec

SF 2026

1. Christian McCaffrey RB 8 8 rush · 0 rec
2. George Kittle TE 5 0 rush · 5 rec
3. Mike Evans WR 3 0 rush · 3 rec

Player and team statistics from the open nflverse dataset. Roles assigned by actual usage (most attempts, carries and targets), not depth chart.