Week 9 · Sunday 16:25

ARI at SEA

Lumen Field · outdoors · fieldturf · Division game

Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks

Every game this week on Leo’s Week 9 card →

Leo’s read

Early read (Nov 3, 2:52 PM ET). Leo updates it every morning and again on game day; the last read before kickoff is frozen and graded. Player props are added on game day. Each player projection is rate × volume × opponent adjustment, and the columns show every input. None of this is a wager.

A call is graded after the game. PASS means no call: a moneyline needs more than 60% and a price better than -230; a spread needs Leo 1 point off the line and his two models agreeing on the winner; a total needs Leo 1.5 to 7 points off the line.

Why Leo has the Seahawks at 58%

What moved Leo's win chance away from a coin flip for this game, from Leo's early read, which updates until kickoff.

• Leo's win chance comes from four things: home field, the starting quarterbacks, each offense and each defense, all measured from games before this one.

Leo knows team results, quarterback play and the injury report as of its last read (Nov 3, 2:52 PM ET). It does not know game plans, weather changes or news after that read.

Leo ratings, head to head

Each rating is 0 to 100 against the league this season, built from efficiency rather than record: 50 is average, every 15 points is one standard deviation. They describe the teams; the “Why Leo has” section above says which of them push Leo’s number.

ARI This season SEA

47 QuarterbackEPA, accuracy, giveaways 51

45 Offenseefficiency, explosives, ball security 47

38 DefenseEPA allowed, pressure, takeaways 69

41 Overall 58

QB 50 · OFF 47 · DEF 39 Last season QB 62 · OFF 58 · DEF 69

The turnover battle

Interceptions thrown against interceptions caught, and the same for fumbles. Bold is the better side of each line.

ARI	Per game, this season	SEA
0.88	Interceptions thrown	1.13
0.38	Interceptions caught	1.00
0.13	Fumbles lost	0.63
1.13	Fumbles forced	0.50
1.50	Takeaways	1.50
1.00	Giveaways	1.75
+0.5	Net turnover margin	-0.25

Efficiency detail

The inputs behind the ratings above, shown raw so you can check the work.

ARI	Offense	SEA
-0.012	EPA per dropback	+0.068
+1.0	Completion % over expected	+1.1
2.0%	Interception rate	3.2%
6.6%	Sack rate taken	6.4%
-0.037	Rush EPA per carry	-0.135
4.4%	Explosive play rate	5.9%
ARI	Defense	SEA
+0.080	EPA allowed per play	-0.095
5.93	Yards allowed per play	4.6
3.4%	Sack rate	4.0%
0.7%	Interception rate forced	1.7%

Team comparison

Season totals on both sides of the ball. Left column is ARI, right is SEA.

ARI	This season	SEA
8	Games	8
239.3	Pass yards/g	239.3
109.3	Rush yards/g	109.6
13	Passing TD	14
7	Interceptions thrown	9
237.6	Pass yards allowed/g	169.1
122.1	Rush yards allowed/g	94
3	Interceptions forced	8
ARI	Last season	SEA
256.1	Pass yards/g	236.8
93.1	Rush yards/g	124.4
29	Passing TD	30
11	Interceptions thrown	15
242.8	Pass yards allowed/g	221.6
126.9	Rush yards allowed/g	93.2

This season

Starting quarterback, lead backs and top receivers, by actual usage this season, from games before this one only.

ARI 2026

Quarterback Leo QB47

Player	G	C/ATT	Comp%	Yards	Y/G	TD/INT	Y/A
Jacoby Brissett	8	193/305	63.3%	1719	214.9	10 / 7	5.6

Running back

Player	G	Car	Yards	Y/C	TD
Jeremiyah Love	6	76	268	3.5	1
Tyler Allgeier	8	72	323	4.5	2

Receivers

Player	G	Rec/Tgt	Catch%	Yards	Y/G	TD
Michael Wilson WR1	8	45/81	55.6%	486	60.8	2
Kendrick Bourne WR2	7	26/38	68.4%	263	37.6	0
Trey McBride TE	8	66/86	76.7%	544	68	5

SEA 2026

Quarterback Leo QB51

Player	G	C/ATT	Comp%	Yards	Y/G	TD/INT	Y/A
Sam Darnold	7	127/211	60.2%	1478	211.1	10 / 9	7

Running back

Player	G	Car	Yards	Y/C	TD
Emanuel Wilson	7	111	403	3.6	3
Jadarian Price	4	38	148	3.9	0

Receivers

Player	G	Rec/Tgt	Catch%	Yards	Y/G	TD
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR1	8	64/89	71.9%	985	123.1	9
Cooper Kupp WR2	8	19/30	63.3%	206	25.8	2
AJ Barner TE	8	21/34	61.8%	203	25.4	0

Last season

The same players' full prior season, for a baseline the early-season sample cannot give you.

ARI 2025

Quarterback Leo QB50

Player	G	C/ATT	Comp%	Yards	Y/G	TD/INT	Y/A
Jacoby Brissett	14	315/485	64.9%	3366	240.4	23 / 8	6.9

Running back

Player	G	Car	Yards	Y/C	TD
Michael Carter	13	92	333	3.6	1
Bam Knight	12	82	269	3.3	4

Receivers

Player	G	Rec/Tgt	Catch%	Yards	Y/G	TD
Michael Wilson WR1	17	78/126	61.9%	1006	59.2	7
Marvin Harrison Jr. WR2	12	41/73	56.2%	608	50.7	4
Trey McBride TE	17	126/169	74.6%	1239	72.9	11

SEA 2025

Quarterback Leo QB62

Player	G	C/ATT	Comp%	Yards	Y/G	TD/INT	Y/A
Sam Darnold	20	379/568	66.7%	4720	236	30 / 14	8.3

Running back

Player	G	Car	Yards	Y/C	TD
Kenneth Walker III	20	286	1340	4.7	9
Zach Charbonnet	17	189	750	4	12

Receivers

Player	G	Rec/Tgt	Catch%	Yards	Y/G	TD
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR1	20	136/189	72%	1992	99.6	12
Cooper Kupp WR2	19	62/93	66.7%	750	39.5	3
AJ Barner TE	20	58/75	77.3%	586	29.3	7

Touchdown leaders

Top three scrimmage touchdown scorers on each side this season, rushing and receiving.

ARI 2026

1. Trey McBride TE 5 0 rush · 5 rec
2. Tyler Allgeier RB 3 2 rush · 1 rec
3. Michael Wilson WR 2 0 rush · 2 rec

SEA 2026

1. Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR 9 0 rush · 9 rec
2. Emanuel Wilson RB 4 3 rush · 1 rec
3. Cooper Kupp WR 2 0 rush · 2 rec

Player and team statistics from the open nflverse dataset. Roles assigned by actual usage (most attempts, carries and targets), not depth chart.