Week 6 · Monday 20:15

WASWAS at SFSF

Levi's Stadium · outdoors

WAS moneyline+310
SF moneyline-395
SpreadSF -7.5
Total51.5

Washington Commanders at San Francisco 49ers

Every game this week on Leo’s Week 6 card →

This is a pre-game analysis page. Every stat above the Final result comes from games played before this one (through Week 5), and Leo’s numbers were frozen before kickoff. Market numbers are the closing line. Nothing here is a wager — the pick gate stays closed until Leo shows it can beat that line.

Leo’s read

What the model expected, frozen before kickoff (Oct 19, 5:32 PM ET). Each player projection is rate × volume × opponent adjustment — the columns show every input. None of this is a wager.

Leo win chanceSF 77%chance to win; information, not a pick
Leo total51.8points, both teams
Leo marginSF by 15.1expected winning margin

Passing yards

Playeryds/attattopp adjgamesLeo
Brock Purdy SF QB1 8.229.31.15 258
Athan Kaliakmanis WAS QB1 6.63211 196

Rushing yards

Playeryds/carrycaropp adjgamesLeo
Christian McCaffrey SF RB1 4.113.20.95 51
Rachaad White WAS RB1 4.29.50.94 38
Kaelon Black SF RB2 4.27.40.95 30
Austin Ekeler WAS RB2 4.27.40.92 29

Receiving yards

Playeryds/tgttgtopp adjgamesLeo
Mike Evans SF WR1 8.77.11.15 71
Terry McLaurin WAS WR2 9.76.514 65
Stefon Diggs WAS WR1 6.56.514 45
Jordan Watkins SF WR2 20.61.81.11 44
Antonio Williams WAS WR3 6.64.115 30
Brandin Cooks SF WR3 4.72.21.12 15
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Injury report

The official Week 6 report for each side, as captured Tue, Oct 20, 2:52 PM ET. Teams file game statuses on the last practice day; anyone not listed is expected to play. Final inactives come 90 minutes before kickoff.

WAS Game status

4 out · 9 questionable

  • Out Marcus MariotaQB Knee
  • Out Jacory Croskey-MerrittRB Groin
  • Out Charles OmenihuDE Groin / Ankle
  • Out Javontae Jean-BaptisteLB Pectoral
  • Questionable Jeremy McNicholsRB Quadricep
  • Questionable Stefon DiggsWR Hamstring
  • Questionable Lucas PatrickG Illness
  • Questionable Javon KinlawDT Ankle / Knee
  • Questionable Jordan MageeLB Hamstring
  • Questionable Trey AmosCB Ankle
  • Questionable Nick CrossS Illness
  • Questionable Percy ButlerS Hamstring
  • Questionable Tyler OwensS Hamstring
SF Game status

4 out · 6 questionable

  • Out Deebo Samuel Sr.WR Hamstring
  • Out Nick BosaDE Knee / Calf
  • Out Garret WallowLB Hamstring
  • Out Marques SigleS Ankle
  • Questionable Christian KirkWR Calf
  • Questionable Mike EvansWR Ribs / Achilles
  • Questionable Mykel WilliamsDE Knee
  • Questionable Gracen HaltonDT Quadricep
  • Questionable Upton StoutCB Shoulder
  • Questionable Siran NealS Neck

Leo ratings — head to head

Each rating is 0–100 against the league this season, built from efficiency rather than record: 50 is average, every 15 points is one standard deviation. These describe the teams — they are not used to price the game.

WAS This season SF
49 QuarterbackEPA, accuracy, giveaways 76
50 Offenseefficiency, explosives, ball security 69
38 DefenseEPA allowed, pressure, takeaways 48
44 Overall 58
QB 46 · OFF 48 · DEF 34 Last season QB 63 · OFF 56 · DEF 35

The turnover battle

Interceptions thrown against interceptions caught, and the same for fumbles. Bold is the better side of each line.

WAS Per game, this season SF
0.20Interceptions thrown0.40
0.60Interceptions caught0.60
0.20Fumbles lost0.20
1.00Fumbles forced1.60
1.60Takeaways2.20
0.40Giveaways0.60
+1.2Net turnover margin+1.6

Efficiency detail

The inputs behind the ratings above, shown raw so you can check the work.

WAS Offense SF
+0.001EPA per dropback+0.288
-0.1Completion % over expected+4.7
1.5%Interception rate2.1%
6.5%Sack rate taken3.1%
-0.009Rush EPA per carry-0.026
5.4%Explosive play rate5.9%
WAS Defense SF
+0.083EPA allowed per play+0.002
5.93Yards allowed per play5.22
3.3%Sack rate2.8%
0.8%Interception rate forced0.8%

Team comparison

Season totals on both sides of the ball. Left column is WAS, right is SF.

WAS This season SF
5Games5
197Pass yards/g239.2
139.6Rush yards/g128.6
8Passing TD13
1Interceptions thrown2
268.8Pass yards allowed/g210.8
95.4Rush yards allowed/g97.6
3Interceptions forced3
WAS Last season SF
195.8Pass yards/g250.2
134.7Rush yards/g105.3
19Passing TD36
12Interceptions thrown19
257.1Pass yards allowed/g231.7
141.8Rush yards allowed/g113.1

This season

Starting quarterback, lead backs and top receivers, by actual usage this season — games before this one only.

WAS 2026

Quarterback Leo QB49

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Jayden Daniels346/76 60.5%459153 3 / 06

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Jacory Croskey-Merritt567 2393.62
Rachaad White429 1184.10

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Stefon Diggs WR14 18/3158.1%170 42.53
Terry McLaurin WR24 14/2653.8%203 50.81
Chig Okonkwo TE3 8/1361.5%81 270
SF 2026

Quarterback Leo QB76

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Brock Purdy598/142 69%1196239.2 13 / 28.4

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Christian McCaffrey561 2864.75
Kaelon Black537 1363.70

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Mike Evans WR15 24/3470.6%326 65.23
Deebo Samuel Sr. WR25 16/2080%206 41.23
George Kittle TE5 21/2875%268 53.64

Last season

The same players' full prior season, for a baseline the early-season sample cannot give you.

WAS 2025

Quarterback Leo QB46

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Marcus Mariota10139/227 61.2%1695169.5 10 / 77.5

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Jacory Croskey-Merritt17175 8054.68
Chris Rodriguez Jr.12112 5004.56

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Deebo Samuel Sr. WR116 72/9972.7%727 45.45
Terry McLaurin WR210 38/6063.3%582 58.23
Zach Ertz TE13 50/7269.4%504 38.84
SF 2025

Quarterback Leo QB63

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Brock Purdy11230/342 67.3%2569233.5 22 / 137.5

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Christian McCaffrey19337 12853.810
Brian Robinson1995 4044.32

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Jauan Jennings WR117 58/9859.2%711 41.89
Ricky Pearsall WR210 36/5565.5%528 52.80
George Kittle TE12 58/7181.7%634 52.87

Touchdown props

Leo’s chance that each player scores a rushing or receiving touchdown in this game, the three most likely on each side, from its last read before kickoff.

Most likely to score: Christian McCaffrey (SF, 66%) and Mike Evans (SF, 46%). In 2023 to 2025, Leo’s top pick in a game scored 47% of the time, and at least one of its top two scored 69% of the time.
WAS Leo’s chance
  1. Stefon Diggs WR1 34% scored
  2. Jayden Daniels QB1 28% no TD
  3. Rachaad White RB1 24% scored
SF Leo’s chance
  1. Christian McCaffrey RB1 66% scored 2
  2. Mike Evans WR1 46% no TD
  3. George Kittle TE1 40% scored

Final result

WAS 17 – 23 SF

How the game was played

Quarterback, the backs who carried it and the receivers who caught it.

WAS
Jayden Daniels QB 29/40300 yds2 TD0 INT
Rachaad White RB 7 car27 yds0 TD4 rec, 30 yds
Jeremy McNichols RB 5 car13 yds0 TD
Austin Ekeler RB 1 car3 yds0 TD2 rec, 4 yds
Chig Okonkwo TE 7/769 yds0 TD
Treylon Burks WR 4/666 yds0 TD
Antonio Williams WR 3/450 yds0 TD
SF
Brock Purdy QB 21/29264 yds1 TD0 INT
Christian McCaffrey RB 16 car64 yds2 TD9 rec, 53 yds
Kaelon Black RB 8 car34 yds0 TD1 rec, 3 yds
Mike Evans WR 3/594 yds0 TD
George Kittle TE 5/869 yds1 TD
Christian McCaffrey RB 9/1053 yds0 TD

How Leo’s read held up

What Leo expected before kickoff, the posted number he was calling against, and what happened. A winner call is only made when one side is above 60%; a yardage or points call needs a real gap from the line before Leo takes a side.

MarketLeo expectedLineActualLeo’s side and result
WinnerSF 77%—SF wonNO PICK
Total points51.851.540no side · within 1.5 pts
MarginSF by 15.1SF −7SF by 6SF −7 · WRONG

“Main reason” names which of Leo’s two inputs was further off — how much the player was used, or how efficient he was when he was.

Passing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Brock Purdy SF 256.5258 no side 264 6 On target NO LEAN

Rushing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Austin Ekeler WAS 19.529 OVER 3 26 Fewer carries (1 vs 7.4 expected) WRONG
Christian McCaffrey SF 63.551 UNDER 64 13 More carries (16 vs 13.2 expected) WRONG
Rachaad White WAS 45.538 UNDER 27 11 Fewer carries (7 vs 9.5 expected) RIGHT
Kaelon Black SF 24.530 OVER 34 4 On target RIGHT

Receiving yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Terry McLaurin WAS 50.565 OVER 27 38 Fewer targets (1 vs 6.5 expected) WRONG
Mike Evans SF 66.571 OVER 94 23 More efficient (18.8 vs 8.7 yds/tgt) RIGHT
Jordan Watkins SF —44 no side 22 22 Fewer targets (1 vs 1.8 expected)
Antonio Williams WAS 23.530 OVER 50 20 More efficient (12.5 vs 6.6 yds/tgt) RIGHT
Brandin Cooks SF —15 no side 13 2 On target
Stefon Diggs WAS 38.545 OVER 44 1 On target RIGHT

Player and team statistics from the open nflverse dataset. Roles assigned by actual usage — most attempts, carries and targets — not depth chart.