Week 10 · Sunday 16:05

LA at ARI

State Farm Stadium · grass · Division game

Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals

Every game this week on Leo’s Week 10 card →

Leo’s read

Early read (Nov 9, 5:45 PM ET). Leo updates it every morning and again on game day; the last read before kickoff is frozen and graded. Player props are added on game day. Each player projection is rate × volume × opponent adjustment, and the columns show every input. None of this is a wager.

A call is graded after the game. PASS means no call: a moneyline needs more than 60% and a price better than -230; a spread needs Leo 1 point off the line and his two models agreeing on the winner; a total needs Leo 1.5 to 7 points off the line.

Why Leo has the Rams at 64%

What moved Leo's win chance away from a coin flip for this game, from Leo's early read, which updates until kickoff.

• Leo's win chance comes from four things: home field, the starting quarterbacks, each offense and each defense, all measured from games before this one.

Leo knows team results, quarterback play and the injury report as of its last read (Nov 9, 5:45 PM ET). It does not know game plans, weather changes or news after that read.

Leo ratings, head to head

Each rating is 0 to 100 against the league this season, built from efficiency rather than record: 50 is average, every 15 points is one standard deviation. They describe the teams; the “Why Leo has” section above says which of them push Leo’s number.

LA This season ARI

58 QuarterbackEPA, accuracy, giveaways 47

59 Offenseefficiency, explosives, ball security 45

62 DefenseEPA allowed, pressure, takeaways 37

60 Overall 41

QB 72 · OFF 73 · DEF 55 Last season QB 50 · OFF 47 · DEF 39

The turnover battle

Interceptions thrown against interceptions caught, and the same for fumbles. Bold is the better side of each line.

LA	Per game, this season	ARI
1.00	Interceptions thrown	0.78
0.78	Interceptions caught	0.33
0.56	Fumbles lost	0.11
1.22	Fumbles forced	1.00
2.00	Takeaways	1.33
1.56	Giveaways	0.89
+0.44	Net turnover margin	+0.44

Efficiency detail

The inputs behind the ratings above, shown raw so you can check the work.

LA	Offense	ARI
+0.133	EPA per dropback	-0.025
+0.2	Completion % over expected	+1.1
2.2%	Interception rate	1.9%
3.7%	Sack rate taken	6.7%
-0.014	Rush EPA per carry	-0.043
5.5%	Explosive play rate	4.4%
LA	Defense	ARI
-0.082	EPA allowed per play	+0.079
5.27	Yards allowed per play	5.85
3.3%	Sack rate	3.2%
1.4%	Interception rate forced	0.7%

Team comparison

Season totals on both sides of the ball. Left column is LA, right is ARI.

LA	This season	ARI
9	Games	9
265.2	Pass yards/g	231.1
125.3	Rush yards/g	102.7
16	Passing TD	13
9	Interceptions thrown	7
209	Pass yards allowed/g	230.7
103.8	Rush yards allowed/g	121.9
7	Interceptions forced	3
LA	Last season	ARI
282.2	Pass yards/g	256.1
124.7	Rush yards/g	93.1
52	Passing TD	29
9	Interceptions thrown	11
242.8	Pass yards allowed/g	242.8
110.1	Rush yards allowed/g	126.9

This season

Starting quarterback, lead backs and top receivers, by actual usage this season, from games before this one only.

LA 2026

Quarterback Leo QB58

Player	G	C/ATT	Comp%	Yards	Y/G	TD/INT	Y/A
Matthew Stafford	9	230/346	66.5%	2374	263.8	16 / 9	6.9

Running back

Player	G	Car	Yards	Y/C	TD
Kyren Williams	9	127	593	4.7	6
Blake Corum	9	86	447	5.2	4

Receivers

Player	G	Rec/Tgt	Catch%	Yards	Y/G	TD
Puka Nacua WR1	7	70/93	75.3%	715	102.1	4
Davante Adams WR2	6	30/49	61.2%	480	80	4
Tyler Higbee TE	8	28/39	71.8%	287	35.9	1

ARI 2026

Quarterback Leo QB47

Player	G	C/ATT	Comp%	Yards	Y/G	TD/INT	Y/A
Jacoby Brissett	8	193/305	63.3%	1719	214.9	10 / 7	5.6

Running back

Player	G	Car	Yards	Y/C	TD
Tyler Allgeier	9	89	369	4.1	2
Jeremiyah Love	6	76	268	3.5	1

Receivers

Player	G	Rec/Tgt	Catch%	Yards	Y/G	TD
Michael Wilson WR1	9	51/88	58%	546	60.7	2
Kendrick Bourne WR2	7	26/38	68.4%	263	37.6	0
Trey McBride TE	9	73/94	77.7%	598	66.4	5

Last season

The same players' full prior season, for a baseline the early-season sample cannot give you.

LA 2025

Quarterback Leo QB72

Player	G	C/ATT	Comp%	Yards	Y/G	TD/INT	Y/A
Matthew Stafford	20	454/716	63.4%	5643	282.2	52 / 9	7.9

Running back

Player	G	Car	Yards	Y/C	TD
Kyren Williams	20	303	1435	4.7	12
Blake Corum	20	171	865	5.1	6

Receivers

Player	G	Rec/Tgt	Catch%	Yards	Y/G	TD
Puka Nacua WR1	19	153/208	73.6%	2047	107.7	12
Davante Adams WR2	17	71/139	51.1%	974	57.3	15
Colby Parkinson TE	17	51/70	72.9%	560	32.9	9

ARI 2025

Quarterback Leo QB50

Player	G	C/ATT	Comp%	Yards	Y/G	TD/INT	Y/A
Jacoby Brissett	14	315/485	64.9%	3366	240.4	23 / 8	6.9

Running back

Player	G	Car	Yards	Y/C	TD
Michael Carter	13	92	333	3.6	1
Bam Knight	12	82	269	3.3	4

Receivers

Player	G	Rec/Tgt	Catch%	Yards	Y/G	TD
Michael Wilson WR1	17	78/126	61.9%	1006	59.2	7
Marvin Harrison Jr. WR2	12	41/73	56.2%	608	50.7	4
Trey McBride TE	17	126/169	74.6%	1239	72.9	11

Touchdown leaders

Top three scrimmage touchdown scorers on each side this season, rushing and receiving.

LA 2026

1. Kyren Williams RB 7 6 rush · 1 rec
2. Puka Nacua WR 5 1 rush · 4 rec
3. Blake Corum RB 5 4 rush · 1 rec

ARI 2026

1. Trey McBride TE 5 0 rush · 5 rec
2. Tyler Allgeier RB 3 2 rush · 1 rec
3. Michael Wilson WR 2 0 rush · 2 rec

Player and team statistics from the open nflverse dataset. Roles assigned by actual usage (most attempts, carries and targets), not depth chart.