Week 7 · Sunday 16:05
DEN
at
ARI
State Farm Stadium · grass
DEN moneyline-225
ARI moneyline+185
SpreadDEN -4.5
Total43.5
Denver Broncos at Arizona Cardinals
Every game this week on Leo’s Week 7 card →
This is a pre-game analysis page. Every stat above the Final result comes from games played before this one (through Week 6), and Leo’s numbers were frozen before kickoff. Market numbers are the closing line. Nothing here is a wager — the pick gate stays closed until Leo shows it can beat that line.
Leo’s read
What the model expected, frozen before kickoff (Oct 25, 7:52 AM ET). Each player projection is rate × volume × opponent adjustment — the columns show every input. None of this is a wager.
Leo win chanceDEN 51%chance to win; information, not a pick
Leo total43.9points, both teams
Leo marginDEN by 5.3expected winning margin
Passing yards
| Player | yds/att | att | opp adj | games | Leo |
|---|
| Jacoby Brissett ARI QB1 |
6 | 39.3 | 0.9 | 6 |
216 |
| Bo Nix DEN QB1 |
5.8 | 32.6 | 1 | 6 |
187 |
Rushing yards
| Player | yds/carry | car | opp adj | games | Leo |
|---|
| J.K. Dobbins DEN RB1 |
4.4 | 14.2 | 1 | 6 |
67 |
| Tyler Allgeier ARI RB1 |
3.7 | 8.3 | 1.2 | 6 |
37 |
| Bam Knight ARI RB2 |
4.2 | 6.8 | 1.2 | 3 |
34 |
| Jonah Coleman DEN RB2 |
4.3 | 6 | 1 | 2 |
28 |
Receiving yards
| Player | yds/tgt | tgt | opp adj | games | Leo |
|---|
| Michael Wilson ARI WR1 |
5.4 | 8.9 | 0.9 | 6 |
49 |
| Kendrick Bourne ARI WR2 |
7.9 | 5.3 | 0.9 | 5 |
43 |
| Jaylen Waddle DEN WR1 |
4.5 | 6.8 | 1 | 6 |
36 |
| Courtland Sutton DEN WR2 |
4.5 | 5.5 | 1 | 6 |
29 |
| Reggie Virgil ARI WR3 |
5.8 | 4.1 | 0.9 | 1 |
26 |
| Marvin Mims Jr. DEN WR3 |
3.5 | 2.7 | 1 | 4 |
13 |
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Injury report
The official Week 7 report for each side, as captured Sun, Oct 25, 7:53 AM ET. Teams file game statuses on the last practice day; anyone not listed is expected to play. Final inactives come 90 minutes before kickoff.
DEN
Game status
3 out · 2 questionable
- Out
Tyler BadieRB
Thumb
- Out
Jonah EllissLB
Ankle
- Out
Talanoa HufangaS
Ankle
- Questionable
Jonah ColemanRB
Ankle
- Questionable
Pat Surtain IICB
Ankle
ARI
Game status
4 out · 4 questionable
- Out
Jeremiyah LoveRB
Ankle
- Out
Jon Gaines IIG
Knee / Ankle
- Out
Walter NolenDT
Ankle
- Out
Andrew WingardS
Knee
- Questionable
Carson BeckQB
Back
- Questionable
Darius RobinsonDT
Back
- Questionable
Max MeltonCB
Knee
- Questionable
Budda BakerS
Groin / Illness
Leo ratings — head to head
Each rating is 0–100 against the league this season, built from efficiency rather than record: 50 is average, every 15 points is one standard deviation. These describe the teams — they are not used to price the game.
DEN
This season
ARI
45
QuarterbackEPA, accuracy, giveaways
48
42
Offenseefficiency, explosives, ball security
45
64
DefenseEPA allowed, pressure, takeaways
37
53
Overall
41
QB 52 · OFF 52 · DEF 68
Last season
QB 50 · OFF 47 · DEF 39
The turnover battle
Interceptions thrown against interceptions caught, and the same for fumbles. Bold is the better side of each line.
| DEN |
Per game, this season |
ARI |
| 0.50 | Interceptions thrown | 1.00 |
|---|
| 1.17 | Interceptions caught | 0.50 |
|---|
| 0.33 | Fumbles lost | 0.00 |
|---|
| 1.00 | Fumbles forced | 1.33 |
|---|
| 2.17 | Takeaways | 1.83 |
|---|
| 0.83 | Giveaways | 1.00 |
|---|
| +1.33 | Net turnover margin | +0.83 |
|---|
Efficiency detail
The inputs behind the ratings above, shown raw so you can check the work.
| DEN |
Offense |
ARI |
| -0.019 | EPA per dropback | +0.003 |
|---|
| -2.1 | Completion % over expected | +1.5 |
|---|
| 1.7% | Interception rate | 2.2% |
|---|
| 3.9% | Sack rate taken | 6.2% |
|---|
| -0.075 | Rush EPA per carry | -0.063 |
|---|
| 4.0% | Explosive play rate | 3.8% |
|---|
| DEN |
Defense |
ARI |
| -0.051 | EPA allowed per play | +0.085 |
|---|
| 5.16 | Yards allowed per play | 6.09 |
|---|
| 5.1% | Sack rate | 3.3% |
|---|
| 1.4% | Interception rate forced | 0.9% |
|---|
Team comparison
Season totals on both sides of the ball. Left column is DEN, right is ARI.
| DEN |
This season |
ARI |
| 6 | Games | 6 |
|---|
| 174.8 | Pass yards/g | 222.5 |
|---|
| 84.2 | Rush yards/g | 96.3 |
|---|
| 6 | Passing TD | 9 |
|---|
| 3 | Interceptions thrown | 6 |
|---|
| 230 | Pass yards allowed/g | 247.3 |
|---|
| 139.8 | Rush yards allowed/g | 120.8 |
|---|
| 7 | Interceptions forced | 3 |
|---|
| DEN |
Last season |
ARI |
| 228.6 | Pass yards/g | 256.1 |
|---|
| 114.1 | Rush yards/g | 93.1 |
|---|
| 29 | Passing TD | 29 |
|---|
| 13 | Interceptions thrown | 11 |
|---|
| 209.2 | Pass yards allowed/g | 242.8 |
|---|
| 98.5 | Rush yards allowed/g | 126.9 |
|---|
This season
Starting quarterback, lead backs and top receivers, by actual usage this season — games before this one only.
DEN
2026
Quarterback
Leo QB45
| Player | G | C/ATT | Comp% | Yards | Y/G | TD/INT | Y/A |
|---|
| Bo Nix | 6 | 114/189 |
60.3% | 1049 | 174.8 |
6 / 3 | 5.6 |
Running back
| Player | G | Car | Yards | Y/C | TD |
|---|
| J.K. Dobbins | 6 | 81 |
270 | 3.3 | 2 |
| RJ Harvey | 5 | 21 |
81 | 3.9 | 1 |
Receivers
| Player | G | Rec/Tgt | Catch% | Yards | Y/G | TD |
|---|
| Jaylen Waddle WR1 | 6 |
22/38 | 57.9% | 228 |
38 | 1 |
| Courtland Sutton WR2 | 6 |
13/28 | 46.4% | 123 |
20.5 | 1 |
| Evan Engram TE | 6 |
12/19 | 63.2% | 134 |
22.3 | 1 |
ARI
2026
Quarterback
Leo QB48
| Player | G | C/ATT | Comp% | Yards | Y/G | TD/INT | Y/A |
|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | 6 | 156/234 |
66.7% | 1328 | 221.3 |
9 / 6 | 5.7 |
Running back
| Player | G | Car | Yards | Y/C | TD |
|---|
| Jeremiyah Love | 5 | 67 |
245 | 3.7 | 1 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 6 | 53 |
157 | 3 | 1 |
Receivers
| Player | G | Rec/Tgt | Catch% | Yards | Y/G | TD |
|---|
| Michael Wilson WR1 | 6 |
33/58 | 56.9% | 320 |
53.3 | 1 |
| Kendrick Bourne WR2 | 5 |
22/30 | 73.3% | 225 |
45 | 0 |
| Trey McBride TE | 6 |
49/65 | 75.4% | 361 |
60.2 | 3 |
Last season
The same players' full prior season, for a baseline the early-season sample cannot give you.
DEN
2025
Quarterback
Leo QB52
| Player | G | C/ATT | Comp% | Yards | Y/G | TD/INT | Y/A |
|---|
| Bo Nix | 18 | 414/658 |
62.9% | 4210 | 233.9 |
28 / 12 | 6.4 |
Running back
| Player | G | Car | Yards | Y/C | TD |
|---|
| RJ Harvey | 19 | 165 |
597 | 3.6 | 7 |
| J.K. Dobbins | 10 | 153 |
772 | 5 | 4 |
Receivers
| Player | G | Rec/Tgt | Catch% | Yards | Y/G | TD |
|---|
| Courtland Sutton WR1 | 19 |
81/138 | 58.7% | 1087 |
57.2 | 8 |
| Troy Franklin WR2 | 17 |
65/104 | 62.5% | 709 |
41.7 | 6 |
| Evan Engram TE | 18 |
53/82 | 64.6% | 487 |
27.1 | 1 |
ARI
2025
Quarterback
Leo QB50
| Player | G | C/ATT | Comp% | Yards | Y/G | TD/INT | Y/A |
|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | 14 | 315/485 |
64.9% | 3366 | 240.4 |
23 / 8 | 6.9 |
Running back
| Player | G | Car | Yards | Y/C | TD |
|---|
| Michael Carter | 13 | 92 |
333 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Bam Knight | 12 | 82 |
269 | 3.3 | 4 |
Receivers
| Player | G | Rec/Tgt | Catch% | Yards | Y/G | TD |
|---|
| Michael Wilson WR1 | 17 |
78/126 | 61.9% | 1006 |
59.2 | 7 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. WR2 | 12 |
41/73 | 56.2% | 608 |
50.7 | 4 |
| Trey McBride TE | 17 |
126/169 | 74.6% | 1239 |
72.9 | 11 |
Touchdown props
Leo’s chance that each player scores a rushing or receiving touchdown in this game, the three most likely on each side, from its last read before kickoff.
Most likely to score: Trey McBride (ARI, 44%) and J.K. Dobbins (DEN, 37%). In 2023 to 2025, Leo’s top pick in a game scored 47% of the time, and at least one of its top two scored 69% of the time.
DEN
Leo’s chance
- J.K. Dobbins
RB1
37%
- Jaylen Waddle
WR1
31%
- RJ Harvey
RB2
23%
ARI
Leo’s chance
- Trey McBride
TE1
44%
- Michael Wilson
WR1
34%
- Tyler Allgeier
RB1
27%
Player and team statistics from the open nflverse dataset. Roles assigned by actual usage — most attempts, carries and targets — not depth chart.