Week 8 · Sunday 13:00

ARIARI at DALDAL

AT&T Stadium · closed

ARI moneyline+270
DAL moneyline-340
SpreadDAL -7
Total54.5

Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys

Every game this week on Leo’s Week 8 card →

Leo gives the Dallas Cowboys a 70% chance to beat the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday afternoon, November 1, at AT&T Stadium, in Week 8. That is above 60%, so it counts as a Leo pick. Leo projects 52 total points (posted total 54.5) and expects the Cowboys by 10.3 (posted spread Cowboys −7). The players Leo thinks are most likely to score a touchdown: Javonte Williams (66%) and CeeDee Lamb (56%). Starting quarterbacks: Jacoby Brissett for the Cardinals and Dak Prescott for the Cowboys.

Final: Cardinals 33, Cowboys 30 in overtime. Leo gave the Dallas Cowboys a 70% chance, so the winner read was wrong. The game totaled 63 points against Leo's 52 and the posted 54.5. Touchdowns: Tyler Allgeier (2), Trey McBride, Michael Wilson, Dak Prescott and Ryan Flournoy.

This is a pre-game analysis page. Every stat above the Final result comes from games played before this one (through Week 7), and Leo’s numbers were frozen before kickoff. Market numbers are the closing line. Nothing here is a wager. Calls are a public test, graded after every game.

Leo’s read

What the model expected, frozen before kickoff (Nov 1, 12:00 PM ET). Each player projection is rate × volume × opponent adjustment, and the columns show every input. None of this is a wager.

Leo pickDAL 70%Leo gives this team more than 60%; price -325 at the read
Leo total52points, both teams
Leo marginDAL by 10.3expected winning margin

Passing yards

Playeryds/attattopp adjgamesLeo
Dak Prescott DAL QB1 738.517 264
Jacoby Brissett ARI QB1 640.317 228

Rushing yards

Playeryds/carrycaropp adjgamesLeo
Javonte Williams DAL RB1 4.616.11.17 85
Jeremiyah Love ARI RB1 4.113.71.25 65
Tyler Allgeier ARI RB2 3.78.31.27 37
Tyler Goodson DAL RB2 4.241.14 20

Receiving yards

Playeryds/tgttgtopp adjgamesLeo
George Pickens DAL WR2 9.18.217 80
Ryan Flournoy DAL WR3 12.55.117 68
CeeDee Lamb DAL WR1 5.610.817 65
Michael Wilson ARI WR1 5.48.817 50
Kendrick Bourne ARI WR2 5.75.316 33
Reggie Virgil ARI WR3 5.84.111 27

Why Leo has the Cowboys at 70%

What moved Leo's win chance away from a coin flip for this game, from the inputs frozen before kickoff.

Leo knows team results, quarterback play and the injury report as of its last read (Nov 1, 12:00 PM ET). It does not know game plans, weather changes or news after that read.

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Injury report

The official Week 8 report for each side, as captured Mon, Nov 2, 7:03 AM ET. Teams file game statuses on the last practice day; anyone not listed is expected to play. Final inactives come 90 minutes before kickoff.

ARI Game status

2 out · 3 questionable

  • Out Jon Gaines IIG Ankle
  • Out Walter NolenDT Ankle
  • Questionable Hjalte FroholdtC Knee
  • Questionable Max MeltonCB Knee
  • Questionable Andrew WingardS Knee
DAL Game status

2 out · 6 questionable

  • Out KaVontae TurpinWR Ribs
  • Out Dee WintersLB Calf
  • Questionable George PickensWR Shoulder / Hamstring
  • Questionable Luke SchoonmakerTE Groin
  • Questionable Jonathan BullardDT Calf
  • Questionable Kenny ClarkDT Back
  • Questionable Marist LiufauLB Forearm
  • Questionable P.J. LockeS Foot

Leo ratings, head to head

Each rating is 0 to 100 against the league this season, built from efficiency rather than record: 50 is average, every 15 points is one standard deviation. They describe the teams; the “Why Leo has” section above says which of them push Leo’s number.

ARI This season DAL
46 QuarterbackEPA, accuracy, giveaways 62
44 Offenseefficiency, explosives, ball security 63
35 DefenseEPA allowed, pressure, takeaways 24
40 Overall 44
QB 50 · OFF 47 · DEF 39 Last season QB 63 · OFF 60 · DEF 27

The turnover battle

Interceptions thrown against interceptions caught, and the same for fumbles. Bold is the better side of each line.

ARI Per game, this season DAL
0.86Interceptions thrown0.71
0.43Interceptions caught0.29
0.00Fumbles lost0.14
1.14Fumbles forced0.86
1.57Takeaways1.14
0.86Giveaways0.86
+0.71Net turnover margin+0.29

Efficiency detail

The inputs behind the ratings above, shown raw so you can check the work.

ARI Offense DAL
-0.014EPA per dropback+0.175
+0.9Completion % over expected+1.4
2.0%Interception rate1.9%
6.2%Sack rate taken3.3%
-0.060Rush EPA per carry+0.019
4.1%Explosive play rate5.4%
ARI Defense DAL
+0.094EPA allowed per play+0.150
6.15Yards allowed per play6.16
3.2%Sack rate2.6%
0.8%Interception rate forced0.5%

Team comparison

Season totals on both sides of the ball. Left column is ARI, right is DAL.

ARI This season DAL
7Games7
229.6Pass yards/g264.4
96Rush yards/g94.3
10Passing TD13
6Interceptions thrown5
243.7Pass yards allowed/g235.1
126.3Rush yards allowed/g145.7
3Interceptions forced2
ARI Last season DAL
256.1Pass yards/g278.5
93.1Rush yards/g125.6
29Passing TD31
11Interceptions thrown12
242.8Pass yards allowed/g265.9
126.9Rush yards allowed/g125.5

This season

Starting quarterback, lead backs and top receivers, by actual usage this season, from games before this one only.

ARI 2026

Quarterback Leo QB46

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Jacoby Brissett7183/282 64.9%1600228.6 10 / 65.7

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Jeremiyah Love567 2453.71
Tyler Allgeier761 1762.91

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Michael Wilson WR17 37/6656.1%375 53.61
Kendrick Bourne WR26 25/3669.4%234 390
Trey McBride TE7 59/7875.6%472 67.44
DAL 2026

Quarterback Leo QB62

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Dak Prescott7178/273 65.2%1851264.4 13 / 56.8

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Javonte Williams7110 4724.38
Tyler Goodson421 723.40

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
CeeDee Lamb WR17 53/8165.4%651 936
George Pickens WR27 37/5863.8%485 69.32
Jake Ferguson TE7 17/2568%115 16.43

Last season

The same players' full prior season, for a baseline the early-season sample cannot give you.

ARI 2025

Quarterback Leo QB50

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Jacoby Brissett14315/485 64.9%3366240.4 23 / 86.9

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Michael Carter1392 3333.61
Bam Knight1282 2693.34

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Michael Wilson WR117 78/12661.9%1006 59.27
Marvin Harrison Jr. WR212 41/7356.2%608 50.74
Trey McBride TE17 126/16974.6%1239 72.911
DAL 2025

Quarterback Leo QB63

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Dak Prescott17404/600 67.3%4552267.8 30 / 107.6

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Javonte Williams16252 12014.811
Malik Davis1052 2504.82

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
George Pickens WR117 93/13767.9%1429 84.19
CeeDee Lamb WR213 75/11764.1%1077 82.83
Jake Ferguson TE17 82/10280.4%600 35.38

Touchdown props

Leo’s chance that each player scores a rushing or receiving touchdown in this game, the three most likely on each side, from its last read before kickoff.

Most likely to score: Javonte Williams (DAL, 66%) and CeeDee Lamb (DAL, 56%). In 2023 to 2025, Leo’s top pick in a game scored 47% of the time, and at least one of its top two scored 69% of the time.
ARI Leo’s chance
  1. Trey McBride TE1 46% scored
  2. Jeremiyah Love RB1 37% no TD
  3. Michael Wilson WR1 34% scored
DAL Leo’s chance
  1. Javonte Williams RB1 66% no TD
  2. CeeDee Lamb WR1 56% no TD
  3. George Pickens WR2 36% no TD

Final result

ARI 33 – 30 DAL (OT)

How the game was played

Quarterback, the backs who carried it and the receivers who caught it.

ARI
Jacoby Brissett QB 10/23119 yds0 TD1 INT
Tyler Allgeier RB 11 car147 yds1 TD5 rec, 44 yds
Jeremiyah Love RB 9 car23 yds0 TD
Bam Knight RB 3 car8 yds0 TD1 rec, 10 yds
Michael Wilson WR 8/15111 yds1 TD
Trey McBride TE 7/872 yds1 TD
Tyler Allgeier RB 5/544 yds1 TD
DAL
Dak Prescott QB 19/29195 yds1 TD0 INT
Javonte Williams RB 24 car56 yds0 TD1 rec, 1 yds
Tyler Goodson RB 7 car14 yds0 TD2 rec, 19 yds
Ryan Flournoy WR 1 car3 yds0 TD3 rec, 38 yds
CeeDee Lamb WR 7/1158 yds0 TD
George Pickens WR 2/448 yds0 TD
Ryan Flournoy WR 3/438 yds1 TD

How Leo’s read held up

What Leo expected before kickoff, the posted number he was calling against, and what happened. A winner call is only made when one side is above 60%; a yardage or points call needs a real gap from the line before Leo takes a side.

MarketLeo expectedLineActualLeo’s side and result
WinnerDAL 70%—ARI wonWRONG
Total points5254.563no side · within 1.5 pts
MarginDAL by 10.3DAL −7ARI by 3DAL −7 · WRONG

“Main reason” names which of Leo’s two inputs was further off, how much the player was used, or how efficient he was when he was.

Passing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Jacoby Brissett ARI —228 no side 119 109 Fewer attempts (23 vs 40.3 expected)
Dak Prescott DAL —264 no side 195 69 Fewer attempts (29 vs 38.5 expected)

Rushing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Tyler Allgeier ARI —37 no side 147 110 More efficient (13.4 vs 3.7 yds/carry)
Jeremiyah Love ARI —65 no side 23 42 Fewer carries (9 vs 13.7 expected)
Javonte Williams DAL —85 no side 56 29 Less efficient (2.3 vs 4.6 yds/carry)
Tyler Goodson DAL —20 no side 14 6 On target

Receiving yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Michael Wilson ARI —50 no side 111 61 More targets (15 vs 8.8 expected)
George Pickens DAL —80 no side 48 32 Fewer targets (4 vs 8.2 expected)
Ryan Flournoy DAL —68 no side 38 30 Fewer targets (4 vs 5.1 expected)
Reggie Virgil ARI —27 no side 0 27 Fewer targets (2 vs 4.1 expected)
CeeDee Lamb DAL —65 no side 58 7 On target
Kendrick Bourne ARI —33 no side 29 4 On target

Player and team statistics from the open nflverse dataset. Roles assigned by actual usage (most attempts, carries and targets), not depth chart.

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