MLB matchup analysis
Orioles vs Mets Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at Citi Field · 7:10 PM ET
Leo decision: Pass on Orioles vs Mets
The case for New York Mets
The case for Baltimore Orioles
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
This is a bullpen game -- no confirmed traditional starter, so Leo does not publish an official pick here.
Final result
Orioles 7, Mets 1
How the analysis held up
Baltimore Orioles won. Leo's model favored the other side.
Leo's two internal reads disagreed pregame by 55.9 points — the team-strength model favored New York Mets, the run-projection model favored Baltimore Orioles. The run-projection model had the winner here.
Chris Bassitt (No clear pitching-plan edge), the starter Leo's pitcher score favored, actually outpitched Xzavion Curry: 6.2 IP, 1 ER (1.35 ERA) against 3.0 IP, 6 ER (18.00 ERA). The edge held up.
The Baltimore Orioles bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (High risk). In relief it actually allowed 0 earned runs over 2.1 innings (0.00 ERA) — the risk read did not show up on the scoreboard tonight.
The New York Mets bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (High risk). In relief it actually allowed 1 earned run over 6.0 innings (1.50 ERA) — the risk read did not show up on the scoreboard tonight.
New York Mets scored 1, 3 fewer than the 4 pregame projection.
Likely driver: Xzavion Curry, the pick's own starter, was rocked for a 18.00 ERA, and the Baltimore Orioles bullpen quietly shut the game down (0.00 ERA over 2.1 innings).
Game information
| Matchup | Baltimore Orioles at New York Mets |
|---|---|
| Date | Wednesday, September 16, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:10 PM ET |
| Venue | Citi Field |
| Starting pitchers | Chris Bassitt vs Xzavion Curry |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 73°F, 1% precipitation chance, 5 mph wind from SE. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Orioles | Mets |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Opener / bullpen game |
| Expected innings | 5 | 3 |
| Throws | R | R |
| Leo pitcher score (higher is better) | 52 | 44 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 4.67 | 5.48 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.54 | 1.45 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 6.6 | 6.3 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 7.8% | 6.4% |
| K% (higher is better) | 16.4% | 16.0% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 8.5% | 9.6% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 3.5 | 3.8 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 0.9 | 3.0 |
| Ground-ball rate | 51.5% | 25.5% |
| Fly-ball rate | 48.5% | 74.5% |
Pitching plan edge: Leo gives Chris Bassitt the edge over the New York Mets pitching plan (2 points on Leo's pitcher score). Xzavion Curry is projected for only 3 innings, with the New York Mets bullpen covering the rest -- this compares Chris Bassitt's own line against the New York Mets blended starting-pitcher-and-bullpen quality, not two starters directly.
Blended read: For the New York Mets, the bullpen is projected to throw more of the game than Xzavion Curry (about 3 innings for the starter), so Leo grades that side on a whole-game effective ERA of 5.15 rather than Xzavion Curry's own 5.48. Whole-game, that is 3.86 for the Baltimore Orioles against 5.15 on the other side, so the blended read leans Baltimore Orioles.
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Both sides arrive in similar form. Orioles are 5-5 in their last 10 and averaging 3.8 runs per game over the last 15 days; Mets are 5-5 in their last 10 and averaging 6.5 runs per game over the last 15 days. Season run differential separates them by almost nothing (-0.17 against -0.28).
| Metric | Orioles | Mets |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 5-5 | 5-5 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 6-4 on the road | 3-7 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.656 | 0.799 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.293 | 0.349 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 3.8 | 6.5 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 29.4% | 18.8% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Orioles | Mets |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.684 (-0.027 vs szn) | 0.724 (+0.022 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 4.31 (-0.186 vs szn) | 4.70 (+0.427 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.302 (-0.013 vs szn) | 0.318 (+0.008 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 27.4% (+2.5% vs szn) | 20.9% (-1.5% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Mets have been the better offense, 0.318 wOBA to 0.302. Orioles are striking out at 27.4% over the window — something the opposing starter can lean on.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Orioles | Mets |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 74-78 | 69-82 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | -0.17 | -0.28 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.50 | 4.28 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.67 | 4.56 |
| Season OPS | 0.709 | 0.704 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 24.9% | 22.4% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.707 | 0.714 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Orioles and Mets are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Orioles | Mets |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 9.6/10, High risk | 7.3/10, Tired |
| Efficiency | 6.0/10, Effective | 2.8/10, Struggling |
| Combined risk | 9.1/10, High risk | 8.4/10, High risk |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 25.3 | 20.7 |
| Back-to-back arms | 5 | 6 |
| 7-day ERA | 2.84 | 6.97 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.18 | 1.65 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model and market are close. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
More games today
All matchups →Every Leo pick, graded in public
Free daily model card by email, or open today's full slate. Membership adds delivery before first pitch.
Model outputs are not guarantees. Leo provides analysis and education only. Every official pick remains visible on the Results page. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.