MLB matchup analysis
Orioles vs Blue Jays Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Friday, September 11, 2026 at Rogers Centre · 7:07 PM ET
Leo decision: Pass on Orioles vs Blue Jays
The case for Baltimore Orioles
The case for Toronto Blue Jays
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
The combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Final result
Orioles 7, Blue Jays 4
How the analysis held up
Baltimore Orioles won, the side Leo's model favored.
Chris Bassitt (Baltimore Orioles), the starter Leo's pitcher score favored, actually outpitched Max Scherzer: 5.0 IP, 2 ER (3.60 ERA) against 5.0 IP, 6 ER (10.80 ERA). The edge held up.
Baltimore Orioles scored 7, 2 more than the 5 pregame projection.
Game information
| Matchup | Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays |
|---|---|
| Date | Friday, September 11, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:07 PM ET |
| Venue | Rogers Centre |
| Starting pitchers | Chris Bassitt vs Max Scherzer |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 64°F, 0% precipitation chance, 4 mph wind from E. This venue has a roof, but the roof status is not confirmed. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Orioles | Blue Jays |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 5 | 4⅔ |
| Throws | R | R |
| Leo pitcher score (higher is better) | 50 | 43 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 4.82 | 6.38 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.58 | 1.37 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 6.5 | 6.8 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 7.1% | 7.8% |
| K% (higher is better) | 15.9% | 17.3% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 8.8% | 9.5% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 3.6 | 3.7 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.0 | 1.9 |
| Ground-ball rate | 51.6% | 34.2% |
| Fly-ball rate | 48.4% | 65.8% |
Pitcher edge: Leo gives Chris Bassitt a 7-point edge over Max Scherzer, driven mainly by HR/9 (1.00 vs 1.86) and ERA (4.82 vs 6.38).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Orioles are 3-7 in their last 10 and averaging 4.1 runs per game over the last 15 days; Blue Jays are 6-4 in their last 10 and averaging 4.8 runs per game over the last 15 days. Season run differential separates them by almost nothing (-0.16 against -0.28).
| Metric | Orioles | Blue Jays |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 3-7 | 6-4 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 7-3 on the road | 6-4 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.630 | 0.759 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.282 | 0.336 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 4.1 | 4.8 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 26.9% | 16.6% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Orioles | Blue Jays |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.693 (-0.018 vs szn) | 0.749 (+0.057 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 4.64 (+0.129 vs szn) | 4.33 (+0.327 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.306 (-0.009 vs szn) | 0.329 (+0.023 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 25.5% (+1.0% vs szn) | 17.3% (-1.9% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Blue Jays have been the better offense, 0.329 wOBA to 0.306. They are running hot against their own season line (+0.023 wOBA). Orioles are striking out at 25.5% over the window — something the opposing starter can lean on.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Orioles | Blue Jays |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 71-76 | 73-74 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | -0.16 | -0.28 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.51 | 4.01 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.68 | 4.29 |
| Season OPS | 0.710 | 0.692 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 24.6% | 19.2% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.706 | 0.706 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Orioles and Blue Jays are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Orioles | Blue Jays |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 5.4/10, Normal | 6.4/10, Tired |
| Efficiency | 6.4/10, Effective | 7.2/10, Effective |
| Combined risk | 4.7/10, Normal | 5.3/10, Normal |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 21.3 | 29.3 |
| Back-to-back arms | 6 | 4 |
| 7-day ERA | 2.11 | 1.53 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.17 | 0.89 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model and market are close. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
More games today
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