MLB matchup analysis
Guardians vs Orioles Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Wednesday, September 9, 2026 at Oriole Park at Camden Yards · 6:35 PM ET
Leo prediction: Cleveland Guardians moneyline
The case for Cleveland Guardians
The case for Baltimore Orioles
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
Cleveland Guardians remains on the watchlist. Lab Rating 6.6/10: conviction 6.37, pitching plan 30.67, offense 28.48. Leo projects 67.7% against a 51.8% no-vig market number, a 16.0% model edge at -113. Cleveland Guardians owns the starting pitcher edge by 10 points. Bullpen read: Elevated volatility. Cleveland Guardians's pen efficiency: Effective (6.6/10). Lineup check: Cleveland Guardians is a touch above its season form (+0.020 OPS); Baltimore Orioles is a touch below its season form (-0.028 OPS).
Final result
Guardians 5, Orioles 9
How the analysis held up
Baltimore Orioles won. Leo's model favored the other side.
Leo's two internal reads disagreed pregame by 46.6 points — the team-strength model favored Cleveland Guardians, the run-projection model favored Baltimore Orioles. The run-projection model had the winner here.
Foster Griffin (Cleveland Guardians) was Leo's favored starter by pitcher score, but Shane Baz actually pitched better tonight: 5.2 IP, 5 ER (7.94 ERA) against 2.1 IP, 8 ER (30.86 ERA). The edge did not show up in this game. Both starters struggled; this was not a case of one clean outing beating one bad one.
The Cleveland Guardians bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (Tired). In relief it actually allowed 0 earned runs over 5.2 innings (0.00 ERA) — the risk read did not show up on the scoreboard tonight. Note: 1 of the runs charged to the Cleveland Guardians pitching staff overall was unearned — not something the bullpen's stuff should be blamed for.
The Baltimore Orioles bullpen was not flagged pregame, but it had a night worth noting: 0 earned runs allowed over 3.1 relief innings (0.00 ERA) — quietly better than the pregame read implied.
Cleveland Guardians scored 5, 1.5 more than the 3.5 pregame projection.
Baltimore Orioles scored 9, 4.7 more than the 4.3 pregame projection.
Likely driver: Foster Griffin, the pick's own starter, was rocked for a 30.86 ERA, and Baltimore Orioles's offense scored 4.7 more runs than projected.
Game information
| Matchup | Cleveland Guardians at Baltimore Orioles |
|---|---|
| Date | Wednesday, September 9, 2026 |
| First pitch | 6:35 PM ET |
| Venue | Oriole Park at Camden Yards |
| Starting pitchers | Foster Griffin vs Shane Baz |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 84°F, 2% precipitation chance, 7 mph wind from SE. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Guardians | Orioles |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 5⅔ | 5⅔ |
| Throws | L | R |
| Leo pitcher score (higher is better) | 69 | 63 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 3.65 | 4.05 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.18 | 1.33 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 8.1 | 8.0 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 15.3% | 12.8% |
| K% (higher is better) | 21.7% | 20.8% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 6.4% | 8.0% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 2.4 | 3.1 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.3 | 0.7 |
| Ground-ball rate | 52.0% | 44.1% |
| Fly-ball rate | 48.0% | 55.9% |
Pitcher edge: Leo gives Foster Griffin a 6-point edge over Shane Baz, driven mainly by BB/9 (2.4 vs 3.1) and WHIP (1.18 vs 1.33).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Guardians are 6-4 in their last 10 and averaging 4.4 runs per game over the last 15 days; Orioles are 3-7 in their last 10 and averaging 4.6 runs per game over the last 15 days. Season run differential separates them by almost nothing (-0.11 against -0.18).
| Metric | Guardians | Orioles |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 6-4 | 3-7 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 7-3 on the road | 4-6 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.706 | 0.682 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.312 | 0.303 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 4.4 | 4.6 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 19.4% | 26.0% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Guardians | Orioles |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.707 (+0.021 vs szn) | 0.694 (-0.016 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 4.46 (+0.396 vs szn) | 4.59 (+0.090 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.313 (+0.007 vs szn) | 0.306 (-0.008 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 17.4% (-3.9% vs szn) | 25.3% (+0.8% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Guardians have been the better offense, 0.313 wOBA to 0.306. Orioles are striking out at 25.3% over the window — something the opposing starter can lean on.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Guardians | Orioles |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 74-72 | 70-76 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | -0.11 | -0.18 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.07 | 4.50 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.18 | 4.68 |
| Season OPS | 0.686 | 0.710 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 21.2% | 24.5% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.697 | 0.715 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Guardians and Orioles are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Guardians | Orioles |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 8.0/10, Tired | 6.0/10, Normal |
| Efficiency | 6.6/10, Effective | 5.1/10, Average |
| Combined risk | 7.2/10, Tired | 6.0/10, Normal |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 36.7 | 24.3 |
| Back-to-back arms | 6 | 6 |
| 7-day ERA | 2.21 | 4.07 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.01 | 1.32 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 7.8 runs below the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
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