MLB matchup analysis
Orioles vs Mets Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Monday, September 14, 2026 at Citi Field · 7:10 PM ET
Leo decision: Pass on Orioles vs Mets
The case for Baltimore Orioles
The case for New York Mets
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
The combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Final result
Orioles 2, Mets 1
How the analysis held up
Baltimore Orioles won, the side Leo's model favored.
Jonah Tong (No clear pitching-plan edge), the starter Leo's pitcher score favored, actually outpitched Brandon Young: 6.0 IP, 0 ER (0.00 ERA) against 5.0 IP, 1 ER (1.80 ERA). The edge held up. Both starters were sharp; the edge is a narrow one between two good outings.
The Baltimore Orioles bullpen was not flagged pregame, but it had a night worth noting: 0 earned runs allowed over 4.0 relief innings (0.00 ERA) — quietly better than the pregame read implied.
Baltimore Orioles scored 2, 3 fewer than the 5 pregame projection.
New York Mets scored 1, 3.3 fewer than the 4.3 pregame projection.
Game information
| Matchup | Baltimore Orioles at New York Mets |
|---|---|
| Date | Monday, September 14, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:10 PM ET |
| Venue | Citi Field |
| Starting pitchers | Brandon Young vs Jonah Tong |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 69°F, 0% precipitation chance, 9 mph wind from NW. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Orioles | Mets |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 5⅔ | 5 |
| Throws | R | R |
| Leo pitcher score (higher is better) | 63 | 65 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 3.65 | 3.43 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.37 | 1.19 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 7.3 | 8.6 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 10.0% | 12.1% |
| K% (higher is better) | 18.8% | 22.0% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 8.7% | 9.9% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 3.4 | 3.9 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.3 | 0.9 |
| Ground-ball rate | 45.9% | 37.8% |
| Fly-ball rate | 54.1% | 62.2% |
Pitcher edge: Leo gives Jonah Tong a 2-point edge over Brandon Young, driven mainly by HR/9 (0.86 vs 1.30) and WHIP (1.19 vs 1.37).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Orioles are 3-7 in their last 10 and averaging 3.9 runs per game over the last 15 days; Mets are 7-3 in their last 10 and averaging 6.5 runs per game over the last 15 days. Season run differential separates them by almost nothing (-0.23 against -0.23).
| Metric | Orioles | Mets |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 3-7 | 7-3 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 6-4 on the road | 4-6 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.648 | 0.802 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.291 | 0.350 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 3.9 | 6.5 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 28.0% | 20.1% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Orioles | Mets |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.678 (-0.031 vs szn) | 0.742 (+0.039 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 4.31 (-0.153 vs szn) | 4.81 (+0.521 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.300 (-0.014 vs szn) | 0.326 (+0.016 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 26.7% (+2.0% vs szn) | 21.8% (-0.7% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Mets have been the better offense, 0.326 wOBA to 0.300. They are running hot against their own season line (+0.016 wOBA). Orioles are striking out at 26.7% over the window — something the opposing starter can lean on.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Orioles | Mets |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 72-78 | 69-80 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | -0.23 | -0.23 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.46 | 4.29 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.69 | 4.53 |
| Season OPS | 0.709 | 0.704 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 24.7% | 22.4% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.706 | 0.713 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Orioles and Mets are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Orioles | Mets |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 6.0/10, Normal | 4.8/10, Normal |
| Efficiency | 4.5/10, Average | 3.6/10, Below average |
| Combined risk | 6.3/10, Tired | 5.5/10, Normal |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 21.3 | 20.0 |
| Back-to-back arms | 7 | 6 |
| 7-day ERA | 4.64 | 5.85 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.45 | 1.60 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 2.1 runs above the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
More games today
All matchups →Every Leo pick, graded in public
Free daily model card by email, or open today's full slate. Membership adds delivery before first pitch.
Model outputs are not guarantees. Leo provides analysis and education only. Every official pick remains visible on the Results page. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.