MLB matchup analysis
Giants vs Mets Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Sunday, September 6, 2026 at Citi Field · 1:40 PM ET
Leo prediction: San Francisco Giants moneyline
The case for San Francisco Giants
The case for New York Mets
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
San Francisco Giants remains on the watchlist. Lab Rating 7.4/10: conviction 6.98, pitching plan 36, offense 31.23. Leo projects 69.0% against a 39.7% no-vig market number, a 29.3% model edge at +152. San Francisco Giants owns the starting pitcher edge by 12 points. Bullpen read: Adds caution. San Francisco Giants's pen efficiency: Struggling (2.7/10). Pitching plan: Cesar Perdomo 4.5 IP + remaining bullpen 4.5 IP. Bullpen fatigue, efficiency, and combined risk grade only the innings assigned to the bullpen. Lineup check: San Francisco Giants is swinging a hot bat (+0.071 OPS); New York Mets is near its season form (+0.012 OPS).
Final result
Giants 2, Mets 4
How the analysis held up
New York Mets won. Leo's model favored the other side.
Leo's two internal reads disagreed pregame by 39.2 points — the team-strength model favored San Francisco Giants, the run-projection model favored New York Mets. The run-projection model had the winner here.
Cesar Perdomo (San Francisco Giants), the starter Leo's pitcher score favored, actually outpitched Christian Scott: 6.0 IP, 0 ER (0.00 ERA) against 4.2 IP, 2 ER (3.86 ERA). The edge held up.
The San Francisco Giants bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (High risk). In relief it actually allowed 4 earned runs over 2.0 innings (18.00 ERA) — the risk read showed up.
The New York Mets bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (Tired). In relief it actually allowed 0 earned runs over 4.1 innings (0.00 ERA) — the risk read did not show up on the scoreboard tonight.
San Francisco Giants scored 2, 2.6 fewer than the 4.6 pregame projection.
Likely driver: the San Francisco Giants bullpen allowed 4 earned runs over 2.0 relief innings (18.00 ERA), which is exactly the risk flagged pregame, and the New York Mets bullpen quietly shut the game down (0.00 ERA over 4.1 innings).
Game information
| Matchup | San Francisco Giants at New York Mets |
|---|---|
| Date | Sunday, September 6, 2026 |
| First pitch | 1:40 PM ET |
| Venue | Citi Field |
| Starting pitchers | Cesar Perdomo vs Christian Scott |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 68°F, 1% precipitation chance, 4 mph wind from SE. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Giants | Mets |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 6 | 4⅔ |
| Throws | L | R |
| Leo pitcher score (higher is better) | 76 | 66 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 0.90 | 3.81 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 0.80 | 1.29 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 7.2 | 10.9 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 17.1% | 17.6% |
| K% (higher is better) | 22.9% | 27.8% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 5.7% | 10.2% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 1.8 | 4.0 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| Ground-ball rate | 52.6% | 39.1% |
| Fly-ball rate | 47.4% | 60.9% |
Pitcher edge: Leo gives Cesar Perdomo a 10-point edge over Christian Scott, driven mainly by BB/9 (1.8 vs 4.0) and ERA (0.90 vs 3.81).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Giants are 5-5 in their last 10 and averaging 5.6 runs per game over the last 15 days; Mets are 4-6 in their last 10 and averaging 4.4 runs per game over the last 15 days. Season run differential separates them by almost nothing (-0.52 against -0.34).
| Metric | Giants | Mets |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 5-5 | 4-6 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 3-7 on the road | 5-5 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.789 | 0.708 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.346 | 0.312 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 5.6 | 4.4 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 22.3% | 21.6% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Giants | Mets |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.690 (-0.025 vs szn) | 0.716 (+0.019 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 4.28 (+0.088 vs szn) | 4.22 (+0.063 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.306 (-0.008 vs szn) | 0.316 (+0.008 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 23.6% (+2.2% vs szn) | 22.1% |
Over the last 30 days the Mets have been the better offense, 0.316 wOBA to 0.306.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Giants | Mets |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 59-84 | 64-78 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | -0.52 | -0.34 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.19 | 4.17 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.71 | 4.50 |
| Season OPS | 0.718 | 0.696 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 21.4% | 22.6% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.735 | 0.699 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Giants and Mets are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Giants | Mets |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 7.8/10, Tired | 6.4/10, Tired |
| Efficiency | 2.7/10, Struggling | 3.7/10, Below average |
| Combined risk | 9.0/10, High risk | 7.1/10, Tired |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 29.7 | 23.0 |
| Back-to-back arms | 4 | 4 |
| 7-day ERA | 6.67 | 6.26 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.82 | 1.35 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 5.6 runs above the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
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