MLB matchup analysis
Mets vs Rangers Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Tuesday, September 22, 2026 at Globe Life Field · 8:05 PM ET
Leo decision: Pass on Mets vs Rangers
The case for New York Mets
The case for Texas Rangers
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
The combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Final result
Mets 6, Rangers 3
How the analysis held up
New York Mets won, the side Leo's model favored.
Leo's two internal reads disagreed pregame by 43.8 points — the team-strength model favored New York Mets, the run-projection model favored Texas Rangers. The team-strength model had the winner here.
MacKenzie Gore (No clear pitching-plan edge), the starter Leo's pitcher score favored, actually outpitched Sean Manaea: 5.0 IP, 1 ER (1.80 ERA) against 6.0 IP, 2 ER (3.00 ERA). The edge held up.
The New York Mets bullpen was not flagged pregame, but it had a night worth noting: 0 earned runs allowed over 3.0 relief innings (0.00 ERA) — quietly better than the pregame read implied. Note: 1 of the runs charged to the New York Mets pitching staff overall was unearned — not something the bullpen's stuff should be blamed for.
The Texas Rangers bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (High risk). In relief it actually allowed 4 earned runs over 4.0 innings (9.00 ERA) — the risk read showed up. Note: 1 of the runs charged to the Texas Rangers pitching staff overall was unearned — not something the bullpen's stuff should be blamed for.
New York Mets scored 6, 3.2 more than the 2.8 pregame projection.
Texas Rangers scored 3, 3.8 fewer than the 6.8 pregame projection.
Game information
| Matchup | New York Mets at Texas Rangers |
|---|---|
| Date | Tuesday, September 22, 2026 |
| First pitch | 8:05 PM ET |
| Venue | Globe Life Field |
| Starting pitchers | Sean Manaea vs MacKenzie Gore |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 93°F, 0% precipitation chance, 7 mph wind from NE. This venue has a roof, but the roof status is not confirmed. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Mets | Rangers |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 5⅓ | 5 |
| Throws | L | L |
| Leo pitcher score (higher is better) | 60 | 59 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 4.71 | 4.64 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.32 | 1.35 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 8.7 | 9.2 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 15.5% | 14.1% |
| K% (higher is better) | 22.3% | 23.6% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 6.9% | 9.6% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 2.7 | 3.7 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| Ground-ball rate | 44.9% | 45.2% |
| Fly-ball rate | 55.1% | 54.8% |
Pitcher edge: Leo gives Sean Manaea a 1-point edge over MacKenzie Gore, driven mainly by BB/9 (2.7 vs 3.7) and expected innings (5.4 vs 5.1).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Mets are 3-7 in their last 10 and averaging 5.5 runs per game over the last 15 days; Rangers are 6-4 in their last 10 and averaging 4.8 runs per game over the last 15 days. Season run differential separates them by almost nothing (-0.24 against -0.24).
| Metric | Mets | Rangers |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 3-7 | 6-4 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 7-3 on the road | 5-5 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.773 | 0.705 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.341 | 0.316 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 5.5 | 4.8 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 19.4% | 27.3% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Mets | Rangers |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.725 (+0.021 vs szn) | 0.760 (+0.046 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 4.78 (+0.485 vs szn) | 5.19 (+1.007 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.320 (+0.009 vs szn) | 0.335 (+0.018 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 20.8% (-1.5% vs szn) | 23.2% |
Over the last 30 days the Rangers have been the better offense, 0.335 wOBA to 0.320. They are running hot against their own season line (+0.018 wOBA).
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Mets | Rangers |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 71-85 | 78-78 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | -0.24 | -0.24 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.29 | 4.18 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.54 | 4.41 |
| Season OPS | 0.703 | 0.717 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 22.3% | 23.0% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.682 | 0.767 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Mets and Rangers are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Mets | Rangers |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 6.7/10, Tired | 9.1/10, High risk |
| Efficiency | 6.1/10, Effective | 6.6/10, Effective |
| Combined risk | 6.2/10, Tired | 8.3/10, High risk |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 26.3 | 36.3 |
| Back-to-back arms | 5 | 6 |
| 7-day ERA | 3.08 | 2.48 |
| 7-day WHIP | 0.99 | 0.91 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 2.5 runs above the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
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