MLB matchup analysis
Phillies vs Mets Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Thursday, September 17, 2026 at Citi Field · 7:15 PM ET
Leo prediction: New York Mets moneyline
The case for New York Mets
The case for Philadelphia Phillies
What to watch
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
New York Mets is an official moneyline pick because it clears both gates: 67.7% model win probability and 7.4/10 Lab Rating. Leo projects 67.7% against a 54.1% no-vig market number, a 13.5% model edge at -124. New York Mets owns the starting pitcher edge by 13 points. Bullpen read: Elevated volatility. New York Mets's pen efficiency: Effective (6.5/10). Lineup check: New York Mets is swinging a hot bat (+0.095 OPS); Philadelphia Phillies is in a cold stretch (-0.052 OPS). Recent form supports this side and is included in the unified run projection.
Final result
Phillies 3, Mets 0
How the analysis held up
Philadelphia Phillies won. Leo's model favored the other side.
Nolan McLean (New York Mets) was Leo's favored starter by pitcher score, but Aaron Nola actually pitched better tonight: 7.0 IP, 0 ER (0.00 ERA) against 6.0 IP, 1 ER (1.50 ERA). The edge did not show up in this game.
The Philadelphia Phillies bullpen was not flagged pregame, but it had a night worth noting: 0 earned runs allowed over 2.0 relief innings (0.00 ERA) — quietly better than the pregame read implied.
The New York Mets bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (Tired). In relief it actually allowed 1 earned run over 3.0 innings (3.00 ERA) — the risk read did not show up on the scoreboard tonight. Note: 1 of the runs charged to the New York Mets pitching staff overall was unearned — not something the bullpen's stuff should be blamed for.
New York Mets scored 0, 4.7 fewer than the 4.7 pregame projection.
Likely driver: the opposing starter (0.00 ERA) was sharp when the read expected an edge the other way, and New York Mets's offense scored 4.7 fewer runs than projected.
Game information
| Matchup | Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets |
|---|---|
| Date | Thursday, September 17, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:15 PM ET |
| Venue | Citi Field |
| Starting pitchers | Aaron Nola vs Nolan McLean |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 78°F, 4% precipitation chance, 9 mph wind from S. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Phillies | Mets |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 5⅓ | 5⅔ |
| Throws | R | R |
| Leo pitcher score (higher is better) | 60 | 72 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 4.55 | 3.18 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.34 | 1.19 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 9.1 | 9.9 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 15.9% | 16.6% |
| K% (higher is better) | 24.0% | 26.2% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 8.1% | 9.6% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 3.1 | 3.6 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.8 | 0.9 |
| Ground-ball rate | 46.6% | 54.2% |
| Fly-ball rate | 53.4% | 45.8% |
Pitcher edge: Leo gives Nolan McLean a 12-point edge over Aaron Nola, driven mainly by HR/9 (0.89 vs 1.84) and ERA (3.18 vs 4.55).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Phillies are 4-6 in their last 10 and averaging 3.9 runs per game over the last 15 days; Mets are 5-5 in their last 10 and averaging 6.4 runs per game over the last 15 days. On the season Phillies carry the better run differential per game (+0.22 against -0.30).
| Metric | Phillies | Mets |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 4-6 | 5-5 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 6-4 on the road | 3-7 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.659 | 0.797 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.293 | 0.348 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 3.9 | 6.4 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 20.4% | 18.5% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Phillies | Mets |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.700 (-0.010 vs szn) | 0.722 (+0.021 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 4.44 (-0.026 vs szn) | 4.63 (+0.381 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.310 | 0.318 (+0.008 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 18.4% (-3.5% vs szn) | 20.9% (-1.5% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Mets have been the better offense, 0.318 wOBA to 0.310. They are running hot against their own season line (+0.008 wOBA).
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Phillies | Mets |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 84-68 | 69-83 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | +0.22 | -0.30 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.47 | 4.25 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.25 | 4.55 |
| Season OPS | 0.711 | 0.702 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 21.9% | 22.4% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.709 | 0.712 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Phillies and Mets are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Phillies | Mets |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 4.7/10, Normal | 7.7/10, Tired |
| Efficiency | 3.2/10, Below average | 6.5/10, Effective |
| Combined risk | 5.6/10, Normal | 7.0/10, Tired |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 19.0 | 21.7 |
| Back-to-back arms | 5 | 5 |
| 7-day ERA | 6.16 | 2.49 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.74 | 0.97 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model and market are close. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
More games today
All matchups →Every Leo pick, graded in public
Free daily model card by email, or open today's full slate. Membership adds delivery before first pitch.
Model outputs are not guarantees. Leo provides analysis and education only. Every official pick remains visible on the Results page. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.