MLB matchup analysis
Dodgers vs Marlins Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Sunday, September 13, 2026 at loanDepot park · 1:40 PM ET
Leo decision: Pass on Dodgers vs Marlins
The case for Miami Marlins
The case for Los Angeles Dodgers
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
The combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Final result
Dodgers 4, Marlins 6
How the analysis held up
Miami Marlins won, the side Leo's model favored.
Leo's two internal reads disagreed pregame by 35.5 points — the team-strength model favored Miami Marlins, the run-projection model favored Los Angeles Dodgers. The team-strength model had the winner here.
Emmet Sheehan (No clear pitching-plan edge), the starter Leo's pitcher score favored, actually outpitched Eury Pérez: 6.0 IP, 0 ER (0.00 ERA) against 5.0 IP, 3 ER (5.40 ERA). The edge held up.
The Los Angeles Dodgers bullpen was not flagged pregame, but it had a night worth noting: 6 earned runs allowed over 2.0 relief innings (27.00 ERA) — quietly worse than the pregame read implied.
The Miami Marlins bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (Tired). In relief it actually allowed 1 earned run over 4.0 innings (2.25 ERA) — the risk read did not show up on the scoreboard tonight.
Miami Marlins scored 6, 2.5 more than the 3.5 pregame projection.
Game information
| Matchup | Los Angeles Dodgers at Miami Marlins |
|---|---|
| Date | Sunday, September 13, 2026 |
| First pitch | 1:40 PM ET |
| Venue | loanDepot park |
| Starting pitchers | Emmet Sheehan vs Eury Pérez |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 81°F, 15% precipitation chance, 2 mph wind from NE. This venue has a roof, but the roof status is not confirmed. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Dodgers | Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 5 | 5⅓ |
| Throws | R | R |
| Leo pitcher score (higher is better) | 63 | 65 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 4.79 | 3.99 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.21 | 1.24 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 10.3 | 9.7 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 20.0% | 15.1% |
| K% (higher is better) | 27.1% | 25.7% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 7.0% | 10.6% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 2.7 | 4.0 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.8 | 1.1 |
| Ground-ball rate | 39.9% | 42.1% |
| Fly-ball rate | 60.1% | 57.9% |
Pitcher edge: Leo gives Eury Pérez a 2-point edge over Emmet Sheehan, driven mainly by HR/9 (1.12 vs 1.77) and expected innings (5.3 vs 4.9).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Dodgers are 8-2 in their last 10 and averaging 5.7 runs per game over the last 15 days; Marlins are 3-7 in their last 10 and averaging 5.4 runs per game over the last 15 days. On the season Dodgers carry the better run differential per game (+1.14 against +0.04).
| Metric | Dodgers | Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 8-2 | 3-7 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 4-6 on the road | 4-6 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.748 | 0.761 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.333 | 0.336 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 5.7 | 5.4 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 20.1% | 23.5% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Dodgers | Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.725 (-0.034 vs szn) | 0.723 |
| Runs per game | 4.85 (-0.121 vs szn) | 4.68 (+0.239 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.323 (-0.010 vs szn) | 0.322 |
| K% (lower is better) | 20.8% | 22.6% (+0.7% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Dodgers have been the better offense, 0.323 wOBA to 0.322. They are cooling off against their own season line (-0.010 wOBA).
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Dodgers | Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 90-58 | 73-76 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | +1.14 | +0.04 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.97 | 4.44 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 3.83 | 4.40 |
| Season OPS | 0.757 | 0.728 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 20.5% | 21.8% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.763 | 0.743 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Dodgers and Marlins are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Dodgers | Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 5.1/10, Normal | 8.0/10, Tired |
| Efficiency | 6.6/10, Effective | 4.8/10, Average |
| Combined risk | 4.3/10, Normal | 8.1/10, Tired |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 20.3 | 28.0 |
| Back-to-back arms | 5 | 7 |
| 7-day ERA | 1.77 | 4.50 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.23 | 1.29 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 5.1 runs above the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
More games today
All matchups →Every Leo pick, graded in public
Free daily model card by email, or open today's full slate. Membership adds delivery before first pitch.
Model outputs are not guarantees. Leo provides analysis and education only. Every official pick remains visible on the Results page. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.