MLB matchup analysis
Cubs vs Marlins Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Sunday, September 6, 2026 at loanDepot park · 1:40 PM ET
Leo prediction: Chicago Cubs moneyline
The case for Chicago Cubs
The case for Miami Marlins
What to watch
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
Chicago Cubs is an official moneyline pick because it clears both gates: 68.0% model win probability and 9.3/10 Lab Rating. Leo projects 68.0% against a 56.1% no-vig market number, a 11.9% model edge at -133. Chicago Cubs owns the starting pitcher edge by 12 points. Bullpen read: Elevated volatility. Chicago Cubs's pen efficiency: Below average (4.3/10). Lineup check: Chicago Cubs is swinging a hot bat (+0.131 OPS); Miami Marlins is a touch below its season form (-0.036 OPS). Recent form supports this side and is included in the unified run projection.
Final result
Cubs 3, Marlins 10
How the analysis held up
Miami Marlins won. Leo's model favored the other side.
Clay Holmes (Chicago Cubs) was Leo's favored starter by pitcher score, but Tyler Phillips actually pitched better tonight: 5.0 IP, 3 ER (5.40 ERA) against 4.1 IP, 8 ER (16.62 ERA). The edge did not show up in this game. Both starters struggled; this was not a case of one clean outing beating one bad one.
The Miami Marlins bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (Tired). In relief it actually allowed 0 earned runs over 4.0 innings (0.00 ERA) — the risk read did not show up on the scoreboard tonight.
Chicago Cubs scored 3, 4.2 fewer than the 7.2 pregame projection.
Miami Marlins scored 10, 5.6 more than the 4.4 pregame projection.
Likely driver: Clay Holmes, the pick's own starter, was rocked for a 16.62 ERA, and Miami Marlins's offense scored 5.6 more runs than projected.
Game information
| Matchup | Chicago Cubs at Miami Marlins |
|---|---|
| Date | Sunday, September 6, 2026 |
| First pitch | 1:40 PM ET |
| Venue | loanDepot park |
| Starting pitchers | Clay Holmes vs Tyler Phillips |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 81°F, 13% precipitation chance, 4 mph wind from S. This venue has a roof, but the roof status is not confirmed. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Cubs | Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 5⅔ | 4⅔ |
| Throws | R | R |
| Leo pitcher score (higher is better) | 73 | 65 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 2.83 | 3.51 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.12 | 1.33 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 6.8 | 7.3 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 10.0% | 9.2% |
| K% (higher is better) | 18.6% | 18.9% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 8.6% | 9.8% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 3.1 | 3.7 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 0.5 | 1.2 |
| Ground-ball rate | 64.9% | 52.7% |
| Fly-ball rate | 35.1% | 47.3% |
Pitcher edge: Leo gives Clay Holmes a 8-point edge over Tyler Phillips, driven mainly by expected innings (5.7 vs 4.6) and HR/9 (0.52 vs 1.17).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Cubs are 5-5 in their last 10 and averaging 7.4 runs per game over the last 15 days; Marlins are 4-6 in their last 10 and averaging 4.1 runs per game over the last 15 days. On the season Cubs carry the better run differential per game (+0.92 against +0.10).
| Metric | Cubs | Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 5-5 | 4-6 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 4-6 on the road | 5-5 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.903 | 0.687 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.391 | 0.307 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 7.4 | 4.1 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 17.5% | 21.8% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Cubs | Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.841 (+0.070 vs szn) | 0.717 (-0.008 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 6.18 (+0.845 vs szn) | 4.61 (+0.255 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.365 (+0.025 vs szn) | 0.321 |
| K% (lower is better) | 19.5% (-1.9% vs szn) | 22.3% (+0.6% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Cubs have been the better offense, 0.365 wOBA to 0.321. They are running hot against their own season line (+0.025 wOBA).
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Cubs | Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 81-62 | 71-72 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | +0.92 | +0.10 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 5.33 | 4.38 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.42 | 4.28 |
| Season OPS | 0.772 | 0.723 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 21.4% | 21.8% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.757 | 0.737 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Cubs and Marlins are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Cubs | Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 6.4/10, Tired | 6.7/10, Tired |
| Efficiency | 4.3/10, Below average | 3.3/10, Below average |
| Combined risk | 6.8/10, Tired | 7.6/10, Tired |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 25.3 | 26.7 |
| Back-to-back arms | 5 | 7 |
| 7-day ERA | 5.33 | 6.08 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.34 | 1.69 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 1.0 runs below the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
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