MLB matchup analysis
Marlins vs Cubs Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Tuesday, September 22, 2026 at Wrigley Field · 7:40 PM ET
Leo prediction: Chicago Cubs moneyline
The case for Chicago Cubs
The case for Miami Marlins
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
Chicago Cubs is an official moneyline pick because it clears both gates: 70.1% model win probability and 7.5/10 Lab Rating. Leo projects 70.1% against a 61.3% no-vig market number, a 8.8% model edge at -165. Chicago Cubs owns the starting pitcher edge by 12 points. Bullpen read: Supports Leo side. Chicago Cubs's pen efficiency: Average (5.1/10). Lineup check: Chicago Cubs is near its season form (+0.018 OPS); Miami Marlins is a touch above its season form (+0.022 OPS).
Final result
Marlins 8, Cubs 2
How the analysis held up
Miami Marlins won. Leo's model favored the other side.
Shota Imanaga (Chicago Cubs) was Leo's favored starter by pitcher score, but Janson Junk actually pitched better tonight: 5.0 IP, 0 ER (0.00 ERA) against 5.0 IP, 1 ER (1.80 ERA). The edge did not show up in this game.
The Miami Marlins bullpen was not flagged pregame, but it had a night worth noting: 1 earned run allowed over 7.0 relief innings (1.29 ERA) — quietly better than the pregame read implied. Note: 1 of the runs charged to the Miami Marlins pitching staff overall was unearned — not something the bullpen's stuff should be blamed for.
The Chicago Cubs bullpen was not flagged pregame, but it had a night worth noting: 6 earned runs allowed over 7.0 relief innings (7.71 ERA) — quietly worse than the pregame read implied. Note: 1 of the runs charged to the Chicago Cubs pitching staff overall was unearned — not something the bullpen's stuff should be blamed for.
Miami Marlins scored 8 in a game that went 12 innings — not compared against the 4.2 pregame projection, which assumed nine.
Chicago Cubs scored 2 in a game that went 12 innings — not compared against the 6.6 pregame projection, which assumed nine.
Likely driver: the opposing starter (0.00 ERA) was sharp when the read expected an edge the other way, and the Chicago Cubs bullpen allowed 6 earned runs over 7.0 relief innings (7.71 ERA), which was not flagged pregame but showed up anyway.
Game information
| Matchup | Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubs |
|---|---|
| Date | Tuesday, September 22, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:40 PM ET |
| Venue | Wrigley Field |
| Starting pitchers | Janson Junk vs Shota Imanaga |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 60°F, 0% precipitation chance, 12 mph wind from NE. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Marlins | Cubs |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 5 | 5⅔ |
| Throws | R | L |
| Leo pitcher score (higher is better) | 60 | 72 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 4.37 | 3.76 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.32 | 1.10 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 6.3 | 8.9 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 10.0% | 19.0% |
| K% (higher is better) | 16.4% | 24.3% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 6.4% | 5.3% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 2.5 | 1.9 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.1 | 1.8 |
| Ground-ball rate | 47.9% | 41.3% |
| Fly-ball rate | 52.1% | 58.7% |
Pitcher edge: Leo gives Shota Imanaga a 12-point edge over Janson Junk, driven mainly by K-BB% (19.0% vs 10.0%) and K/9 (8.9 vs 6.3).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Marlins are 4-6 in their last 10 and averaging 5.1 runs per game over the last 15 days; Cubs are 6-4 in their last 10 and averaging 5.6 runs per game over the last 15 days. On the season Cubs carry the better run differential per game (+0.93 against +0.02).
| Metric | Marlins | Cubs |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 4-6 | 6-4 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 5-5 on the road | 5-5 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.749 | 0.790 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.328 | 0.347 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 5.1 | 5.6 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 24.9% | 18.6% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Marlins | Cubs |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.721 (-0.006 vs szn) | 0.831 (+0.062 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 4.93 (+0.467 vs szn) | 6.37 (+1.039 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.319 | 0.362 (+0.023 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 23.5% (+1.4% vs szn) | 17.6% (-3.6% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Cubs have been the better offense, 0.362 wOBA to 0.319. They are running hot against their own season line (+0.023 wOBA).
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Marlins | Cubs |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 76-80 | 87-69 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | +0.02 | +0.93 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.46 | 5.33 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.44 | 4.40 |
| Season OPS | 0.727 | 0.772 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 22.0% | 21.2% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.690 | 0.764 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Marlins and Cubs are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Marlins | Cubs |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 6.2/10, Tired | 4.7/10, Normal |
| Efficiency | 4.5/10, Average | 5.1/10, Average |
| Combined risk | 6.5/10, Tired | 4.7/10, Normal |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 23.7 | 16.0 |
| Back-to-back arms | 7 | 3 |
| 7-day ERA | 4.94 | 3.94 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.31 | 1.31 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 3.9 runs above the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
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