MLB matchup analysis
Braves vs Marlins Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Sunday, September 27, 2026 at loanDepot park · 3:10 PM ET
Leo decision: Pass on Braves vs Marlins
The case for Miami Marlins
The case for Atlanta Braves
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
The combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Final result
Braves 3, Marlins 5
How the analysis held up
Miami Marlins won, the side Leo's model favored.
Janson Junk (Miami Marlins), the starter Leo's pitcher score favored, actually outpitched JR Ritchie: 4.2 IP, 1 ER (1.93 ERA) against 5.2 IP, 4 ER (6.35 ERA). The edge held up.
The Atlanta Braves bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (Tired). In relief it actually allowed 1 earned run over 2.1 innings (3.86 ERA) — the risk read did not show up on the scoreboard tonight.
The Miami Marlins bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (Tired). In relief it actually allowed 2 earned runs over 4.1 innings (4.15 ERA) — the risk read did not show up on the scoreboard tonight.
Game information
| Matchup | Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins |
|---|---|
| Date | Sunday, September 27, 2026 |
| First pitch | 3:10 PM ET |
| Venue | loanDepot park |
| Starting pitchers | JR Ritchie vs Janson Junk |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 79°F, 3% precipitation chance, 3 mph wind from NE. This venue has a roof, but the roof status is not confirmed. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Braves | Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 5 | 5 |
| Throws | R | R |
| Leo pitcher score (higher is better) | 50 | 62 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 4.91 | 4.22 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.47 | 1.29 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 8.3 | 6.5 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 7.7% | 10.7% |
| K% (higher is better) | 20.9% | 17.0% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 13.2% | 6.3% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 5.3 | 2.4 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.6 | 1.1 |
| Ground-ball rate | 52.1% | 47.6% |
| Fly-ball rate | 47.9% | 52.4% |
Pitcher edge: Leo gives Janson Junk a 12-point edge over JR Ritchie, driven mainly by BB/9 (2.4 vs 5.3) and HR/9 (1.09 vs 1.60).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Braves are 6-4 in their last 10 and averaging 4.8 runs per game over the last 15 days; Marlins are 5-5 in their last 10 and averaging 4.2 runs per game over the last 15 days. On the season Braves carry the better run differential per game (+0.72 against +0.02).
| Metric | Braves | Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 6-4 | 5-5 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 5-5 on the road | 5-5 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.742 | 0.710 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.326 | 0.314 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 4.8 | 4.2 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 21.8% | 22.1% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Braves | Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.696 (-0.022 vs szn) | 0.732 (+0.006 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 4.18 (-0.402 vs szn) | 4.75 (+0.336 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.307 (-0.009 vs szn) | 0.323 |
| K% (lower is better) | 21.4% | 22.5% (+0.6% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Marlins have been the better offense, 0.323 wOBA to 0.307.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Braves | Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 94-67 | 79-82 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | +0.72 | +0.02 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.58 | 4.41 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 3.86 | 4.40 |
| Season OPS | 0.720 | 0.726 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 21.6% | 21.8% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.732 | 0.742 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Braves and Marlins are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Braves | Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 7.2/10, Tired | 7.9/10, Tired |
| Efficiency | 5.4/10, Average | 4.9/10, Average |
| Combined risk | 7.0/10, Tired | 8.0/10, Tired |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 28.0 | 25.7 |
| Back-to-back arms | 3 | 6 |
| 7-day ERA | 4.18 | 4.56 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.07 | 1.21 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model and market are close. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
More games today
All matchups →Every Leo pick, graded in public
Free daily model card by email, or open today's full slate. Membership adds delivery before first pitch.
Model outputs are not guarantees. Leo provides analysis and education only. Every official pick remains visible on the Results page. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.