MLB matchup analysis
Dodgers vs Marlins Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Friday, September 11, 2026 at loanDepot park · 7:10 PM ET
Leo decision: Pass on Dodgers vs Marlins
The case for Miami Marlins
The case for Los Angeles Dodgers
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
This is a bullpen game -- no confirmed traditional starter, so Leo does not publish an official pick here.
Final result
Dodgers 6, Marlins 2
How the analysis held up
Los Angeles Dodgers won. Leo's model favored the other side.
Leo's two internal reads disagreed pregame by 26.2 points — the team-strength model favored Miami Marlins, the run-projection model favored Los Angeles Dodgers. The run-projection model had the winner here.
Blake Snell (Los Angeles Dodgers), the starter Leo's pitcher score favored, actually outpitched Ryan Gusto: 5.2 IP, 1 ER (1.59 ERA) against 6.0 IP, 2 ER (3.00 ERA). The edge held up.
The Miami Marlins bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (High risk). In relief it actually allowed 4 earned runs over 3.0 innings (12.00 ERA) — the risk read showed up.
Miami Marlins scored 2, 2.3 fewer than the 4.3 pregame projection.
Likely driver: the Miami Marlins bullpen allowed 4 earned runs over 3.0 relief innings (12.00 ERA), which is exactly the risk flagged pregame, and the opposing starter (1.59 ERA) was sharp when the read expected an edge the other way.
Game information
| Matchup | Los Angeles Dodgers at Miami Marlins |
|---|---|
| Date | Friday, September 11, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:10 PM ET |
| Venue | loanDepot park |
| Starting pitchers | Blake Snell vs Ryan Gusto |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 83°F, 11% precipitation chance, 2 mph wind from E. This venue has a roof, but the roof status is not confirmed. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Dodgers | Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Limited starter |
| Expected innings | 5⅓ | 4⅓ |
| Throws | L | R |
| Leo pitcher score (higher is better) | 77 | 60 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 1.70 | 4.07 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.08 | 1.40 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 12.2 | 7.6 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 22.5% | 11.7% |
| K% (higher is better) | 33.1% | 19.0% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 10.6% | 7.3% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 3.9 | 2.9 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 0.0 | 1.0 |
| Ground-ball rate | 46.7% | 48.2% |
| Fly-ball rate | 53.3% | 51.8% |
Pitcher edge: Leo gives Blake Snell a 17-point edge over Ryan Gusto, driven mainly by K/9 (12.2 vs 7.6) and K-BB% (22.5% vs 11.7%).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Dodgers are 8-2 in their last 10 and averaging 5.2 runs per game over the last 15 days; Marlins are 3-7 in their last 10 and averaging 5.5 runs per game over the last 15 days. On the season Dodgers carry the better run differential per game (+1.18 against +0.02).
| Metric | Dodgers | Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 8-2 | 3-7 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 6-4 on the road | 2-8 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.734 | 0.754 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.330 | 0.334 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 5.2 | 5.5 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 21.5% | 22.8% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Dodgers | Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.727 (-0.032 vs szn) | 0.721 (-0.007 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 4.89 (-0.104 vs szn) | 4.64 (+0.210 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.323 (-0.011 vs szn) | 0.321 |
| K% (lower is better) | 21.4% (+0.8% vs szn) | 22.4% (+0.6% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Dodgers have been the better offense, 0.323 wOBA to 0.321. They are cooling off against their own season line (-0.011 wOBA).
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Dodgers | Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 89-57 | 72-75 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | +1.18 | +0.02 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.99 | 4.43 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 3.82 | 4.41 |
| Season OPS | 0.759 | 0.728 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 20.6% | 21.8% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.764 | Not available |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Dodgers and Marlins are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Dodgers | Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 4.7/10, Normal | 8.3/10, High risk |
| Efficiency | 5.9/10, Effective | 4.2/10, Below average |
| Combined risk | 4.3/10, Normal | 8.7/10, High risk |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 19.0 | 28.0 |
| Back-to-back arms | 6 | 7 |
| 7-day ERA | 2.84 | 4.82 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.21 | 1.61 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 1.3 runs above the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
More games today
All matchups →Every Leo pick, graded in public
Free daily model card by email, or open today's full slate. Membership adds delivery before first pitch.
Model outputs are not guarantees. Leo provides analysis and education only. Every official pick remains visible on the Results page. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.