MLB matchup analysis
Marlins vs Cubs Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Wednesday, September 23, 2026 at Wrigley Field · 7:40 PM ET
Leo decision: Pass on Marlins vs Cubs
The case for Chicago Cubs
The case for Miami Marlins
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
The combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Final result
Marlins 3, Cubs 2
How the analysis held up
Miami Marlins won. Leo's model favored the other side.
Kevin Gausman (Chicago Cubs), the starter Leo's pitcher score favored, actually outpitched Ryan Gusto: 5.2 IP, 2 ER (3.18 ERA) against 5.1 IP, 2 ER (3.38 ERA). The edge held up.
The Miami Marlins bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (Tired). In relief it actually allowed 0 earned runs over 3.2 innings (0.00 ERA) — the risk read did not show up on the scoreboard tonight.
Miami Marlins scored 3, 1.6 fewer than the 4.6 pregame projection.
Chicago Cubs scored 2, 4.3 fewer than the 6.3 pregame projection.
Likely driver: Chicago Cubs's offense scored 4.3 fewer runs than projected, and the Miami Marlins bullpen quietly shut the game down (0.00 ERA over 3.2 innings).
Game information
| Matchup | Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubs |
|---|---|
| Date | Wednesday, September 23, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:40 PM ET |
| Venue | Wrigley Field |
| Starting pitchers | Ryan Gusto vs Kevin Gausman |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 62°F, 0% precipitation chance, 8 mph wind from NE. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Marlins | Cubs |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Limited starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 4⅓ | 5⅔ |
| Throws | R | R |
| Leo pitcher score (higher is better) | 60 | 64 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 3.95 | 4.42 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.43 | 1.25 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 7.5 | 9.4 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 11.7% | 18.5% |
| K% (higher is better) | 18.7% | 24.7% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 7.0% | 6.2% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 2.8 | 2.3 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| Ground-ball rate | 48.4% | 47.9% |
| Fly-ball rate | 51.6% | 52.1% |
Pitcher edge: Leo gives Kevin Gausman a 4-point edge over Ryan Gusto, driven mainly by expected innings (5.5 vs 4.3) and K-BB% (18.5% vs 11.7%).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Marlins are 5-5 in their last 10 and averaging 5.4 runs per game over the last 15 days; Cubs are 6-4 in their last 10 and averaging 5.5 runs per game over the last 15 days. On the season Cubs carry the better run differential per game (+0.92 against +0.03).
| Metric | Marlins | Cubs |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 5-5 | 6-4 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 5-5 on the road | 5-5 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.748 | 0.763 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.328 | 0.335 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 5.4 | 5.5 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 24.5% | 19.3% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Marlins | Cubs |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.721 (-0.006 vs szn) | 0.803 (+0.034 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 4.81 (+0.365 vs szn) | 5.74 (+0.431 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.319 | 0.351 (+0.012 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 23.7% (+1.6% vs szn) | 18.0% (-3.1% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Cubs have been the better offense, 0.351 wOBA to 0.319. They are running hot against their own season line (+0.012 wOBA).
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Marlins | Cubs |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 77-80 | 87-70 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | +0.03 | +0.92 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.45 | 5.31 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.42 | 4.39 |
| Season OPS | 0.727 | 0.769 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 22.0% | 21.2% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.741 | 0.760 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Marlins and Cubs are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Marlins | Cubs |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 7.4/10, Tired | 6.4/10, Tired |
| Efficiency | 4.0/10, Below average | 5.2/10, Average |
| Combined risk | 7.9/10, Tired | 6.3/10, Tired |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 22.7 | 19.7 |
| Back-to-back arms | 6 | 3 |
| 7-day ERA | 5.56 | 4.12 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.41 | 1.22 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 2.8 runs above the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
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