Leo daily card
MLB Picks | Saturday, September 26, 2026
One authoritative page for every official pick, research setup, and pass. Each decision includes the model probability, matchup evidence, risk, and author.
GAMES
13
OFFICIAL PICKS
11
across all markets
VALUE WATCH
0
WATCHLIST
2
PASSES
11
Updated Sep 26, 8:52 PM EDT. Official picks are published before grading.
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Members get official picks first, value watch setups second, and clear pass reasons for the rest of the card.
Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Francisco Giants
- Leo side
- Los Angeles Dodgers Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 8.7/10
- Model probability
- 59.4%
- Market probability
- 71.0%
- Model vs market
- -11.6%
- Current price
- -270
- Pitcher edge
- No clear SP edge by 3 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Los Angeles Dodgers is 6.5/10 and San Francisco Giants is 6.0/10.
Why Leo made this decisionLos Angeles Dodgers is worth monitoring, but it does not clear every requirement for an official pick. Leo projects 59.4% win probability, the market is at 71.0%, and the setup carries a 8.7/10 Lab Rating. The starting pitching matchup does not create a clear advantage. No meaningful bullpen risk edge — both pens come in comparable (Los Angeles Dodgers 5.1/10, San Francisco Giants 5.7/10). Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 9.0 points from 68.5% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 59.4%.
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
Cincinnati Reds @ Toronto Blue Jays
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Trey Yesavage Over 3.5 -122
- Leo side
- Toronto Blue Jays Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 6.7/10
- Model probability
- 71.8%
- Market probability
- 60.0%
- Model vs market
- +11.8%
- Current price
- -162
- Pitcher edge
- Toronto Blue Jays by 24 points
- Bullpen read
- Toronto Blue Jays carries the heavier bullpen workload, 7.6/10 versus 5.8/10, which adds late-game risk. Toronto Blue Jays has used 29.0 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 6 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionToronto Blue Jays is worth monitoring, but it does not clear every requirement for an official pick. Leo projects 71.8% win probability, the market is at 60.0%, and the setup carries a 6.7/10 Lab Rating. Toronto Blue Jays has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 24 rating points. Bullpen risk is elevated but not decisive. Toronto Blue Jays is 6.7/10 and Cincinnati Reds is 5.9/10. Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 21.9 points from 93.7% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 71.8%.
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
St. Louis Cardinals @ Milwaukee Brewers
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Quinn Mathews Over 4.5 -105
Pitcher Ks: Dustin May Over 2.5 -152
- Leo side
- Milwaukee Brewers Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 6.3/10
- Model probability
- 57.6%
- Market probability
- 67.2%
- Model vs market
- -9.6%
- Current price
- -220
- Pitcher edge
- No clear SP edge by 1 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Milwaukee Brewers is 7.2/10 and St. Louis Cardinals is 8.0/10.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Tampa Bay Rays @ Philadelphia Phillies
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Aaron Nola Over 2.5 +115
- Leo side
- Tampa Bay Rays Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 6.1/10
- Model probability
- 66.7%
- Market probability
- 45.7%
- Model vs market
- +21.1%
- Current price
- +113
- Pitcher edge
- Tampa Bay Rays by 10 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Tampa Bay Rays is 6.6/10 and Philadelphia Phillies is 5.5/10.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Detroit Tigers
- Leo side
- Detroit Tigers Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 6.0/10
- Model probability
- 55.0%
- Market probability
- 52.4%
- Model vs market
- +2.6%
- Current price
- -103
- Pitcher edge
- No clear SP edge by 2 points
- Bullpen read
- Detroit Tigers has the fresher bullpen, 6.3/10 versus 7.9/10. Pittsburgh Pirates has used 33.0 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 7 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionBullpen game impact
Pittsburgh Pirates is using a bullpen game. Kirby Yates is expected to cover about 1.7 innings, leaving roughly 7.3 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 7.6/10 risk with 5.7/10 recent efficiency. That heavy bullpen exposure strengthens the case for Detroit Tigers. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 4.6/10 for Detroit Tigers versus 5.7/10 for Pittsburgh Pirates.
This is a bullpen game -- no confirmed traditional starter, so Leo does not publish an official pick here.
Pittsburgh Pirates is using a bullpen game. Kirby Yates is expected to cover about 1.7 innings, leaving roughly 7.3 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 7.6/10 risk with 5.7/10 recent efficiency. That heavy bullpen exposure strengthens the case for Detroit Tigers. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 4.6/10 for Detroit Tigers versus 5.7/10 for Pittsburgh Pirates.
This is a bullpen game -- no confirmed traditional starter, so Leo does not publish an official pick here.
Pass reasonThis is a bullpen game -- no confirmed traditional starter, so Leo does not publish an official pick here.
Los Angeles Angels @ Seattle Mariners
- Leo side
- Seattle Mariners Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 5.7/10
- Model probability
- 60.5%
- Market probability
- 62.5%
- Model vs market
- -2.1%
- Current price
- -175
- Pitcher edge
- Seattle Mariners by 7 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Seattle Mariners is 6.8/10 and Los Angeles Angels is 7.0/10.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Houston Astros @ Athletics
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Hayden Wesneski Over 3.5 -164
Pitcher Ks: Jack Perkins Over 4.5 +100
- Leo side
- Houston Astros Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 5.5/10
- Model probability
- 73.2%
- Market probability
- 59.9%
- Model vs market
- +13.2%
- Current price
- -158
- Pitcher edge
- Houston Astros by 18 points
- Bullpen read
- Houston Astros carries the heavier bullpen workload, 9.6/10 versus 7.4/10, which adds late-game risk. Houston Astros has used 32.3 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 5 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Cleveland Guardians @ Kansas City Royals
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Michael Wacha Over 3.5 -148
- Leo side
- Kansas City Royals Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 5.4/10
- Model probability
- 60.3%
- Market probability
- 49.2%
- Model vs market
- +11.1%
- Current price
- +102
- Pitcher edge
- Kansas City Royals by 9 points
- Bullpen read
- Both bullpens are heavily taxed. Kansas City Royals is 8.9/10 and Cleveland Guardians is 10.0/10, so late-game volatility is elevated on both sides.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Colorado Rockies @ Chicago White Sox
- Leo side
- Chicago White Sox Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 5.4/10
- Model probability
- 73.1%
- Market probability
- 66.0%
- Model vs market
- +7.1%
- Current price
- -210
- Pitcher edge
- Chicago White Sox by 21 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Chicago White Sox is 6.7/10 and Colorado Rockies is 6.5/10.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
New York Mets @ Washington Nationals
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Connelly Early Over 3.5 +130
Pitcher Ks: Jonah Tong Over 4.5 +101
- Leo side
- Washington Nationals Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 5.1/10
- Model probability
- 68.0%
- Market probability
- 50.2%
- Model vs market
- +17.8%
- Current price
- -106
- Pitcher edge
- Washington Nationals by 11 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Washington Nationals is 8.3/10 and New York Mets is 7.6/10.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins
- Leo side
- Atlanta Braves Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 5.0/10
- Model probability
- 63.7%
- Market probability
- 51.9%
- Model vs market
- +11.8%
- Current price
- -115
- Pitcher edge
- Atlanta Braves by 9 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Atlanta Braves is 6.5/10 and Miami Marlins is 5.8/10.
Why Leo made this decisionBullpen game impact
Atlanta Braves is using a bullpen game. Brent Suter is expected to cover about 2.2 innings, leaving roughly 6.8 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 6.2/10 risk with 5.6/10 recent efficiency. Because this is Leo's side, bullpen quality is central to the pick. Miami Marlins is using a bullpen game. Jack Ralston is expected to cover about 1.3 innings, leaving roughly 7.7 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 5.3/10 risk with 6.1/10 recent efficiency. That heavy bullpen exposure strengthens the case for Atlanta Braves. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 5.6/10 for Atlanta Braves versus 6.1/10 for Miami Marlins.
This is a bullpen game -- no confirmed traditional starter, so Leo does not publish an official pick here.
Atlanta Braves is using a bullpen game. Brent Suter is expected to cover about 2.2 innings, leaving roughly 6.8 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 6.2/10 risk with 5.6/10 recent efficiency. Because this is Leo's side, bullpen quality is central to the pick. Miami Marlins is using a bullpen game. Jack Ralston is expected to cover about 1.3 innings, leaving roughly 7.7 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 5.3/10 risk with 6.1/10 recent efficiency. That heavy bullpen exposure strengthens the case for Atlanta Braves. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 5.6/10 for Atlanta Braves versus 6.1/10 for Miami Marlins.
This is a bullpen game -- no confirmed traditional starter, so Leo does not publish an official pick here.
Pass reasonThis is a bullpen game -- no confirmed traditional starter, so Leo does not publish an official pick here.
Texas Rangers @ Minnesota Twins
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Nathan Eovaldi Over 3.5 +102
Pitcher Ks: Bailey Ober Over 4.5 +112
- Leo side
- Texas Rangers Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 4.7/10
- Model probability
- 54.0%
- Market probability
- 53.4%
- Model vs market
- +0.6%
- Current price
- -118
- Pitcher edge
- No clear SP edge by 3 points
- Bullpen read
- Texas Rangers carries the heavier bullpen workload, 8.3/10 versus 5.8/10, which adds late-game risk. Texas Rangers has used 30.3 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 7 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres
- Leo side
- San Diego Padres Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 4.2/10
- Model probability
- 66.1%
- Market probability
- 53.0%
- Model vs market
- +13.1%
- Current price
- -117
- Pitcher edge
- San Diego Padres by 9 points
- Bullpen read
- San Diego Padres carries the heavier bullpen workload, 9.5/10 versus 4.9/10, which adds late-game risk. San Diego Padres has used 28.3 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 8 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionBullpen game impact
Arizona Diamondbacks is using a bullpen game. Taylor Clarke is expected to cover about 1.0 innings, leaving roughly 8.0 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 4.6/10 risk with 5.6/10 recent efficiency. That heavy bullpen exposure strengthens the case for San Diego Padres. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 6.0/10 for San Diego Padres versus 5.6/10 for Arizona Diamondbacks.
This is a bullpen game -- no confirmed traditional starter, so Leo does not publish an official pick here.
Arizona Diamondbacks is using a bullpen game. Taylor Clarke is expected to cover about 1.0 innings, leaving roughly 8.0 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 4.6/10 risk with 5.6/10 recent efficiency. That heavy bullpen exposure strengthens the case for San Diego Padres. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 6.0/10 for San Diego Padres versus 5.6/10 for Arizona Diamondbacks.
This is a bullpen game -- no confirmed traditional starter, so Leo does not publish an official pick here.
Pass reasonThis is a bullpen game -- no confirmed traditional starter, so Leo does not publish an official pick here.
Model outputs, not promises. Leo provides analysis and education only, not betting advice. Every official pick is graded on the Results page.