MLB matchup analysis
Reds vs Blue Jays Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Saturday, September 26, 2026 at Rogers Centre · 3:07 PM ET
Leo prediction: Toronto Blue Jays moneyline
The case for Toronto Blue Jays
The case for Cincinnati Reds
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
Toronto Blue Jays remains on the watchlist. Lab Rating 6.7/10: conviction 8.4, pitching plan 24, offense 34.92. Leo projects 71.8% against a 60.0% no-vig market number, a 11.8% model edge at -162. Toronto Blue Jays owns the starting pitcher edge by 24 points. Bullpen read: Elevated volatility. Toronto Blue Jays's pen efficiency: Effective (6.8/10). Lineup check: Toronto Blue Jays is near its season form (+0.012 OPS); Cincinnati Reds is in a cold stretch (-0.062 OPS). Recent form supports this side and is included in the unified run projection.
Final result
Reds 5, Blue Jays 1
How the analysis held up
Cincinnati Reds won. Leo's model favored the other side.
Trey Yesavage (Toronto Blue Jays) was Leo's favored starter by pitcher score, but Rhett Lowder actually pitched better tonight: 6.0 IP, 0 ER (0.00 ERA) against 2.0 IP, 1 ER (4.50 ERA). The edge did not show up in this game.
The Toronto Blue Jays bullpen was not flagged pregame, but it had a night worth noting: 1 earned run allowed over 7.0 relief innings (1.29 ERA) — quietly better than the pregame read implied. Note: 3 of the runs charged to the Toronto Blue Jays pitching staff overall were unearned — not something the bullpen's stuff should be blamed for.
Toronto Blue Jays scored 1, 3.4 fewer than the 4.4 pregame projection.
Likely driver: the opposing starter (0.00 ERA) was sharp when the read expected an edge the other way, and Toronto Blue Jays's offense scored 3.4 fewer runs than projected.
Game information
| Matchup | Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jays |
|---|---|
| Date | Saturday, September 26, 2026 |
| First pitch | 3:07 PM ET |
| Venue | Rogers Centre |
| Starting pitchers | Rhett Lowder vs Trey Yesavage |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 64°F, 0% precipitation chance, 6 mph wind from N. This venue has a roof, but the roof status is not confirmed. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Reds | Blue Jays |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 5 | 5 |
| Throws | R | R |
| Leo pitcher score (higher is better) | 46 | 68 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 5.74 | 3.69 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.52 | 1.14 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 7.0 | 8.9 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 7.8% | 12.5% |
| K% (higher is better) | 17.1% | 24.2% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 9.3% | 11.7% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 3.8 | 4.3 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| Ground-ball rate | 47.1% | 36.6% |
| Fly-ball rate | 52.9% | 63.4% |
Pitcher edge: Leo gives Trey Yesavage a 22-point edge over Rhett Lowder, driven mainly by WHIP (1.14 vs 1.52) and ERA (3.69 vs 5.74).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Reds are 4-6 in their last 10 and averaging 3.5 runs per game over the last 15 days; Blue Jays are 3-7 in their last 10 and averaging 4.1 runs per game over the last 15 days. On the season Blue Jays carry the better run differential per game (-0.31 against -0.97).
| Metric | Reds | Blue Jays |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 4-6 | 3-7 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 4-6 on the road | 6-4 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.638 | 0.705 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.281 | 0.316 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 3.5 | 4.1 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 26.4% | 16.7% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Reds | Blue Jays |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.710 (+0.010 vs szn) | 0.723 (+0.032 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 4.33 (+0.203 vs szn) | 4.30 (+0.303 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.312 | 0.322 (+0.016 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 26.7% (+1.2% vs szn) | 16.4% (-2.5% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Blue Jays have been the better offense, 0.322 wOBA to 0.312. They are running hot against their own season line (+0.016 wOBA). Reds are striking out at 26.7% over the window — something the opposing starter can lean on.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Reds | Blue Jays |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 74-86 | 78-82 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | -0.97 | -0.31 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.13 | 3.99 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 5.10 | 4.30 |
| Season OPS | 0.700 | 0.693 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 25.6% | 19.0% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.693 | 0.707 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Reds and Blue Jays are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Reds | Blue Jays |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 5.8/10, Normal | 7.6/10, Tired |
| Efficiency | 4.9/10, Average | 6.8/10, Effective |
| Combined risk | 5.9/10, Normal | 6.7/10, Tired |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 22.3 | 29.0 |
| Back-to-back arms | 4 | 6 |
| 7-day ERA | 4.03 | 1.86 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.43 | 1.03 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model and market are close. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
More games today
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