MLB matchup analysis
Rockies vs White Sox Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Saturday, September 26, 2026 at Rate Field · 7:10 PM ET
Leo decision: Pass on Rockies vs White Sox
The case for Chicago White Sox
The case for Colorado Rockies
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
The combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Final result
Rockies 9, White Sox 6
How the analysis held up
Colorado Rockies won. Leo's model favored the other side.
Davis Martin (Chicago White Sox) was Leo's favored starter by pitcher score, but Jose Quintana actually pitched better tonight: 3.0 IP, 2 ER (6.00 ERA) against 0.2 IP, 2 ER (27.00 ERA). The edge did not show up in this game. Both starters struggled; this was not a case of one clean outing beating one bad one.
The Chicago White Sox bullpen was not flagged pregame, but it had a night worth noting: 6 earned runs allowed over 8.1 relief innings (6.48 ERA) — quietly worse than the pregame read implied. Note: 1 of the runs charged to the Chicago White Sox pitching staff overall was unearned — not something the bullpen's stuff should be blamed for.
Colorado Rockies scored 9, 6 more than the 3 pregame projection.
Chicago White Sox scored 6, 1.6 more than the 4.4 pregame projection.
Likely driver: Davis Martin, the pick's own starter, was rocked for a 27.00 ERA, and Colorado Rockies's offense scored 6 more runs than projected.
Game information
| Matchup | Colorado Rockies at Chicago White Sox |
|---|---|
| Date | Saturday, September 26, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:10 PM ET |
| Venue | Rate Field |
| Starting pitchers | Jose Quintana vs Davis Martin |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 58°F, 0% precipitation chance, 5 mph wind from NE. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Rockies | White Sox |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Limited starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 4⅓ | 5 |
| Throws | L | R |
| Leo pitcher score (higher is better) | 44 | 63 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 5.44 | 3.95 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.50 | 1.32 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 4.7 | 7.5 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 2.4% | 12.3% |
| K% (higher is better) | 11.8% | 19.8% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 9.4% | 7.5% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 3.8 | 2.8 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.9 | 0.9 |
| Ground-ball rate | 41.2% | 48.5% |
| Fly-ball rate | 58.8% | 51.5% |
Pitcher edge: Leo gives Davis Martin a 19-point edge over Jose Quintana, driven mainly by HR/9 (0.86 vs 1.88) and K-BB% (12.3% vs 2.4%).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Rockies are 2-8 in their last 10 and averaging 3.9 runs per game over the last 15 days; White Sox are 6-4 in their last 10 and averaging 5.8 runs per game over the last 15 days. On the season White Sox carry the better run differential per game (+0.34 against -1.18).
| Metric | Rockies | White Sox |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 2-8 | 6-4 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 1-9 on the road | 5-5 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.744 | 0.752 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.327 | 0.336 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 3.9 | 5.8 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 20.6% | 25.3% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Rockies | White Sox |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.731 (-0.008 vs szn) | 0.697 (-0.029 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 4.07 (-0.587 vs szn) | 4.68 (-0.116 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.321 | 0.313 (-0.008 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 23.1% | 25.5% (+1.3% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Rockies have been the better offense, 0.321 wOBA to 0.313. White Sox are striking out at 25.5% over the window — something the opposing starter can lean on.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Rockies | White Sox |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 57-103 | 83-77 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | -1.18 | +0.34 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.66 | 4.80 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 5.84 | 4.46 |
| Season OPS | 0.738 | 0.725 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 22.8% | 24.2% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.752 | 0.745 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Rockies and White Sox are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Rockies | White Sox |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 6.5/10, Tired | 6.7/10, Tired |
| Efficiency | 6.1/10, Effective | 5.2/10, Average |
| Combined risk | 6.0/10, Normal | 6.6/10, Tired |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 25.0 | 27.3 |
| Back-to-back arms | 4 | 3 |
| 7-day ERA | 2.88 | 3.95 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.08 | 1.28 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 0.8 runs below the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
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