MLB matchup analysis
Guardians vs Royals Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Saturday, September 26, 2026 at Kauffman Stadium · 7:10 PM ET
Leo decision: Pass on Guardians vs Royals
The case for Kansas City Royals
The case for Cleveland Guardians
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
The combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Final result
Guardians 11, Royals 5
How the analysis held up
Cleveland Guardians won. Leo's model favored the other side.
Leo's two internal reads disagreed pregame by 32.2 points — the team-strength model favored Kansas City Royals, the run-projection model favored Cleveland Guardians. The run-projection model had the winner here.
Michael Wacha (Kansas City Royals), the starter Leo's pitcher score favored, actually outpitched Tanner Bibee: 6.1 IP, 2 ER (2.84 ERA) against 6.0 IP, 3 ER (4.50 ERA). The edge held up.
The Cleveland Guardians bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (High risk). In relief it actually allowed 2 earned runs over 3.0 innings (6.00 ERA) — the risk read showed up.
The Kansas City Royals bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (High risk). In relief it actually allowed 5 earned runs over 2.2 innings (16.88 ERA) — the risk read showed up. Note: 4 of the runs charged to the Kansas City Royals pitching staff overall were unearned — not something the bullpen's stuff should be blamed for.
Cleveland Guardians scored 11, 6 more than the 5 pregame projection.
Likely driver: the Kansas City Royals bullpen allowed 5 earned runs over 2.2 relief innings (16.88 ERA), which is exactly the risk flagged pregame, and Cleveland Guardians's offense scored 6 more runs than projected.
Game information
| Matchup | Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royals |
|---|---|
| Date | Saturday, September 26, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:10 PM ET |
| Venue | Kauffman Stadium |
| Starting pitchers | Tanner Bibee vs Michael Wacha |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 71°F, 21% precipitation chance, 4 mph wind from E. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Guardians | Royals |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 5⅔ | 6⅓ |
| Throws | R | R |
| Leo pitcher score (higher is better) | 63 | 72 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 4.36 | 3.32 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.22 | 1.11 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 7.1 | 7.1 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 11.9% | 12.8% |
| K% (higher is better) | 19.0% | 19.5% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 7.1% | 6.7% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 2.6 | 2.4 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| Ground-ball rate | 40.5% | 40.7% |
| Fly-ball rate | 59.5% | 59.3% |
Pitcher edge: Leo gives Michael Wacha a 9-point edge over Tanner Bibee, driven mainly by ERA (3.32 vs 4.36) and expected innings (6.3 vs 5.7).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Guardians are 8-2 in their last 10 and averaging 5.2 runs per game over the last 15 days; Royals are 2-8 in their last 10 and averaging 4.1 runs per game over the last 15 days. On the season Guardians carry the better run differential per game (+0.07 against -0.75).
| Metric | Guardians | Royals |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 8-2 | 2-8 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 7-3 on the road | 3-7 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.750 | 0.708 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.331 | 0.312 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 5.2 | 4.1 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 16.8% | 23.6% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Guardians | Royals |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.746 (+0.050 vs szn) | 0.740 (+0.023 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 4.93 (+0.727 vs szn) | 4.52 (+0.251 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.328 (+0.019 vs szn) | 0.325 (+0.009 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 17.7% (-3.1% vs szn) | 20.7% |
Over the last 30 days the Guardians have been the better offense, 0.328 wOBA to 0.325. They are running hot against their own season line (+0.019 wOBA).
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Guardians | Royals |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 84-76 | 68-92 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | +0.07 | -0.75 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.20 | 4.27 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.12 | 5.02 |
| Season OPS | 0.691 | 0.717 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 20.8% | 20.9% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.701 | 0.726 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Guardians and Royals are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Guardians | Royals |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 10.0/10, High risk | 8.9/10, High risk |
| Efficiency | 6.7/10, Effective | 2.8/10, Struggling |
| Combined risk | 9.2/10, High risk | 10.0/10, High risk |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 27.0 | 28.0 |
| Back-to-back arms | 5 | 3 |
| 7-day ERA | 2.00 | 6.75 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.07 | 1.71 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 1.1 runs below the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
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