MLB matchup analysis
Angels vs Mariners Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Saturday, September 26, 2026 at T-Mobile Park · 9:40 PM ET
Leo decision: Pass on Angels vs Mariners
The case for Seattle Mariners
The case for Los Angeles Angels
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
The combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Final result
Angels 4, Mariners 8
How the analysis held up
Seattle Mariners won, the side Leo's model favored.
Kade Anderson (Seattle Mariners), the starter Leo's pitcher score favored, actually outpitched Ryan Johnson: 3.1 IP, 0 ER (0.00 ERA) against 5.0 IP, 4 ER (7.20 ERA). The edge held up.
The Los Angeles Angels bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (High risk). In relief it actually allowed 4 earned runs over 3.0 innings (12.00 ERA) — the risk read showed up.
The Seattle Mariners bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (Tired). In relief it actually allowed 2 earned runs over 5.2 innings (3.18 ERA) — the risk read did not show up on the scoreboard tonight. Note: 2 of the runs charged to the Seattle Mariners pitching staff overall were unearned — not something the bullpen's stuff should be blamed for.
Seattle Mariners scored 8, 2.1 more than the 5.9 pregame projection.
Game information
| Matchup | Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Mariners |
|---|---|
| Date | Saturday, September 26, 2026 |
| First pitch | 9:40 PM ET |
| Venue | T-Mobile Park |
| Starting pitchers | Ryan Johnson vs Kade Anderson |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 54°F, 0% precipitation chance, 5 mph wind from N. This venue has a roof, but the roof status is not confirmed. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Angels | Mariners |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 5 | 5⅓ |
| Throws | R | L |
| Leo pitcher score (higher is better) | 55 | 62 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 4.93 | 4.18 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.35 | 1.21 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 7.2 | 7.8 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 9.0% | 15.3% |
| K% (higher is better) | 18.5% | 21.4% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 9.5% | 6.1% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 3.7 | 2.2 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.7 | 1.1 |
| Ground-ball rate | 39.5% | 43.8% |
| Fly-ball rate | 60.5% | 56.3% |
Pitcher edge: Leo gives Kade Anderson a 7-point edge over Ryan Johnson, driven mainly by BB/9 (2.2 vs 3.7) and K-BB% (15.3% vs 9.0%).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Angels are 5-5 in their last 10 and averaging 4.1 runs per game over the last 15 days; Mariners are 4-6 in their last 10 and averaging 5.2 runs per game over the last 15 days. Season run differential separates them by almost nothing (-0.58 against -0.39).
| Metric | Angels | Mariners |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 5-5 | 4-6 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 4-6 on the road | 5-5 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.666 | 0.770 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.300 | 0.340 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 4.1 | 5.2 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 26.8% | 18.8% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Angels | Mariners |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.654 (-0.025 vs szn) | 0.728 (+0.036 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 3.85 (-0.198 vs szn) | 4.85 (+0.771 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.294 (-0.009 vs szn) | 0.322 (+0.014 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 26.8% (+1.4% vs szn) | 22.3% (-0.8% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Mariners have been the better offense, 0.322 wOBA to 0.294. They are running hot against their own season line (+0.014 wOBA). Angels are striking out at 26.8% over the window — something the opposing starter can lean on.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Angels | Mariners |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 62-98 | 74-86 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | -0.58 | -0.39 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.05 | 4.08 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.63 | 4.47 |
| Season OPS | 0.680 | 0.690 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 25.4% | 23.0% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.695 | 0.711 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Angels and Mariners are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Angels | Mariners |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 7.0/10, Tired | 6.8/10, Tired |
| Efficiency | 2.6/10, Struggling | 4.6/10, Average |
| Combined risk | 8.2/10, High risk | 7.0/10, Tired |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 24.0 | 21.3 |
| Back-to-back arms | 6 | 5 |
| 7-day ERA | 7.13 | 4.64 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.71 | 1.41 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 2.0 runs above the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
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