Leo daily card
MLB Picks | Sunday, September 13, 2026
One authoritative page for every official pick, research setup, and pass. Each decision includes the model probability, matchup evidence, risk, and author.
GAMES
15
OFFICIAL PICKS
2
across all markets
VALUE WATCH
1
WATCHLIST
2
PASSES
10
Updated Sep 13, 8:26 PM EDT. Official picks are published before grading.
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Top Lab Rating
Official Pick
Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays
Official markets
Moneyline: Toronto Blue Jays -148
- Leo side
- Toronto Blue Jays Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 9.1/10
- Model probability
- 70.5%
- Market probability
- 57.8%
- Model vs market
- +12.7%
- Current price
- -148
- Pitcher edge
- Toronto Blue Jays by 16 points
- Bullpen read
- Toronto Blue Jays carries the heavier bullpen workload, 9.1/10 versus 6.1/10, which adds late-game risk. Toronto Blue Jays has used 30.0 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 2 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionToronto Blue Jays is an official moneyline pick because Leo gives it a 70.5% chance to win, compared with the market's 57.8% no-vig probability. The full setup earned a 9.1/10 Lab Rating. Toronto Blue Jays has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 16 rating points. Toronto Blue Jays carries the higher-risk bullpen, 8.2/10 versus 5.5/10. Recent context: 30.0 relief innings over the last 7 days, 2 back-to-back arms. Toronto Blue Jays's pen has been effective lately (6.9/10 efficiency). Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 21.2 points from 91.7% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 70.5%. At -148, the price still offers enough value for the play to qualify as official.
Risk notePrimary caution: bullpen fatigue adds late-game caution. Recheck official news before first pitch.
Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks
- Leo side
- Texas Rangers Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 7.6/10
- Model probability
- 51.9%
- Market probability
- 45.5%
- Model vs market
- +6.5%
- Current price
- +116
- Pitcher edge
- No clear SP edge by 2 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Texas Rangers is 7.2/10 and Arizona Diamondbacks is 6.8/10.
Why Leo made this decisionTexas Rangers grades as a strong value setup with 51.9% model win probability against a 45.5% market number and a 7.6/10 Lab Rating. The starting pitching matchup does not create a clear advantage. Bullpen risk is elevated but not decisive. Texas Rangers is 7.2/10 and Arizona Diamondbacks is 6.2/10. Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 2.6 points from 54.6% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 51.9%. It stayed a value watch because model win probability is 51.9%, below the 61.0% official-pick gate.
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs
Official markets
Moneyline: Chicago Cubs -157
- Leo side
- Chicago Cubs Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 7.3/10
- Model probability
- 62.4%
- Market probability
- 60.1%
- Model vs market
- +2.3%
- Current price
- -159
- Pitcher edge
- Chicago Cubs by 5 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Chicago Cubs is 5.8/10 and Pittsburgh Pirates is 7.2/10.
Why Leo made this decisionChicago Cubs is an official moneyline pick because Leo gives it a 62.4% chance to win, compared with the market's 60.1% no-vig probability. The full setup earned a 7.3/10 Lab Rating. Chicago Cubs has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 5 rating points. Chicago Cubs has the lower-risk bullpen, 5.2/10 versus 7.8/10. Pittsburgh Pirates has 26.7 relief innings over the last 7 days, 7 back-to-back arms. Pittsburgh Pirates's pen has been below average lately (3.9/10 efficiency). Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 10.9 points from 73.2% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 62.4%. At -159, the price still offers enough value for the play to qualify as official.
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
New York Mets @ New York Yankees
- Leo side
- New York Yankees Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 6.5/10
- Model probability
- 72.8%
- Market probability
- 61.9%
- Model vs market
- +10.9%
- Current price
- -171
- Pitcher edge
- New York Yankees by 18 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. New York Yankees is 6.9/10 and New York Mets is 5.6/10.
Why Leo made this decisionNew York Yankees is worth monitoring, but it does not clear every requirement for an official pick. Leo projects 72.8% win probability, the market is at 61.9%, and the setup carries a 6.5/10 Lab Rating. New York Yankees has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 18 rating points. New York Yankees carries the higher-risk bullpen, 7.6/10 versus 6.0/10. Recent context: 19.0 relief innings over the last 7 days, 5 back-to-back arms. New York Yankees's pen has been below average lately (3.7/10 efficiency). Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 23.0 points from 95.8% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 72.8%.
Risk notePrimary caution: bullpen fatigue adds late-game caution. Recheck official news before first pitch.
Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox
- Leo side
- Boston Red Sox Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 6.5/10
- Model probability
- 67.7%
- Market probability
- 63.4%
- Model vs market
- +4.3%
- Current price
- -183
- Pitcher edge
- Boston Red Sox by 10 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Boston Red Sox is 4.5/10 and Kansas City Royals is 6.0/10.
Why Leo made this decisionBoston Red Sox is worth monitoring, but it does not clear every requirement for an official pick. Leo projects 67.7% win probability, the market is at 63.4%, and the setup carries a 6.5/10 Lab Rating. Boston Red Sox has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 10 rating points. Boston Red Sox has the lower-risk bullpen, 3.7/10 versus 6.0/10. Kansas City Royals has 22.3 relief innings over the last 7 days, 6 back-to-back arms. Kansas City Royals's pen has been average lately (5.1/10 efficiency). Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 16.8 points from 84.5% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 67.7%.
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals
- Leo side
- St. Louis Cardinals Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 6.2/10
- Model probability
- 72.2%
- Market probability
- 48.3%
- Model vs market
- +23.9%
- Current price
- +105
- Pitcher edge
- St. Louis Cardinals by 27 points
- Bullpen read
- Both bullpens are heavily taxed. St. Louis Cardinals is 10.0/10 and Chicago White Sox is 9.9/10, so late-game volatility is elevated on both sides.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins
- Leo side
- Minnesota Twins Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 6.1/10
- Model probability
- 61.2%
- Market probability
- 53.7%
- Model vs market
- +7.5%
- Current price
- -122
- Pitcher edge
- Minnesota Twins by 8 points
- Bullpen read
- Both bullpens are heavily taxed. Minnesota Twins is 8.0/10 and Cleveland Guardians is 8.1/10, so late-game volatility is elevated on both sides.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants
- Leo side
- San Diego Padres Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 5.9/10
- Model probability
- 61.3%
- Market probability
- 56.5%
- Model vs market
- +4.8%
- Current price
- -138
- Pitcher edge
- San Diego Padres by 6 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. San Diego Padres is 8.2/10 and San Francisco Giants is 7.0/10.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Seattle Mariners @ Athletics
- Leo side
- Seattle Mariners Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 5.7/10
- Model probability
- 70.5%
- Market probability
- 54.8%
- Model vs market
- +15.6%
- Current price
- -126
- Pitcher edge
- Seattle Mariners by 13 points
- Bullpen read
- Seattle Mariners has the fresher bullpen, 5.3/10 versus 8.4/10. Athletics has used 30.0 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 5 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays
- Leo side
- Houston Astros Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 5.3/10
- Model probability
- 67.9%
- Market probability
- 45.6%
- Model vs market
- +22.3%
- Current price
- +116
- Pitcher edge
- Houston Astros by 14 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Houston Astros is 7.6/10 and Tampa Bay Rays is 6.6/10.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves
- Leo side
- Atlanta Braves Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 5.2/10
- Model probability
- 72.5%
- Market probability
- 54.2%
- Model vs market
- +18.3%
- Current price
- -125
- Pitcher edge
- Atlanta Braves by 16 points
- Bullpen read
- Atlanta Braves has the fresher bullpen, 5.8/10 versus 7.9/10. Philadelphia Phillies has used 20.3 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 7 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins
- Leo side
- Miami Marlins Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 4.9/10
- Model probability
- 58.0%
- Market probability
- 44.1%
- Model vs market
- +13.9%
- Current price
- +121
- Pitcher edge
- Miami Marlins by 6 points
- Bullpen read
- Miami Marlins carries the heavier bullpen workload, 8.0/10 versus 5.1/10, which adds late-game risk. Miami Marlins has used 28.0 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 7 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers
- Leo side
- Cincinnati Reds Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 4.9/10
- Model probability
- 66.3%
- Market probability
- 36.2%
- Model vs market
- +30.1%
- Current price
- +172
- Pitcher edge
- Cincinnati Reds by 15 points
- Bullpen read
- Cincinnati Reds carries the heavier bullpen workload, 8.6/10 versus 7.0/10, which adds late-game risk. Cincinnati Reds has used 29.0 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 6 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals
- Leo side
- Los Angeles Angels Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 3.3/10
- Model probability
- 73.2%
- Market probability
- 44.6%
- Model vs market
- +28.6%
- Current price
- +122
- Pitcher edge
- Los Angeles Angels by 21 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Los Angeles Angels is 6.5/10 and Washington Nationals is 6.1/10.
Why Leo made this decisionBullpen game impact
Washington Nationals is using a bullpen game. Riley Cornelio is expected to cover about 2.5 innings, leaving roughly 6.5 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 7.6/10 risk with 2.1/10 recent efficiency. That heavy bullpen exposure strengthens the case for Los Angeles Angels. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 5.8/10 for Los Angeles Angels versus 2.1/10 for Washington Nationals.
This is a bullpen game -- no confirmed traditional starter, so Leo does not publish an official pick here.
Washington Nationals is using a bullpen game. Riley Cornelio is expected to cover about 2.5 innings, leaving roughly 6.5 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 7.6/10 risk with 2.1/10 recent efficiency. That heavy bullpen exposure strengthens the case for Los Angeles Angels. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 5.8/10 for Los Angeles Angels versus 2.1/10 for Washington Nationals.
This is a bullpen game -- no confirmed traditional starter, so Leo does not publish an official pick here.
Pass reasonThis is a bullpen game -- no confirmed traditional starter, so Leo does not publish an official pick here.
Colorado Rockies @ Detroit Tigers
- Leo side
- Detroit Tigers Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 2.9/10
- Model probability
- 64.8%
- Market probability
- -
- Model vs market
- -
- Current price
- -
- Pitcher edge
- Detroit Tigers by 7 points
- Bullpen read
- Detroit Tigers carries the heavier bullpen workload, 7.0/10 versus 5.3/10, which adds late-game risk. Detroit Tigers has used 23.7 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 7 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionNo market data available, so this stays research-only until pricing is checked.
Pass reasonNo market data available, so this stays research-only until pricing is checked.
Model outputs, not promises. Leo provides analysis and education only, not betting advice. Every official pick is graded on the Results page.