MLB matchup analysis
White Sox vs Cardinals Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Sunday, September 13, 2026 at Busch Stadium · 2:15 PM ET
Leo decision: Pass on White Sox vs Cardinals
The case for St. Louis Cardinals
The case for Chicago White Sox
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
The combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Final result
White Sox 1, Cardinals 3
How the analysis held up
St. Louis Cardinals won, the side Leo's model favored.
Michael McGreevy (St. Louis Cardinals) was Leo's favored starter by pitcher score, but David Sandlin actually pitched better tonight: 5.2 IP, 0 ER (0.00 ERA) against 6.0 IP, 1 ER (1.50 ERA). The edge did not show up in this game.
The Chicago White Sox bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (High risk). In relief it actually allowed 0 earned runs over 2.1 innings (0.00 ERA) — the risk read did not show up on the scoreboard tonight. Note: 3 of the runs charged to the Chicago White Sox pitching staff overall were unearned — not something the bullpen's stuff should be blamed for.
The St. Louis Cardinals bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (High risk). In relief it actually allowed 0 earned runs over 3.0 innings (0.00 ERA) — the risk read did not show up on the scoreboard tonight.
Chicago White Sox scored 1, 3.1 fewer than the 4.1 pregame projection.
St. Louis Cardinals scored 3, 3 fewer than the 6 pregame projection.
Game information
| Matchup | Chicago White Sox at St. Louis Cardinals |
|---|---|
| Date | Sunday, September 13, 2026 |
| First pitch | 2:15 PM ET |
| Venue | Busch Stadium |
| Starting pitchers | David Sandlin vs Michael McGreevy |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 79°F, 1% precipitation chance, 9 mph wind from N. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | White Sox | Cardinals |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 5⅓ | 5⅔ |
| Throws | R | R |
| Leo pitcher score (higher is better) | 52 | 65 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 5.64 | 3.83 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.19 | 1.24 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 8.6 | 6.3 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 13.5% | 10.2% |
| K% (higher is better) | 23.0% | 17.0% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 9.5% | 6.8% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 3.6 | 2.5 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.8 | 1.1 |
| Ground-ball rate | 58.3% | 51.7% |
| Fly-ball rate | 41.7% | 48.3% |
Pitcher edge: Leo gives Michael McGreevy a 13-point edge over David Sandlin, driven mainly by ERA (3.83 vs 5.64) and HR/9 (1.13 vs 1.78).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →White Sox are 3-7 in their last 10 and averaging 3.3 runs per game over the last 15 days; Cardinals are 4-6 in their last 10 and averaging 5.8 runs per game over the last 15 days. Season run differential separates them by almost nothing (+0.23 against -0.05).
| Metric | White Sox | Cardinals |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 3-7 | 4-6 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 4-6 on the road | 5-5 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.633 | 0.747 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.289 | 0.329 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 3.3 | 5.8 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 25.9% | 20.8% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | White Sox | Cardinals |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.713 (-0.008 vs szn) | 0.723 (+0.021 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 4.17 (-0.492 vs szn) | 5.31 (+0.757 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.318 | 0.319 (+0.008 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 24.3% | 22.1% (+1.3% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Cardinals have been the better offense, 0.319 wOBA to 0.318. White Sox are striking out at 24.3% over the window — something the opposing starter can lean on.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | White Sox | Cardinals |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 76-72 | 73-76 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | +0.23 | -0.05 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.66 | 4.55 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.44 | 4.60 |
| Season OPS | 0.723 | 0.703 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 24.1% | 20.7% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.716 | 0.701 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. White Sox and Cardinals are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | White Sox | Cardinals |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 9.9/10, High risk | 10.0/10, High risk |
| Efficiency | 4.3/10, Below average | 4.0/10, Below average |
| Combined risk | 10.0/10, High risk | 10.0/10, High risk |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 44.0 | 25.7 |
| Back-to-back arms | 2 | 9 |
| 7-day ERA | 4.91 | 5.61 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.45 | 1.40 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 4.1 runs above the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
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