MLB matchup analysis
Phillies vs Braves Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Sunday, September 13, 2026 at Truist Park · 1:35 PM ET
Leo decision: Pass on Phillies vs Braves
The case for Atlanta Braves
The case for Philadelphia Phillies
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
The combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Final result
Phillies 9, Braves 4
How the analysis held up
Philadelphia Phillies won. Leo's model favored the other side.
Leo's two internal reads disagreed pregame by 64.1 points — the team-strength model favored Atlanta Braves, the run-projection model favored Philadelphia Phillies. The run-projection model had the winner here.
Grant Holmes (Atlanta Braves) was Leo's favored starter by pitcher score, but Andrew Painter actually pitched better tonight: 5.0 IP, 1 ER (1.80 ERA) against 4.0 IP, 2 ER (4.50 ERA). The edge did not show up in this game.
The Philadelphia Phillies bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (High risk). In relief it actually allowed 3 earned runs over 4.0 innings (6.75 ERA) — the risk read showed up.
The Atlanta Braves bullpen was not flagged pregame, but it had a night worth noting: 7 earned runs allowed over 5.0 relief innings (12.60 ERA) — quietly worse than the pregame read implied.
Philadelphia Phillies scored 9, 4.5 more than the 4.5 pregame projection.
Likely driver: the Atlanta Braves bullpen allowed 7 earned runs over 5.0 relief innings (12.60 ERA), which was not flagged pregame but showed up anyway, and Philadelphia Phillies's offense scored 4.5 more runs than projected.
Game information
| Matchup | Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves |
|---|---|
| Date | Sunday, September 13, 2026 |
| First pitch | 1:35 PM ET |
| Venue | Truist Park |
| Starting pitchers | Andrew Painter vs Grant Holmes |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 81°F, 0% precipitation chance, 2 mph wind from NW. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Phillies | Braves |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 5 | 5 |
| Throws | R | R |
| Leo pitcher score (higher is better) | 50 | 65 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 5.54 | 3.49 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.44 | 1.30 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 7.8 | 7.0 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 11.2% | 8.5% |
| K% (higher is better) | 19.7% | 18.3% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 8.5% | 9.8% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 3.4 | 3.7 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.5 | 1.3 |
| Ground-ball rate | 43.6% | 47.4% |
| Fly-ball rate | 56.4% | 52.6% |
Pitcher edge: Leo gives Grant Holmes a 15-point edge over Andrew Painter, driven mainly by ERA (3.49 vs 5.54) and WHIP (1.30 vs 1.44).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Phillies are 3-7 in their last 10 and averaging 3.8 runs per game over the last 15 days; Braves are 6-4 in their last 10 and averaging 4.1 runs per game over the last 15 days. On the season Braves carry the better run differential per game (+0.77 against +0.21).
| Metric | Phillies | Braves |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 3-7 | 6-4 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 7-3 on the road | 6-4 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.650 | 0.677 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.289 | 0.298 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 3.8 | 4.1 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 19.7% | 21.2% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Phillies | Braves |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.727 (+0.015 vs szn) | 0.663 (-0.058 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 4.93 (+0.426 vs szn) | 3.52 (-1.103 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.320 (+0.006 vs szn) | 0.292 (-0.025 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 18.1% (-3.9% vs szn) | 22.5% (+0.9% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Phillies have been the better offense, 0.320 wOBA to 0.292.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Phillies | Braves |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 82-67 | 88-61 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | +0.21 | +0.77 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.50 | 4.62 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.29 | 3.85 |
| Season OPS | 0.710 | 0.720 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 22.0% | 21.6% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.709 | 0.732 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Phillies and Braves are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Phillies | Braves |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 7.9/10, Tired | 5.8/10, Normal |
| Efficiency | 2.8/10, Struggling | 6.0/10, Effective |
| Combined risk | 9.0/10, High risk | 5.3/10, Normal |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 20.3 | 23.0 |
| Back-to-back arms | 7 | 4 |
| 7-day ERA | 6.64 | 3.13 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.77 | 1.04 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 2.2 runs above the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
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