MLB matchup analysis
Guardians vs Twins Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Sunday, September 13, 2026 at Target Field · 2:10 PM ET
Leo decision: Pass on Guardians vs Twins
The case for Minnesota Twins
The case for Cleveland Guardians
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
The combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Final result
Guardians 9, Twins 2
How the analysis held up
Cleveland Guardians won. Leo's model favored the other side.
Leo's two internal reads disagreed pregame by 29.2 points — the team-strength model favored Minnesota Twins, the run-projection model favored Cleveland Guardians. The run-projection model had the winner here.
Joe Ryan (Minnesota Twins) was Leo's favored starter by pitcher score, but Tanner Bibee actually pitched better tonight: 6.2 IP, 2 ER (2.70 ERA) against 4.0 IP, 4 ER (9.00 ERA). The edge did not show up in this game.
The Cleveland Guardians bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (Tired). In relief it actually allowed 0 earned runs over 2.1 innings (0.00 ERA) — the risk read did not show up on the scoreboard tonight.
The Minnesota Twins bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (High risk). In relief it actually allowed 5 earned runs over 5.0 innings (9.00 ERA) — the risk read showed up.
Cleveland Guardians scored 9, 4.6 more than the 4.4 pregame projection.
Minnesota Twins scored 2, 1.9 fewer than the 3.9 pregame projection.
Likely driver: Joe Ryan, the pick's own starter, was rocked for a 9.00 ERA, and the Minnesota Twins bullpen allowed 5 earned runs over 5.0 relief innings (9.00 ERA), which is exactly the risk flagged pregame.
Game information
| Matchup | Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twins |
|---|---|
| Date | Sunday, September 13, 2026 |
| First pitch | 2:10 PM ET |
| Venue | Target Field |
| Starting pitchers | Tanner Bibee vs Joe Ryan |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 67°F, 0% precipitation chance, 2 mph wind from W. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Guardians | Twins |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 5⅔ | 5⅓ |
| Throws | R | R |
| Leo pitcher score (higher is better) | 65 | 71 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 4.16 | 3.84 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.18 | 1.16 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 7.1 | 9.8 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 11.8% | 20.7% |
| K% (higher is better) | 19.2% | 25.9% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 7.4% | 5.1% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 2.7 | 2.0 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| Ground-ball rate | 39.3% | 42.0% |
| Fly-ball rate | 60.7% | 58.0% |
Pitcher edge: Leo gives Joe Ryan a 6-point edge over Tanner Bibee, driven mainly by K-BB% (20.7% vs 11.8%) and K/9 (9.8 vs 7.1).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Guardians are 5-5 in their last 10 and averaging 4.5 runs per game over the last 15 days; Twins are 4-6 in their last 10 and averaging 4.8 runs per game over the last 15 days. On the season Guardians carry the better run differential per game (-0.05 against -0.42).
| Metric | Guardians | Twins |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 5-5 | 4-6 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 7-3 on the road | 5-5 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.695 | 0.708 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.308 | 0.315 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 4.5 | 4.8 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 17.6% | 20.8% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Guardians | Twins |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.718 (+0.029 vs szn) | 0.712 (-0.011 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 4.71 (+0.614 vs szn) | 4.27 (-0.315 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.317 (+0.011 vs szn) | 0.316 |
| K% (lower is better) | 18.5% (-2.7% vs szn) | 19.6% (-1.5% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Guardians have been the better offense, 0.317 wOBA to 0.316. They are running hot against their own season line (+0.011 wOBA).
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Guardians | Twins |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 75-74 | 70-78 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | -0.05 | -0.42 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.10 | 4.58 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.15 | 5.00 |
| Season OPS | 0.685 | 0.724 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 21.2% | 21.1% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.696 | 0.743 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Guardians and Twins are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Guardians | Twins |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 8.1/10, Tired | 8.0/10, Tired |
| Efficiency | 7.0/10, Effective | 2.9/10, Struggling |
| Combined risk | 7.1/10, Tired | 9.1/10, High risk |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 31.7 | 24.0 |
| Back-to-back arms | 3 | 4 |
| 7-day ERA | 1.99 | 6.75 |
| 7-day WHIP | 0.85 | 1.67 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model and market are close. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
More games today
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