MLB matchup analysis
Mariners vs Athletics Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Sunday, September 13, 2026 at Sutter Health Park · 4:05 PM ET
Leo decision: Pass on Mariners vs Athletics
The case for Seattle Mariners
The case for Athletics
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
The combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Final result
Mariners 7, Athletics 8
How the analysis held up
Athletics won. Leo's model favored the other side.
Leo's two internal reads disagreed pregame by 48 points — the team-strength model favored Seattle Mariners, the run-projection model favored Athletics. The run-projection model had the winner here.
Bryce Miller (Seattle Mariners), the starter Leo's pitcher score favored, actually outpitched Jacob Lopez: 5.0 IP, 2 ER (3.60 ERA) against 3.2 IP, 5 ER (12.27 ERA). The edge held up.
The Seattle Mariners bullpen was not flagged pregame, but it had a night worth noting: 6 earned runs allowed over 3.0 relief innings (18.00 ERA) — quietly worse than the pregame read implied.
The Athletics bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (High risk). In relief it actually allowed 2 earned runs over 5.1 innings (3.38 ERA) — the risk read did not show up on the scoreboard tonight.
Seattle Mariners scored 7, 1.7 more than the 5.3 pregame projection.
Athletics scored 8, 2.1 more than the 5.9 pregame projection.
Likely driver: the Seattle Mariners bullpen allowed 6 earned runs over 3.0 relief innings (18.00 ERA), which was not flagged pregame but showed up anyway, and Athletics's offense scored 2.1 more runs than projected.
Game information
| Matchup | Seattle Mariners at Athletics |
|---|---|
| Date | Sunday, September 13, 2026 |
| First pitch | 4:05 PM ET |
| Venue | Sutter Health Park |
| Starting pitchers | Bryce Miller vs Jacob Lopez |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 81°F, 0% precipitation chance, 6 mph wind from N. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Mariners | Athletics |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 5⅓ | 4⅔ |
| Throws | R | L |
| Leo pitcher score (higher is better) | 67 | 52 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 4.19 | 5.02 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.16 | 1.48 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 8.9 | 8.4 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 16.5% | 10.0% |
| K% (higher is better) | 24.3% | 20.9% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 7.8% | 11.0% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 2.9 | 4.4 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.7 | 1.6 |
| Ground-ball rate | 42.4% | 32.6% |
| Fly-ball rate | 57.6% | 67.4% |
Pitcher edge: Leo gives Bryce Miller a 15-point edge over Jacob Lopez, driven mainly by BB/9 (2.9 vs 4.4) and WHIP (1.16 vs 1.48).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Mariners are 5-5 in their last 10 and averaging 5.6 runs per game over the last 15 days; Athletics are 7-3 in their last 10 and averaging 4.3 runs per game over the last 15 days. On the season Mariners carry the better run differential per game (-0.39 against -1.35).
| Metric | Mariners | Athletics |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 5-5 | 7-3 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 3-7 on the road | 5-5 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.756 | 0.723 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.333 | 0.320 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 5.6 | 4.3 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 22.4% | 21.3% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Mariners | Athletics |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.737 (+0.045 vs szn) | 0.755 (+0.032 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 5.11 (+1.027 vs szn) | 4.55 (+0.178 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.327 (+0.018 vs szn) | 0.334 (+0.014 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 23.8% (+0.7% vs szn) | 20.8% (-1.6% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Athletics have been the better offense, 0.334 wOBA to 0.327. They are running hot against their own season line (+0.014 wOBA).
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Mariners | Athletics |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 70-79 | 60-89 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | -0.39 | -1.35 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.08 | 4.37 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.47 | 5.73 |
| Season OPS | 0.691 | 0.720 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 23.1% | 22.4% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.637 | 0.718 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Mariners and Athletics are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Mariners | Athletics |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 5.3/10, Normal | 8.4/10, High risk |
| Efficiency | 5.0/10, Average | 3.6/10, Below average |
| Combined risk | 5.3/10, Normal | 9.1/10, High risk |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 17.3 | 30.0 |
| Back-to-back arms | 4 | 5 |
| 7-day ERA | 4.15 | 5.70 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.33 | 1.63 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 0.8 runs above the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
More games today
All matchups →Every Leo pick, graded in public
Free daily model card by email, or open today's full slate. Membership adds delivery before first pitch.
Model outputs are not guarantees. Leo provides analysis and education only. Every official pick remains visible on the Results page. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.