Week 7 · Sunday 13:00

TBTB at CARCAR

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · Division game

TB moneyline+130
CAR moneyline-155
SpreadCAR -3
Total44.5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers

Every game this week on Leo’s Week 7 card →

This is a pre-game analysis page. Every stat above the Final result comes from games played before this one (through Week 6), and Leo’s numbers were frozen before kickoff. Market numbers are the closing line. Nothing here is a wager — the pick gate stays closed until Leo shows it can beat that line.

Leo’s read

What the model expected, frozen before kickoff (Oct 25, 7:52 AM ET). Each player projection is rate × volume × opponent adjustment — the columns show every input. None of this is a wager.

Leo win chanceCAR 67%chance to win; information, not a pick
Leo total45.1points, both teams
Leo marginCAR by 6.2expected winning margin

Passing yards

Playeryds/attattopp adjgamesLeo
Bryce Young CAR QB1 7.437.315 276
Baker Mayfield TB QB1 6.63213 209

Rushing yards

Playeryds/carrycaropp adjgamesLeo
Chuba Hubbard CAR RB1 4.316.60.95 62
Bucky Irving TB RB1 416.10.96 61
Sean Tucker TB RB2 4.43.60.92 16
AJ Dillon CAR RB2 4.14.10.94 16

Receiving yards

Playeryds/tgttgtopp adjgamesLeo
Tetairoa McMillan CAR WR1 8.58.715 80
Jalen Coker CAR WR2 7.76.814 57
Tez Johnson TB WR3 212.416 56
Chris Godwin Jr. TB WR1 7.85.216 45
Ted Hurst III TB WR2 9.24.315 44
John Metchie III CAR WR3 5.73.714 25
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Injury report

The official Week 7 report for each side, as captured Sun, Oct 25, 7:53 AM ET. Teams file game statuses on the last practice day; anyone not listed is expected to play. Final inactives come 90 minutes before kickoff.

TB Game status

3 out · 1 questionable

  • Out Emeka EgbukaWR Concussion / Foot
  • Out Luke GoedekeT Calf
  • Out Antoine Winfield Jr.S Rib
  • Questionable Baker MayfieldQB Thumb
CAR Game status

2 out · 2 questionable

  • Out Jaelan PhillipsLB Hamstring
  • Out Thomas IncoomLB Calf
  • Questionable Monroe FreelingT Knee
  • Questionable Bam Martin-ScottLB Hamstring

Leo ratings — head to head

Each rating is 0–100 against the league this season, built from efficiency rather than record: 50 is average, every 15 points is one standard deviation. These describe the teams — they are not used to price the game.

TB This season CAR
30 QuarterbackEPA, accuracy, giveaways 57
39 Offenseefficiency, explosives, ball security 56
56 DefenseEPA allowed, pressure, takeaways 44
48 Overall 50
QB 46 · OFF 50 · DEF 47 Last season QB 46 · OFF 43 · DEF 43

The turnover battle

Interceptions thrown against interceptions caught, and the same for fumbles. Bold is the better side of each line.

TB Per game, this season CAR
1.17Interceptions thrown0.40
1.00Interceptions caught0.60
0.67Fumbles lost0.20
0.50Fumbles forced0.60
1.50Takeaways1.20
1.83Giveaways0.60
-0.33Net turnover margin+0.6

Efficiency detail

The inputs behind the ratings above, shown raw so you can check the work.

TB Offense CAR
-0.148EPA per dropback+0.090
-3.1Completion % over expected+1.8
3.0%Interception rate1.6%
8.7%Sack rate taken5.9%
+0.017Rush EPA per carry-0.065
5.1%Explosive play rate6.2%
TB Defense CAR
-0.048EPA allowed per play+0.028
5.54Yards allowed per play5.64
3.3%Sack rate3.0%
1.5%Interception rate forced1.2%

Team comparison

Season totals on both sides of the ball. Left column is TB, right is CAR.

TB This season CAR
6Games5
186Pass yards/g309.8
127.8Rush yards/g108.8
5Passing TD11
7Interceptions thrown2
237.7Pass yards allowed/g237
75.5Rush yards allowed/g132.2
6Interceptions forced3
TB Last season CAR
220.9Pass yards/g198.2
114.5Rush yards/g114.4
26Passing TD25
11Interceptions thrown13
254.8Pass yards allowed/g220.1
99.1Rush yards allowed/g122.9

This season

Starting quarterback, lead backs and top receivers, by actual usage this season — games before this one only.

TB 2026

Quarterback Leo QB30

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Jalon Daniels460/98 61.2%501125.3 3 / 55.1

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Bucky Irving696 4524.72
Kenny Gainwell619 613.20

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Emeka Egbuka WR16 28/4957.1%240 402
Chris Godwin Jr. WR26 23/2979.3%216 360
Cade Otton TE6 19/2965.5%186 310
CAR 2026

Quarterback Leo QB57

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Bryce Young5121/201 60.2%1549309.8 11 / 27.7

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Chuba Hubbard589 4264.84
AJ Dillon417 432.50

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Tetairoa McMillan WR15 32/4866.7%471 94.22
Jalen Coker WR24 24/3568.6%319 79.82
Darren Waller TE5 13/2161.9%148 29.62

Last season

The same players' full prior season, for a baseline the early-season sample cannot give you.

TB 2025

Quarterback Leo QB46

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Baker Mayfield17343/543 63.2%3693217.2 26 / 116.8

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Bucky Irving10173 5883.41
Rachaad White17132 5724.34

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Emeka Egbuka WR117 63/12749.6%938 55.26
Mike Evans WR28 30/6248.4%368 463
Cade Otton TE15 59/8172.8%572 38.11
CAR 2025

Quarterback Leo QB46

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Bryce Young17325/518 62.7%3275192.6 24 / 126.3

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Rico Dowdle18241 10854.56
Chuba Hubbard16147 5573.83

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Tetairoa McMillan WR118 75/12958.1%1095 60.87
Xavier Legette WR216 36/6852.9%371 23.23
Tommy Tremble TE16 30/4075%271 16.92

Touchdown props

Leo’s chance that each player scores a rushing or receiving touchdown in this game, the three most likely on each side, from its last read before kickoff.

Most likely to score: Chuba Hubbard (CAR, 52%) and Bucky Irving (TB, 44%). In 2023 to 2025, Leo’s top pick in a game scored 47% of the time, and at least one of its top two scored 69% of the time.
TB Leo’s chance
  1. Bucky Irving RB1 44%
  2. Chris Godwin Jr. WR1 24%
  3. Ted Hurst III WR2 19%
CAR Leo’s chance
  1. Chuba Hubbard RB1 52%
  2. Tetairoa McMillan WR1 41%
  3. Jalen Coker WR2 29%

Player and team statistics from the open nflverse dataset. Roles assigned by actual usage — most attempts, carries and targets — not depth chart.