Week 8 · Sunday 13:00

ATLATL at TBTB

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · Division game

ATL moneyline+110
TB moneyline-130
SpreadTB -2.5
Total42.5

Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Every game this week on Leo’s Week 8 card →

Leo gives the Atlanta Falcons a 55% chance to beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday afternoon, November 1, at Raymond James Stadium, in Week 8. Neither team is above 60%, so Leo calls it too close to call. Leo projects 45.1 total points (posted total 42.5) and expects the Buccaneers by 3.5 (posted spread Buccaneers −2.5). The players Leo thinks are most likely to score a touchdown: Bijan Robinson (55%) and Bucky Irving (53%). Starting quarterbacks: Michael Penix Jr. for the Falcons and Baker Mayfield for the Buccaneers.

Final: Buccaneers 16, Falcons 0. Leo gave the Atlanta Falcons a 55% chance, so the winner read was wrong. The game totaled 16 points against Leo's 45.1 and the posted 42.5. Touchdowns: Bucky Irving.

This is a pre-game analysis page. Every stat above the Final result comes from games played before this one (through Week 7), and Leo’s numbers were frozen before kickoff. Market numbers are the closing line. Nothing here is a wager. Calls are a public test, graded after every game.

Leo’s read

What the model expected, frozen before kickoff (Nov 1, 12:00 PM ET). Each player projection is rate × volume × opponent adjustment, and the columns show every input. None of this is a wager.

Too close to callATL 55%under 60%, so no pick; win chance only
Leo total45.1points, both teams
Leo marginTB by 3.5expected winning margin

Passing yards

Playeryds/attattopp adjgamesLeo
Michael Penix Jr. ATL QB1 7.829.315 229
Baker Mayfield TB QB1 6.528.51.14 194

Rushing yards

Playeryds/carrycaropp adjgamesLeo
Bijan Robinson ATL RB1 5.118.40.97 81
Bucky Irving TB RB1 416.91.17 73
Sean Tucker TB RB2 4.64.11.13 21
Khalil Herbert ATL RB2 4.32.90.91 12

Receiving yards

Playeryds/tgttgtopp adjgamesLeo
Drake London ATL WR1 9.18.417 82
Tez Johnson TB WR3 22.72.41.17 62
Chris Godwin Jr. TB WR1 7.85.11.17 47
Jahan Dotson ATL WR2 10.23.317 39
Ted Hurst III TB WR2 5.93.91.16 29
Olamide Zaccheaus ATL WR3 0.72.716 6

Why Leo has the Falcons at 55%

What moved Leo's win chance away from a coin flip for this game, from the inputs frozen before kickoff.

Leo's win chance and its expected margin come from two separate models. Here the win chance favours the Atlanta Falcons at 55%, while the margin model has Buccaneers by 3.5. Read it as a closer game than 55% suggests.

Leo knows team results, quarterback play and the injury report as of its last read (Nov 1, 12:00 PM ET). It does not know game plans, weather changes or news after that read.

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Injury report

The official Week 8 report for each side, as captured Mon, Nov 2, 7:03 AM ET. Teams file game statuses on the last practice day; anyone not listed is expected to play. Final inactives come 90 minutes before kickoff.

ATL Game status

1 out · 8 questionable

  • Out Brian RobinsonRB Hamstring
  • Questionable Beaux CollinsWR Hip
  • Questionable Olamide ZaccheausWR Shoulder
  • Questionable Cameron WilliamsT Ankle
  • Questionable Charles SnowdenDE Back
  • Questionable Samson EbukamDE Hamstring
  • Questionable Divine DeabloLB Forearm
  • Questionable Avieon TerrellCB Illness
  • Questionable Billy Bowman Jr.CB Hamstring
TB Game status

1 out · 2 questionable

  • Out Emeka EgbukaWR Foot
  • Questionable Kenny GainwellRB Hip
  • Questionable Luke GoedekeT Calf

Leo ratings, head to head

Each rating is 0 to 100 against the league this season, built from efficiency rather than record: 50 is average, every 15 points is one standard deviation. They describe the teams; the “Why Leo has” section above says which of them push Leo’s number.

ATL This season TB
38 QuarterbackEPA, accuracy, giveaways 31
46 Offenseefficiency, explosives, ball security 40
54 DefenseEPA allowed, pressure, takeaways 62
50 Overall 51
QB 47 · OFF 49 · DEF 57 Last season QB 46 · OFF 50 · DEF 47

The turnover battle

Interceptions thrown against interceptions caught, and the same for fumbles. Bold is the better side of each line.

ATL Per game, this season TB
1.00Interceptions thrown1.00
0.43Interceptions caught1.14
0.43Fumbles lost0.57
1.14Fumbles forced0.57
1.57Takeaways1.71
1.43Giveaways1.57
+0.14Net turnover margin+0.14

Efficiency detail

The inputs behind the ratings above, shown raw so you can check the work.

ATL Offense TB
-0.042EPA per dropback-0.134
-3.8Completion % over expected-3.0
2.7%Interception rate2.9%
6.3%Sack rate taken8.5%
-0.022Rush EPA per carry+0.035
6.0%Explosive play rate4.9%
ATL Defense TB
-0.003EPA allowed per play-0.067
5.5Yards allowed per play5.54
4.3%Sack rate3.8%
1.0%Interception rate forced1.7%

Team comparison

Season totals on both sides of the ball. Left column is ATL, right is TB.

ATL This season TB
7Games7
211.3Pass yards/g168.6
139.9Rush yards/g146.4
10Passing TD6
7Interceptions thrown7
271.4Pass yards allowed/g233.7
88.9Rush yards allowed/g77.3
3Interceptions forced8
ATL Last season TB
217.8Pass yards/g220.9
125.8Rush yards/g114.5
19Passing TD26
8Interceptions thrown11
221.9Pass yards allowed/g254.8
126.2Rush yards allowed/g99.1

This season

Starting quarterback, lead backs and top receivers, by actual usage this season, from games before this one only.

ATL 2026

Quarterback Leo QB38

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Michael Penix Jr.596/144 66.7%1157231.4 9 / 18

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Bijan Robinson7131 7045.44
Brian Robinson653 21144

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Drake London WR17 38/5667.9%616 881
Jahan Dotson WR27 12/2548%242 34.62
Kyle Pitts TE7 20/2774.1%191 27.34
TB 2026

Quarterback Leo QB31

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Baker Mayfield468/107 63.6%679169.8 3 / 26.3

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Bucky Irving7120 5584.74
Kenny Gainwell733 1494.50

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Emeka Egbuka WR16 28/4957.1%240 402
Chris Godwin Jr. WR27 27/3479.4%243 34.70
Cade Otton TE7 19/3063.3%186 26.60

Last season

The same players' full prior season, for a baseline the early-season sample cannot give you.

ATL 2025

Quarterback Leo QB47

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Michael Penix Jr.9166/276 60.1%1982220.2 9 / 37.2

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Bijan Robinson17287 14785.17
Tyler Allgeier17143 5143.68

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Drake London WR112 68/11260.7%919 76.67
Darnell Mooney WR215 32/7244.4%443 29.51
Kyle Pitts TE17 88/11874.6%928 54.65
TB 2025

Quarterback Leo QB46

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Baker Mayfield17343/543 63.2%3693217.2 26 / 116.8

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Bucky Irving10173 5883.41
Rachaad White17132 5724.34

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Emeka Egbuka WR117 63/12749.6%938 55.26
Mike Evans WR28 30/6248.4%368 463
Cade Otton TE15 59/8172.8%572 38.11

Touchdown props

Leo’s chance that each player scores a rushing or receiving touchdown in this game, the three most likely on each side, from its last read before kickoff.

Most likely to score: Bijan Robinson (ATL, 55%) and Bucky Irving (TB, 53%). In 2023 to 2025, Leo’s top pick in a game scored 47% of the time, and at least one of its top two scored 69% of the time.
ATL Leo’s chance
  1. Bijan Robinson RB1 55% no TD
  2. Drake London WR1 33% no TD
  3. Kyle Pitts TE1 24% no TD
TB Leo’s chance
  1. Bucky Irving RB1 53% scored
  2. Chris Godwin Jr. WR1 28% no TD
  3. Ted Hurst III WR2 21% no TD

Final result

ATL 0 – 16 TB

How the game was played

Quarterback, the backs who carried it and the receivers who caught it.

ATL
Michael Penix Jr. QB 8/24125 yds0 TD4 INT
Bijan Robinson RB 19 car76 yds0 TD
Khalil Herbert RB 4 car12 yds0 TD1 rec, 3 yds
Jahan Dotson WR 2/595 yds0 TD
Austin Hooper TE 1/19 yds0 TD
Drake London WR 1/68 yds0 TD
TB
Baker Mayfield QB 0/30 yds0 TD0 INT
Bucky Irving RB 27 car170 yds1 TD
Kenny Gainwell RB 25 car140 yds0 TD
Chris Godwin Jr. WR 0/10 yds0 TD
Kenny Gainwell RB 0/10 yds0 TD
Ted Hurst III WR 0/10 yds0 TD

How Leo’s read held up

What Leo expected before kickoff, the posted number he was calling against, and what happened. A winner call is only made when one side is above 60%; a yardage or points call needs a real gap from the line before Leo takes a side.

MarketLeo expectedLineActualLeo’s side and result
WinnerATL 55%—TB wonNO PICK
Total points45.143.516no side · within 1.5 pts
MarginTB by 3.5TB −2.5TB by 16TB −2.5 · RIGHT

“Main reason” names which of Leo’s two inputs was further off, how much the player was used, or how efficient he was when he was.

Passing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Baker Mayfield TB 215.5194 UNDER 0 194 Fewer attempts (3 vs 28.5 expected) RIGHT
Michael Penix Jr. ATL 228.5229 no side 125 104 Less efficient (5.2 vs 7.8 yds/att) NO LEAN

Rushing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Bucky Irving TB 70.573 no side 170 97 More efficient (6.3 vs 4 yds/carry) NO LEAN
Sean Tucker TB —21 no side 0 21
Bijan Robinson ATL 80.581 no side 76 5 On target NO LEAN
Khalil Herbert ATL 8.512 OVER 12 0 On target RIGHT

Receiving yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Drake London ATL 79.582 no side 8 74 Less efficient (1.3 vs 9.1 yds/tgt) NO LEAN
Tez Johnson TB 31.562 OVER 0 62 WRONG
Jahan Dotson ATL 23.539 OVER 95 56 More efficient (19 vs 10.2 yds/tgt) RIGHT
Chris Godwin Jr. TB 40.547 OVER 0 47 Fewer targets (1 vs 5.1 expected) WRONG
Ted Hurst III TB 30.529 no side 0 29 Fewer targets (1 vs 3.9 expected) NO LEAN
Olamide Zaccheaus ATL —6 no side 4 2 On target

Player and team statistics from the open nflverse dataset. Roles assigned by actual usage (most attempts, carries and targets), not depth chart.

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