Week 9 · Sunday 20:20

TBTB at CHICHI

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass

TB moneyline+230
CHI moneyline-285
SpreadCHI -6
Total46.5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears

Every game this week on Leo’s Week 9 card →

Leo gives the Chicago Bears a 68% chance to beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday night, November 8, at Soldier Field, in Week 9. That is above 60%, but the price is past the -230 limit, so the moneyline is a PASS. Leo projects 44.5 total points (posted total 46.5) and expects the Bears by 5.3 (posted spread Bears −6). Leo's calls: moneyline PASS, spread PASS and total Under 46.5. Starting quarterbacks: Baker Mayfield for the Buccaneers and Caleb Williams for the Bears.

This is a pre-game analysis page. Every stat above the Final result comes from games played before this one (through Week 8), and Leo’s numbers are an early read that updates until kickoff, when the last read is frozen. Market numbers are the latest posted line. Nothing here is a wager. Calls are a public test, graded after every game.

Leo’s read

Early read (Nov 3, 2:52 PM ET). Leo updates it every morning and again on game day; the last read before kickoff is frozen and graded. Player props are added on game day. Each player projection is rate × volume × opponent adjustment, and the columns show every input. None of this is a wager.

MoneylinePASSCHI -285, too expensive (limit -230)
SpreadPASSLeo within 1 point of the line
TotalUnder 46.5Leo 44.5

A call is graded after the game. PASS means no call: a moneyline needs more than 60% and a price better than -230; a spread needs Leo 1 point off the line and his two models agreeing on the winner; a total needs Leo 1.5 to 7 points off the line.

Leo win chanceCHI 68%chance to win; the moneyline call is in the box above
Leo total44.5points, both teams
Leo marginCHI by 5.3expected winning margin

Why Leo has the Bears at 68%

What moved Leo's win chance away from a coin flip for this game, from Leo's early read, which updates until kickoff.

Leo knows team results, quarterback play and the injury report as of its last read (Nov 3, 2:52 PM ET). It does not know game plans, weather changes or news after that read.

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Leo ratings, head to head

Each rating is 0 to 100 against the league this season, built from efficiency rather than record: 50 is average, every 15 points is one standard deviation. They describe the teams; the “Why Leo has” section above says which of them push Leo’s number.

TB This season CHI
30 QuarterbackEPA, accuracy, giveaways 56
39 Offenseefficiency, explosives, ball security 58
66 DefenseEPA allowed, pressure, takeaways 52
53 Overall 55
QB 46 · OFF 50 · DEF 47 Last season QB 53 · OFF 63 · DEF 48

The turnover battle

Interceptions thrown against interceptions caught, and the same for fumbles. Bold is the better side of each line.

TB Per game, this season CHI
0.88Interceptions thrown0.63
1.50Interceptions caught0.63
0.63Fumbles lost0.88
0.50Fumbles forced0.75
2.00Takeaways1.38
1.50Giveaways1.50
+0.5Net turnover margin-0.12

Efficiency detail

The inputs behind the ratings above, shown raw so you can check the work.

TB Offense CHI
-0.155EPA per dropback+0.132
-3.4Completion % over expected+2.0
2.9%Interception rate1.8%
8.8%Sack rate taken5.5%
+0.015Rush EPA per carry-0.014
5.1%Explosive play rate6.5%
TB Defense CHI
-0.101EPA allowed per play+0.001
5.45Yards allowed per play6.24
3.5%Sack rate4.7%
2.2%Interception rate forced1.5%

Team comparison

Season totals on both sides of the ball. Left column is TB, right is CHI.

TB This season CHI
8Games8
147.5Pass yards/g253.9
168.6Rush yards/g150.8
6Passing TD8
7Interceptions thrown5
220.1Pass yards allowed/g234.6
80Rush yards allowed/g86.8
12Interceptions forced5
TB Last season CHI
220.9Pass yards/g242.6
114.5Rush yards/g142.6
26Passing TD32
11Interceptions thrown12
254.8Pass yards allowed/g244.6
99.1Rush yards allowed/g131.4

This season

Starting quarterback, lead backs and top receivers, by actual usage this season, from games before this one only.

TB 2026

Quarterback Leo QB30

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Baker Mayfield568/110 61.8%679135.8 3 / 26.2

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Bucky Irving8147 72855
Kenny Gainwell858 28950

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Emeka Egbuka WR16 28/4957.1%240 402
Chris Godwin Jr. WR28 27/3577.1%243 30.40
Cade Otton TE7 19/3063.3%186 26.60
CHI 2026

Quarterback Leo QB56

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Caleb Williams5112/158 70.9%1267253.4 6 / 18

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
D'Andre Swift8143 5453.810
Kyle Monangai460 3245.43

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Luther Burden III WR18 42/5675%547 68.43
Rome Odunze WR28 28/4463.6%468 58.50
Colston Loveland TE8 33/5164.7%309 38.62

Last season

The same players' full prior season, for a baseline the early-season sample cannot give you.

TB 2025

Quarterback Leo QB46

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Baker Mayfield17343/543 63.2%3693217.2 26 / 116.8

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Bucky Irving10173 5883.41
Rachaad White17132 5724.34

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Emeka Egbuka WR117 63/12749.6%938 55.26
Mike Evans WR28 30/6248.4%368 463
Cade Otton TE15 59/8172.8%572 38.11
CHI 2025

Quarterback Leo QB53

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Caleb Williams19377/658 57.3%4560240 31 / 126.9

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
D'Andre Swift18255 12174.810
Kyle Monangai19190 8464.55

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Rome Odunze WR114 48/10247.1%749 53.56
DJ Moore WR219 61/10061%798 428
Colston Loveland TE18 70/10765.4%906 50.36

Touchdown leaders

Top three scrimmage touchdown scorers on each side this season, rushing and receiving.

TB 2026
  1. Bucky Irving RB 6 5 rush · 1 rec
  2. Emeka Egbuka WR 3 1 rush · 2 rec
  3. Sean Tucker RB 2 2 rush · 0 rec
CHI 2026
  1. D'Andre Swift RB 10 10 rush · 0 rec
  2. Kyle Monangai RB 3 3 rush · 0 rec
  3. Luther Burden III WR 3 0 rush · 3 rec

Player and team statistics from the open nflverse dataset. Roles assigned by actual usage (most attempts, carries and targets), not depth chart.

Keep reading

All Week 9 NFL predictions →Every game that week: Leo’s win chance, spread, total and touchdown scorer chances

Every NFL game · NFL team predictions · Leo’s NFL record · Injury tracker · Free NFL card by email

More Tampa Bay Buccaneers games

More Chicago Bears games