Week 7 · Monday 20:15
DAL
at
PHI
Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · Division game
DAL moneyline-218
PHI moneyline+180
SpreadDAL -4.5
Total43.5
Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles
Every game this week on Leo’s Week 7 card →
This is a pre-game analysis page. Every stat above the Final result comes from games played before this one (through Week 6), and Leo’s numbers were frozen before kickoff. Market numbers are the closing line. Nothing here is a wager — the pick gate stays closed until Leo shows it can beat that line.
Get Leo’s NFL card by email
Every game, Leo’s winner and total, and the most likely touchdown scorers, before kickoff. Free. Unsubscribe anytime.
Leo ratings — head to head
Each rating is 0–100 against the league this season, built from efficiency rather than record: 50 is average, every 15 points is one standard deviation. These describe the teams — they are not used to price the game.
DAL
This season
PHI
60
QuarterbackEPA, accuracy, giveaways
45
59
Offenseefficiency, explosives, ball security
40
21
DefenseEPA allowed, pressure, takeaways
48
40
Overall
44
QB 63 · OFF 60 · DEF 27
Last season
QB 57 · OFF 52 · DEF 59
The turnover battle
Interceptions thrown against interceptions caught, and the same for fumbles. Bold is the better side of each line.
| DAL |
Per game, this season |
PHI |
| 0.83 | Interceptions thrown | 0.67 |
|---|
| 0.17 | Interceptions caught | 0.50 |
|---|
| 0.17 | Fumbles lost | 0.17 |
|---|
| 1.00 | Fumbles forced | 1.00 |
|---|
| 1.17 | Takeaways | 1.50 |
|---|
| 1.00 | Giveaways | 0.83 |
|---|
| +0.17 | Net turnover margin | +0.67 |
|---|
Efficiency detail
The inputs behind the ratings above, shown raw so you can check the work.
| DAL |
Offense |
PHI |
| +0.158 | EPA per dropback | -0.046 |
|---|
| +1.4 | Completion % over expected | -1.1 |
|---|
| 2.0% | Interception rate | 1.7% |
|---|
| 3.6% | Sack rate taken | 7.0% |
|---|
| -0.020 | Rush EPA per carry | -0.095 |
|---|
| 5.2% | Explosive play rate | 4.0% |
|---|
| DAL |
Defense |
PHI |
| +0.166 | EPA allowed per play | -0.001 |
|---|
| 6.24 | Yards allowed per play | 5.4 |
|---|
| 2.6% | Sack rate | 2.7% |
|---|
| 0.4% | Interception rate forced | 0.9% |
|---|
Team comparison
Season totals on both sides of the ball. Left column is DAL, right is PHI.
| DAL |
This season |
PHI |
| 6 | Games | 6 |
|---|
| 273.2 | Pass yards/g | 191.3 |
|---|
| 76 | Rush yards/g | 82.2 |
|---|
| 10 | Passing TD | 9 |
|---|
| 5 | Interceptions thrown | 4 |
|---|
| 239.2 | Pass yards allowed/g | 253.8 |
|---|
| 149.8 | Rush yards allowed/g | 119.3 |
|---|
| 1 | Interceptions forced | 3 |
|---|
| DAL |
Last season |
PHI |
| 278.5 | Pass yards/g | 203.7 |
|---|
| 125.6 | Rush yards/g | 118.2 |
|---|
| 31 | Passing TD | 27 |
|---|
| 12 | Interceptions thrown | 7 |
|---|
| 265.9 | Pass yards allowed/g | 209.3 |
|---|
| 125.5 | Rush yards allowed/g | 121.7 |
|---|
This season
Starting quarterback, lead backs and top receivers, by actual usage this season — games before this one only.
DAL
2026
Quarterback
Leo QB60
| Player | G | C/ATT | Comp% | Yards | Y/G | TD/INT | Y/A |
|---|
| Dak Prescott | 6 | 163/246 |
66.3% | 1639 | 273.2 |
10 / 5 | 6.7 |
Running back
| Player | G | Car | Yards | Y/C | TD |
|---|
| Javonte Williams | 6 | 85 |
317 | 3.7 | 7 |
| Tyler Goodson | 3 | 11 |
34 | 3.1 | 0 |
Receivers
| Player | G | Rec/Tgt | Catch% | Yards | Y/G | TD |
|---|
| CeeDee Lamb WR1 | 6 |
48/69 | 69.6% | 577 |
96.2 | 4 |
| George Pickens WR2 | 6 |
33/52 | 63.5% | 428 |
71.3 | 1 |
| Jake Ferguson TE | 6 |
17/24 | 70.8% | 115 |
19.2 | 3 |
PHI
2026
Quarterback
Leo QB45
| Player | G | C/ATT | Comp% | Yards | Y/G | TD/INT | Y/A |
|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 5 | 89/154 |
57.8% | 933 | 186.6 |
8 / 3 | 6.1 |
Running back
| Player | G | Car | Yards | Y/C | TD |
|---|
| Saquon Barkley | 4 | 36 |
182 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Tank Bigsby | 4 | 28 |
91 | 3.3 | 1 |
Receivers
| Player | G | Rec/Tgt | Catch% | Yards | Y/G | TD |
|---|
| DeVonta Smith WR1 | 4 |
26/41 | 63.4% | 310 |
77.5 | 2 |
| Dontayvion Wicks WR2 | 6 |
19/32 | 59.4% | 284 |
47.3 | 1 |
| Dallas Goedert TE | 4 |
17/24 | 70.8% | 180 |
45 | 2 |
Last season
The same players' full prior season, for a baseline the early-season sample cannot give you.
DAL
2025
Quarterback
Leo QB63
| Player | G | C/ATT | Comp% | Yards | Y/G | TD/INT | Y/A |
|---|
| Dak Prescott | 17 | 404/600 |
67.3% | 4552 | 267.8 |
30 / 10 | 7.6 |
Running back
| Player | G | Car | Yards | Y/C | TD |
|---|
| Javonte Williams | 16 | 252 |
1201 | 4.8 | 11 |
| Malik Davis | 10 | 52 |
250 | 4.8 | 2 |
Receivers
| Player | G | Rec/Tgt | Catch% | Yards | Y/G | TD |
|---|
| George Pickens WR1 | 17 |
93/137 | 67.9% | 1429 |
84.1 | 9 |
| CeeDee Lamb WR2 | 13 |
75/117 | 64.1% | 1077 |
82.8 | 3 |
| Jake Ferguson TE | 17 |
82/102 | 80.4% | 600 |
35.3 | 8 |
PHI
2025
Quarterback
Leo QB57
| Player | G | C/ATT | Comp% | Yards | Y/G | TD/INT | Y/A |
|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 17 | 314/489 |
64.2% | 3392 | 199.5 |
26 / 6 | 6.9 |
Running back
| Player | G | Car | Yards | Y/C | TD |
|---|
| Saquon Barkley | 17 | 306 |
1246 | 4.1 | 7 |
| Tank Bigsby | 15 | 62 |
363 | 5.9 | 2 |
Receivers
| Player | G | Rec/Tgt | Catch% | Yards | Y/G | TD |
|---|
| A.J. Brown WR1 | 16 |
81/128 | 63.3% | 1028 |
64.3 | 7 |
| DeVonta Smith WR2 | 18 |
85/124 | 68.5% | 1078 |
59.9 | 4 |
| Dallas Goedert TE | 16 |
64/89 | 71.9% | 624 |
39 | 12 |
Touchdown leaders
Top three scrimmage touchdown scorers on each side this season, rushing and receiving.
DAL
2026
- Javonte Williams
RB
8
7 rush · 1 rec
- CeeDee Lamb
WR
4
0 rush · 4 rec
- Jake Ferguson
TE
3
0 rush · 3 rec
PHI
2026
- Darius Cooper
WR
4
0 rush · 4 rec
- Dallas Goedert
TE
2
0 rush · 2 rec
- DeVonta Smith
WR
2
0 rush · 2 rec
Player and team statistics from the open nflverse dataset. Roles assigned by actual usage — most attempts, carries and targets — not depth chart.