Week 6 · Sunday 13:00
PIT
at
TB
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors
PIT moneyline-142
TB moneyline+120
SpreadPIT -2.5
Total38.5
Pittsburgh Steelers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Every game this week on Leo’s Week 6 card →
This is a pre-game analysis page. Every stat above the Final result comes from games played before this one (through Week 5), and Leo’s numbers were frozen before kickoff. Market numbers are the closing line. Nothing here is a wager — the pick gate stays closed until Leo shows it can beat that line.
Leo’s read
What the model expected, frozen before kickoff (Oct 18, 12:33 PM ET). Each player projection is rate × volume × opponent adjustment — the columns show every input. None of this is a wager.
Leo win chanceTB 54%chance to win; information, not a pick
Leo total43.4points, both teams
Leo marginTB by 0.2expected winning margin
Passing yards
| Player | yds/att | att | opp adj | games | Leo |
|---|
| Aaron Rodgers PIT QB1 |
6.7 | 35.2 | 1 | 5 |
226 |
| Jalon Daniels TB QB1 |
6.6 | 23.6 | 1.1 | 3 |
157 |
Rushing yards
| Player | yds/carry | car | opp adj | games | Leo |
|---|
| Bucky Irving TB RB1 |
4.1 | 15.6 | 0.9 | 5 |
59 |
| Jaylen Warren PIT RB1 |
4.8 | 14.1 | 0.9 | 5 |
58 |
| Rico Dowdle PIT RB2 |
4.5 | 8.8 | 0.9 | 2 |
35 |
| Sean Tucker TB RB2 |
4.4 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 2 |
16 |
Receiving yards
| Player | yds/tgt | tgt | opp adj | games | Leo |
|---|
| DK Metcalf PIT WR1 |
7.3 | 7.2 | 1 | 5 |
56 |
| Germie Bernard PIT WR2 |
9 | 4.9 | 1 | 4 |
47 |
| Emeka Egbuka TB WR1 |
5.8 | 6.9 | 1.1 | 5 |
46 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. TB WR2 |
8.1 | 4.8 | 1.1 | 5 |
45 |
| Ted Hurst III TB WR3 |
8.9 | 4 | 1.1 | 4 |
41 |
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Injury report
The official Week 6 report for each side, as captured Mon, Oct 19, 4:19 PM ET. Teams file game statuses on the last practice day; anyone not listed is expected to play. Final inactives come 90 minutes before kickoff.
PIT
Game status
3 out · 5 questionable
- Out
Ben SkowronekWR
Calf
- Out
Roman WilsonWR
Finger
- Out
DeShon ElliottS
Knee
- Questionable
Rico DowdleRB
Toe
- Questionable
Pat FreiermuthTE
Calf
- Questionable
Keeanu BentonDT
Ankle
- Questionable
Jalen RamseyCB
Wrist
- Questionable
Jamel DeanCB
Ankle
TB
Game status
3 out · 1 doubtful · 4 questionable
- Out
Baker MayfieldQB
Thumb
- Out
David SillsWR
Hamstring
- Out
Antoine Winfield Jr.S
Rib
- Doubtful
Benjamin MorrisonCB
Quadricep
- Questionable
Sean TuckerRB
Quadricep
- Questionable
Josiah TrotterLB
Knee
- Questionable
SirVocea DennisLB
Ankle / Foot
- Questionable
Ayden GarnesCB
Ankle
Leo ratings — head to head
Each rating is 0–100 against the league this season, built from efficiency rather than record: 50 is average, every 15 points is one standard deviation. These describe the teams — they are not used to price the game.
PIT
This season
TB
44
QuarterbackEPA, accuracy, giveaways
35
47
Offenseefficiency, explosives, ball security
41
53
DefenseEPA allowed, pressure, takeaways
52
50
Overall
47
QB 51 · OFF 49 · DEF 52
Last season
QB 46 · OFF 50 · DEF 47
The turnover battle
Interceptions thrown against interceptions caught, and the same for fumbles. Bold is the better side of each line.
| PIT |
Per game, this season |
TB |
| 0.80 | Interceptions thrown | 1.00 |
|---|
| 0.80 | Interceptions caught | 1.00 |
|---|
| 0.40 | Fumbles lost | 0.80 |
|---|
| 1.40 | Fumbles forced | 0.60 |
|---|
| 2.20 | Takeaways | 1.60 |
|---|
| 1.20 | Giveaways | 1.80 |
|---|
| +1 | Net turnover margin | -0.2 |
|---|
Efficiency detail
The inputs behind the ratings above, shown raw so you can check the work.
| PIT |
Offense |
TB |
| -0.041 | EPA per dropback | -0.104 |
|---|
| -1.6 | Completion % over expected | -1.2 |
|---|
| 2.0% | Interception rate | 2.7% |
|---|
| 6.4% | Sack rate taken | 8.5% |
|---|
| +0.010 | Rush EPA per carry | +0.021 |
|---|
| 6.1% | Explosive play rate | 5.4% |
|---|
| PIT |
Defense |
TB |
| +0.018 | EPA allowed per play | -0.029 |
|---|
| 5.71 | Yards allowed per play | 5.69 |
|---|
| 4.0% | Sack rate | 2.8% |
|---|
| 1.4% | Interception rate forced | 1.6% |
|---|
Team comparison
Season totals on both sides of the ball. Left column is PIT, right is TB.
| PIT |
This season |
TB |
| 5 | Games | 5 |
|---|
| 246.8 | Pass yards/g | 190.4 |
|---|
| 101.2 | Rush yards/g | 133 |
|---|
| 10 | Passing TD | 4 |
|---|
| 4 | Interceptions thrown | 5 |
|---|
| 233.6 | Pass yards allowed/g | 234.6 |
|---|
| 103.4 | Rush yards allowed/g | 72.8 |
|---|
| 4 | Interceptions forced | 5 |
|---|
| PIT |
Last season |
TB |
| 210 | Pass yards/g | 220.9 |
|---|
| 101.1 | Rush yards/g | 114.5 |
|---|
| 26 | Passing TD | 26 |
|---|
| 10 | Interceptions thrown | 11 |
|---|
| 260.4 | Pass yards allowed/g | 254.8 |
|---|
| 115.9 | Rush yards allowed/g | 99.1 |
|---|
This season
Starting quarterback, lead backs and top receivers, by actual usage this season — games before this one only.
PIT
2026
Quarterback
Leo QB44
| Player | G | C/ATT | Comp% | Yards | Y/G | TD/INT | Y/A |
|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 5 | 110/184 |
59.8% | 1234 | 246.8 |
10 / 4 | 6.7 |
Running back
| Player | G | Car | Yards | Y/C | TD |
|---|
| Jaylen Warren | 5 | 70 |
410 | 5.9 | 1 |
| Rico Dowdle | 2 | 15 |
37 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receivers
| Player | G | Rec/Tgt | Catch% | Yards | Y/G | TD |
|---|
| DK Metcalf WR1 | 5 |
19/37 | 51.4% | 225 |
45 | 1 |
| Roman Wilson WR2 | 5 |
14/25 | 56% | 188 |
37.6 | 2 |
| Pat Freiermuth TE | 5 |
19/26 | 73.1% | 169 |
33.8 | 4 |
TB
2026
Quarterback
Leo QB35
| Player | G | C/ATT | Comp% | Yards | Y/G | TD/INT | Y/A |
|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 3 | 61/96 |
63.5% | 615 | 205 |
2 / 2 | 6.4 |
Running back
| Player | G | Car | Yards | Y/C | TD |
|---|
| Bucky Irving | 5 | 77 |
406 | 5.3 | 2 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 5 | 17 |
44 | 2.6 | 0 |
Receivers
| Player | G | Rec/Tgt | Catch% | Yards | Y/G | TD |
|---|
| Emeka Egbuka WR1 | 5 |
21/33 | 63.6% | 192 |
38.4 | 1 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. WR2 | 5 |
19/21 | 90.5% | 179 |
35.8 | 0 |
| Cade Otton TE | 5 |
18/27 | 66.7% | 182 |
36.4 | 0 |
Last season
The same players' full prior season, for a baseline the early-season sample cannot give you.
PIT
2025
Quarterback
Leo QB51
| Player | G | C/ATT | Comp% | Yards | Y/G | TD/INT | Y/A |
|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 17 | 344/531 |
64.8% | 3468 | 204 |
24 / 8 | 6.5 |
Running back
| Player | G | Car | Yards | Y/C | TD |
|---|
| Jaylen Warren | 17 | 223 |
1001 | 4.5 | 6 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 18 | 120 |
557 | 4.6 | 5 |
Receivers
| Player | G | Rec/Tgt | Catch% | Yards | Y/G | TD |
|---|
| DK Metcalf WR1 | 16 |
61/104 | 58.7% | 892 |
55.8 | 6 |
| Calvin Austin III WR2 | 15 |
34/61 | 55.7% | 380 |
25.3 | 3 |
| Jonnu Smith TE | 18 |
40/57 | 70.2% | 221 |
12.3 | 2 |
TB
2025
Quarterback
Leo QB46
| Player | G | C/ATT | Comp% | Yards | Y/G | TD/INT | Y/A |
|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 17 | 343/543 |
63.2% | 3693 | 217.2 |
26 / 11 | 6.8 |
Running back
| Player | G | Car | Yards | Y/C | TD |
|---|
| Bucky Irving | 10 | 173 |
588 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Rachaad White | 17 | 132 |
572 | 4.3 | 4 |
Receivers
| Player | G | Rec/Tgt | Catch% | Yards | Y/G | TD |
|---|
| Emeka Egbuka WR1 | 17 |
63/127 | 49.6% | 938 |
55.2 | 6 |
| Mike Evans WR2 | 8 |
30/62 | 48.4% | 368 |
46 | 3 |
| Cade Otton TE | 15 |
59/81 | 72.8% | 572 |
38.1 | 1 |
Touchdown props
Leo’s chance that each player scores a rushing or receiving touchdown in this game, the three most likely on each side, from its last read before kickoff.
Most likely to score: Bucky Irving (TB, 47%) and Jaylen Warren (PIT, 41%). In 2023 to 2025, Leo’s top pick in a game scored 47% of the time, and at least one of its top two scored 69% of the time.
PIT
Leo’s chance
- Jaylen Warren
RB1
41%
no TD
- DK Metcalf
WR1
32%
no TD
- Pat Freiermuth
TE1
25%
no TD
TB
Leo’s chance
- Bucky Irving
RB1
47%
no TD
- Emeka Egbuka
WR1
34%
scored
- Cade Otton
TE1
20%
no TD
Final result
PIT 26
– 19 TB (OT)
How the game was played
Quarterback, the backs who carried it and the receivers who caught it.
PIT
| Aaron Rodgers QB |
33/49 | 253 yds | 2 TD | 1 INT |
| Jaylen Warren RB |
14 car | 50 yds | 0 TD | 2 rec, 28 yds |
| Rico Dowdle RB |
7 car | 40 yds | 0 TD | 3 rec, 9 yds |
| DK Metcalf WR |
11/15 | 93 yds | 0 TD | |
| Germie Bernard WR |
11/12 | 87 yds | 1 TD | |
| Jaylen Warren RB |
2/4 | 28 yds | 0 TD | |
TB
| Jalon Daniels QB |
22/43 | 164 yds | 1 TD | 2 INT |
| Bucky Irving RB |
19 car | 46 yds | 0 TD | 2 rec, 3 yds |
| Kenny Gainwell RB |
2 car | 17 yds | 0 TD | 1 rec, 7 yds |
| Emeka Egbuka WR |
7/16 | 48 yds | 1 TD | |
| Ted Hurst III WR |
3/6 | 40 yds | 0 TD | |
| Chris Godwin Jr. WR |
4/8 | 37 yds | 0 TD | |
How Leo’s read held up
What Leo expected before kickoff, the posted number he was calling against, and what happened. A winner call is only made when one side is above 60%; a yardage or points call needs a real gap from the line before Leo takes a side.
| Market | Leo expected | Line | Actual | Leo’s side and result |
|---|
| Winner | TB 54% | — | PIT won | NO PICK |
| Total points | 43.4 | 38.5 | 45 | no side · within 1.5 pts |
| Margin | TB by 0.2 | PIT −1.5 | PIT by 7 | TB +1.5 · WRONG |
“Main reason” names which of Leo’s two inputs was further off — how much the player was used, or how efficient he was when he was.
Passing yards
| Player | Line | Leo | Side | Actual | Off by | Main reason | Result |
|---|
| Aaron Rodgers PIT |
226.5 | 226 |
no side |
253 |
27 |
More attempts (49 vs 35.2 expected) |
NO LEAN |
| Jalon Daniels TB |
172.5 | 157 |
UNDER |
164 |
7 |
On target |
RIGHT |
Rushing yards
| Player | Line | Leo | Side | Actual | Off by | Main reason | Result |
|---|
| Bucky Irving TB |
64.5 | 59 |
UNDER |
46 |
13 |
Less efficient (2.4 vs 4.1 yds/carry) |
RIGHT |
| Jaylen Warren PIT |
60.5 | 58 |
no side |
50 |
8 |
On target |
NO LEAN |
| Rico Dowdle PIT |
17.5 | 35 |
OVER |
40 |
5 |
On target |
RIGHT |
Receiving yards
| Player | Line | Leo | Side | Actual | Off by | Main reason | Result |
|---|
| Germie Bernard PIT |
44.5 | 47 |
OVER |
87 |
40 |
More targets (12 vs 4.9 expected) |
RIGHT |
| DK Metcalf PIT |
51.5 | 56 |
OVER |
93 |
37 |
More targets (15 vs 7.2 expected) |
RIGHT |
| Chris Godwin Jr. TB |
26.5 | 45 |
OVER |
37 |
8 |
On target |
RIGHT |
| Emeka Egbuka TB |
36.5 | 46 |
OVER |
48 |
2 |
On target |
RIGHT |
| Ted Hurst III TB |
11.5 | 41 |
OVER |
40 |
1 |
On target |
RIGHT |
Player and team statistics from the open nflverse dataset. Roles assigned by actual usage — most attempts, carries and targets — not depth chart.